A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

Promoting student well-being and resilience at law school

University can be a psychologically distressing place for students, particularly those studying law. Legal academics have been concerned about this for some time. In the United States, in particular, it has been found that symptoms of psychological distress rise signifi cantly for students in their fi rst year of law (compared to levels in the general population at that time), and persist throughout the degree to post-graduation. Recognised symptoms include depression, obsessive compulsive behaviour, feelings of inadequacy and inferiority, anxiety, hostility, paranoia, and social alienation. Many students experience law school as an isolating, adversarial and competitive environment, which impacts negatively on their values and motivation...

Drugs in pregnancy and labour

27. Drugs in pregnancy and labour 27.1 Introduction 27.2 Common complaints in pregnancy and labour and their treatments 27.2.1 Pre-eclampsia and eclampsia. 27.2.2 Suppression of early labour 27.2.3 Neonatal respiratory distress syndrome 27.2.4 Postpartum haemorrhage 27.2.5 Prolactin excess 27.2.6 Nausea

A prospective study of pregnancy weight gain in Australian women

Background: While weight gain during pregnancy is regarded as important, there has not been a prospective study of measured weight gain in pregnancy in Australia. This study aimed to prospectively evaluate pregnancy-related weight gain against the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendations in women receiving antenatal care in a setting where ongoing weight monitoring is not part of routine clinical practice, to describe women's knowledge of weight gain recommendations and to describe the health professional advice received relating to gestational weight gain (GWG). Methods: Pregnant women were recruited ≤20 weeks of gestation (n = 664) from a tertiary obstetric hospital between August 2010 to July 2011 for this prospective observational study. Outcome measures were weight gain from pre-pregnancy to 36 weeks of gestation, weight gain knowledge and health professional advice received. Results: Thirty-six percent of women gained weight according to guidelines. Twenty-six percent gained inadequate weight, and 38% gained excess weight. Fifty-six percent of overweight women gained weight in excess of the IOM guidelines compared with 30% of those who started with a healthy weight (P < 0.001). At 16 weeks, 47% of participants were unsure of the weight gain recommendations for them. Sixty-two percent of women reported that the health professionals caring for them during this pregnancy ‘never’ or ‘rarely’ offered advice about how much weight to gain. Conclusions: The prevalence of inappropriate gestational weight gain in this study was high. The majority of women do not know their recommended weight gain. The advice women received from health professionals relating to healthy weight gain in pregnancy could be improved.

Weight gain and nutritional intake in obese pregnant women : some clues for intervention

Aim:  Maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes for mothers and offspring. Strategies to better manage maternal obesity are urgently needed; however, there is little evidence to assist the development of nutrition interventions during antenatal care. The present study aimed to assess maternal weight gain and dietary intakes of overweight and obese women participating in an exercise trial. Results will assist the development of interventions for the management of maternal overweight and obesity. Methods:  Fifty overweight and obese pregnant women receiving antenatal care were recruited and provided dietary and weight data at baseline (12 weeks), 28 weeks, 36 weeks gestation and 6 weeks post-partum. Data collected were compared with current nutritional and weight gain recommendations. Associations used Pearson's correlation coefficient, and ANOVA assessed dietary changes over time, P < 0.05. Results:  Mean prepregnancy body mass index was 34.4 ± 6.6 kg/m2. Gestational weight gain was 10.6 ± 6 kg with a wide range (−4.1 to 23.0 kg). 52% of women gained excessive weight (>11.5 kg for overweight and >9 kg for obese women). Gestational weight gain correlated with post-partum weight retention (P < 0.001). Dietary intakes did not change significantly during pregnancy. No women achieved dietary fat or dietary iron recommendations, only 11% achieved adequate dietary folate, and 38% achieved adequate dietary calcium. Very few women achieved recommended food group servings for pregnancy, with 83% consuming excess servings of non-core foods. Conclusion:  Results provide evidence that early intervention and personalised support for obese pregnant women may help achieve individualised goals for maternal weight gain and dietary adequacy, but this needs to be tested in a clinical setting.

Developing a best practice model of refugee maternity care

Background: About one third of refugee and humanitarian entrants to Australia are women age 12—44 years. Pregnant women from refugee backgrounds may have been exposed to a range of medical and psychosocial issues that can impact maternal, fetal and neonatal health. Research question: What are the key elements that characterise a best practice model of maternity care for women from refugee backgrounds? This paper outlines the findings of a project which aimed at developing such a model at a major maternity hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Participants and methods: This multifaceted project included a literature review, consultations with key stakeholders, a chart audit of hospital use by African-born women in 2006 that included their obstetric outcomes, a survey of 23 African-born women who gave birth at the hospital in 2007—08, and a survey of 168 hospital staff members. Results: The maternity chart audit identified complex medical and social histories among the women, including anaemia, female circumcision, hepatitis B, thrombocytopenia, and barriers to access antenatal care. The rates of caesarean sections and obstetric complications increased over time. Women and hospital staff surveys indicated the need for adequate interpreting services, education programs for women regarding antenatal and postnatal care, and professional development for health care staff to enhance cultural responsiveness. Discussion and conclusions: The findings point towards the need for a model of refugee maternity care that comprises continuity of carer, quality interpreter services, educational strategies for both women and healthcare professionals, and the provision of psychosocial support to women from refugee backgrounds.

Improving health behaviours during pregnancy: A new direction for the pregnancy handheld record

Obstetric documentation processes may influence the clinical, behavioural, and psychological outcomes of pregnancy, although recent alterations to integrate obstetric documentation with pregnancy handheld records have been unsuccessful. Woman-held records as a companion to usual obstetric documentation have the potential to improve pregnancy-related health behaviours with a demonstrated association with maternal and infant health outcomes, and recommendations for their format and content are provided.

Pregnancy as public property: The experience of couples following diagnosis of a foetal anomaly

Background: Pregnant women find themselves subject to comments and questions from people in public areas. Normally, becoming ‘public property’ is considered friendly and is relatively easy for pregnant women to deal with. However, following diagnosis of a fetal anomaly, the experience of being public property can exacerbate the emotional turmoil experienced by couples. Original research question: What is the experience of couples who continue pregnancy following the diagnosis of a fetal anomaly? Method: The study used an interpretive design informed by Merleau-Ponty and this paper reports on a subset of findings. Thirty-one interviews with pregnant women and their partners were undertaken following the diagnosis of a serious or lethal fetal anomaly. Women were between 25 and 38 weeks gestation at the time of their first interview. The non-directive interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and the transcripts were thematically analysed. Findings: A prominent theme that emerged during data analysis was that pregnancy is embodied therefore physically evident and ‘public’. Women found it difficult to deal with being public property when the fetus had a serious or lethal anomaly. Some women avoided social situations; others did not disclose the fetal condition but gave minimal or avoidant answers to minimise distress to themselves and others. The male participants were not visibly pregnant and they could continue life in public without being subject to the public’s gaze, but they were very aware and concerned about its impact on their partner. Conclusion: The public tend to assume that pregnancy is normal and will produce a healthy baby. This becomes problematic for women who have a fetus with an anomaly. Women use strategies to help them cope with becoming public property during pregnancy. Midwives can play an important role in reducing the negative consequences of a woman becoming public property following the diagnosis of a fetal anomaly.

The Multidimensional Loss Scale : validating a cross cultural instrument for measuring loss in Burmese refugees

The Multidimensional Loss Scale: Initial Development and Psychometric Evaluation The Multidimensional Loss Scale (MLS) represents the first instrument designed specifically to measure loss in refugee populations. Researchers developed initial items of the Multidimensional Loss Scale to assess Experience of Loss Events and Loss Distress in a culturally sensitive manner across multiple domains (social, material, intra-personal and cultural). A sample of 70 recently settled Burmese adult refugees completed a battery of questionnaires, including new scale items. Analyses explored the scale’s factor structure, internal consistency, convergent validity and divergent validity. Principal Axis Factoring supported a five-factor model: Loss of Symbolic Self, Loss of Interdependence, Loss of Home, Interpersonal Loss, and Loss of Intrapersonal Integrity. Chronbach’s Alphas indicated satisfactory internal consistency for Experience of Loss Events (.85) and Loss Distress (.92). Convergent and divergent validity of Loss Distress were supported by moderate correlations with interpersonal grief and trauma symptoms and weak correlations with depression and anxiety. The new scale was well received by people from refugee backgrounds and shows promise for application in future research and practice

The role of Ureaplasma urealyticum in adverse pregnancy outcome

We investigated Ureaplasma urealyticum genital tract colonisation rates in an Australian population to determine whether colonisation was associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. Women attending an antenatal clinic were evaluated for lower genital tract colonisation at their first antenatal visit (162 women) and at 28 weeks gestation (120 women). Placentas from 92 women were cultured. U. urealyticum was the predominant isolate from the lower (57.4%) and upper (17.4%) genital tract in this population of pregnant women. U. urealyticum was a persistent coloniser during mid-trimester of pregnancy (in 88% of women colonised) whereas M. hominis, G. vaginalis, and Group B streptococcus were present as transient flora of the lower genital tract. Lower genital tract colonisation during pregnancy was not directly associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. However preterm delivery in afebrile, asymptomatic women, could possibly be associated with chorioamnionitis (four of 16 preterm births). Screening of women with a history of preterm birth may prevent upper genital tract infections and preterm delivery.

Subacute effects of ecstasy on mood : an exploration of associated risk factors

Ecstasy use may result in lowered mood, anxiety or aggression in the days following use. Yet, few studies have investigated what factors increase the risk of experiencing such symptoms. Ecstasy users (at least once in the last 12 months) who subsequently took ecstasy (n=35) over the next week, were compared on measures of mood, sleep, stress and drug use, with those who abstained (n=21) that week. Measures were administered the week prior to ecstasy use and 1 and 3 days following use, or the equivalent day for abstainers. Mood symptoms were assessed using the Kessler-10 self-report psychological distress scale, a subjective mood rating (1-10), and the depression, anxiety and hostility items of the clinician-rated Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. Timeline followback methods were used to collect information on drug use and life stress in the past month. Self-reported sleep quality was also assessed. Ecstasy use was not associated with subacute depressive, anxiety or aggressive symptoms. Rather, lowered mood and increased psychological distress were associated with self-reported hours and quality of sleep obtained during the 3-day follow up. These findings highlight the importance of considering sleep disruption in understanding the short-term mood effects of ecstasy use.

Preliminary reliability and validity testing of a self-efficacy questionnaire for Chinese family caregivers

Objectives: To develop and test preliminary reliability and validity of a Self-Efficacy Questionnaire for Chinese Family Caregivers (SEQCFC). Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 196 family caregivers (CGs) of people with dementia (CGs) was conducted to determine the factor structure of a SEQCFC of people with dementia. Following factor analyses, preliminary testing was performed, including internal consistency, 4-week test retest reliability, and construct and convergent validity. Results: Factor analyses with direct oblimin rotation were performed. Eight items were removed and five subscales(selfefficacy for gathering information about treatment, symptoms and health care; obtaining support; responding to behaviour disturbances; managing household, personal and medical care; and managing distress associated with caregiving) were identified. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the whole scale and for each subscale were all over 0.80. The 4-week testretest reliabilities for the whole scale and for each subscale ranged from 0.64 to 0.85. The convergent validity was acceptable. Conclusions: Evidence for the preliminary testing of the SEQCFC was encouraging. A future follow-up study using confirmatory factor analysis with a new sample from different recruitment centres in Shanghai will be conducted. Future psychometric property testings of the questionnaire will be required for CGs from other regions of mainland China.

Refugee Mental Health Interventions

There is great diversity in the type of interventions carried out under the rubric of “refugee mental health.” This is partly due to the holistic ecological and psychosocial approaches that have come to dominate research and humanitarian understandings of refugee mental health. The diverse application of psychosocial principles in refugee mental health is also extended by the many varied locations in which such interventions are carried out. Guidelines have been developed to aid would-be practitioners of mental health care amongst refugee communities. However, challenges remain in demonstrating the effectiveness of the approaches used. The maxim “do no harm” which must guide all interventions in this area has nonetheless been threatened at times by well-meaning, yet misguided actions. Despite these issues, there is much promise that together with refugees themselves, steps can be taken to promote well-being and relieve distress in communities of people displaced by conflict.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Thai family support (TFS) : working with families of young substance users in primary health care

Living with substance users negatively impacts upon family members in many ways, and distress is common. Despite these deep and wide-ranging impacts, supportive interventions for family members in their own right are rarely available. Thailand has substantial and growing problems with substance use, and there is very little support or family members of drug users, especially in community setting. The Thai Family Support (TFS) program was designed for implementation in primary health care units (PCUs) in Thailand. TFS was based on two approaches with existing empirical support in Western contexts—the 5-step method and CRAFT—with adaptations to a Thai setting that included integration with Buddhist practices. Its aims were to increase well-being of family members, reduce mental distress, improve family relationships between family members, and engage substance users in behaviour change. A small-scale randomised controlled trial on TFS with a Delayed Treatment control was conducted, with assessments at 8 weeks (Post 1) and 20-24 weeks (Post 2). Structured interviews with participants and PCU staff and an examination of five case studies augmented the quantitative results. Mixed Model Analyses were applied to quantitative outcomes, and thematic analysis was used for qualitative data. Thirty-six participants (18 in each of Immediate and Delayed Conditions) were recruited. A significant difference at Baseline between the two conditions was observed on the Thai GHQ-28 and Gender, but it was not possible to statistically control for these effects. There was a significant Time by Condition interaction on the Thai GHQ-28, WHOQOL-BREF-THAI and FAS, reflecting greater improvements in the Immediate condition by Post 1, but with the Delayed condition meeting or exceeding that effect by Post 2. On FES Cohesion and Conflict, there were falls across conditions at Post 2, but only Cohesion also showed a Time by Condition interaction, and that effect was consistent with a delayed impact of treatment. Overall, TFS by PCU staff in the Delayed Condition gave similar results to TFS conducted by the researcher, supporting the viability of its dissemination to standard health services. Qualitative data also confirmed the quantitative results. Most participants reported physiological and psychological improvements even though their substance-using relative did not change their drug use behaviour. After completing TFS, participants reported increased knowledge, group support and sharing feeling, having positive patient-professional relationship, having greater knowledge of substance abuse and social support. In particular, they changed their behaviour towards the substance user, resulting in improvements to family relationships. PCU staff gave similar responses on the efficacy of TFS, and saw it as feasible for routine use, although some implementation challenges were identified. The cultural adaptation and in particular the religious activities, were recognised by participants and PCU staff as an important component of TFS to support psychological health and well-being. Findings from this study showed the impact of substance use on family members and difficulties that they experienced when living with the substance users, resulting distresses and burden that may develop severe mental health disease. Drug use policies should be modified to support family members and response to their needs effectively for early prevention. This study also gave preliminary support for application of the TFS program in rural primary care settings and identified some policies that will be required for it to be disseminated more broadly.