Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

The role of cardiopulmonary signals in the dynamics of the eye's wavefront aberrations

Abstract—The role of cardiopulmonary signals in the dynamics of wavefront aberrations in the eye has been examined. Synchronous measurement of the eye’s wavefront aberrations, cardiac function, blood pulse, and respiration signals were taken for a group of young, healthy subjects. Two focusing stimuli, three breathing patterns, as well as natural and cycloplegic eye conditions were examined. A set of tools, including time–frequency coherence and its metrics, has been proposed to acquire a detailed picture of the interactions of the cardiopulmonary system with the eye’s wavefront aberrations. The results showed that the coherence of the blood pulse and its harmonics with the eye’s aberrations was, on average, weak (0.4 ± 0.15), while the coherence of the respiration signal with eye’s aberrations was, on average, moderate (0.53 ± 0.14). It was also revealed that there were significant intervals during which high coherence occurred. On average, the coherence was high (>0.75) during 16% of the recorded time, for the blood pulse, and 34% of the time for the respiration signal. A statistically significant decrease in average coherence was noted for the eye’s aberrations with respiration in the case of fast controlled breathing (0.5 Hz). The coherence between the blood pulse and the defocus was significantly larger for the far target than for the near target condition. After cycloplegia, the coherence of defocus with the blood pulse significantly decreased, while this was not the case for the other aberrations. There was also a noticeable, but not statistically significant, increase in the coherence of the comatic term and respiration in that case. By using nonstationary measures of signal coherence, a more detailed picture of interactions between the cardiopulmonary signals and eye’s wavefront aberrations has emerged.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

Ions in motor vehicle exhaust and their dispersion near busy roads

Measurements in the exhaust plume of a petrol-driven motor car showed that molecular cluster ions of both signs were present in approximately equal amounts. The emission rate increased sharply with engine speed while the charge symmetry remained unchanged. Measurements at the kerbside of nine motorways and five city roads showed that the mean total cluster ion concentration near city roads (603 cm-3) was about one-half of that near motorways (1211 cm-3) and about twice as high as that in the urban background (269 cm-3). Both positive and negative ion concentrations near a motorway showed a significant linear increase with traffic density (R2=0.3 at p<0.05) and correlated well with each other in real time (R2=0.87 at p<0.01). Heavy duty diesel vehicles comprised the main source of ions near busy roads. Measurements were conducted as a function of downwind distance from two motorways carrying around 120-150 vehicles per minute. Total traffic-related cluster ion concentrations decreased rapidly with distance, falling by one-half from the closest approach of 2m to 5m of the kerb. Measured concentrations decreased to background at about 15m from the kerb when the wind speed was 1.3 m s-1, this distance being greater at higher wind speed. The number and net charge concentrations of aerosol particles were also measured. Unlike particles that were carried downwind to distances of a few hundred metres, cluster ions emitted by motor vehicles were not present at more than a few tens of metres from the road.

On-board mass monitoring of heavy vehicles : results of testing program

The Transport Certification Australia on-board mass feasibility project is testing various on-board mass devices in a range of heavy vehicles (HVs). Extensive field tests of on-board mass measurement systems for HVs have been conducted during 2008. These tests were of accuracy, robustness and tamper-evidence of heavy vehicle on-board mass telematics. All the systems tested showed accuracies within approximately +/- 500 kg of gross combination mass or approximately +/- 2% of the attendant weighbridge reading. Analysis of the dynamic data also showed encouraging results and has raised the possibility of use of such dynamic information in tamper evidence in two areas. This analysis was to determine if the use of averaged dynamic data could identify potential tampering or incorrect operating procedures as well as the possibility of dynamic measurements flagging a tamper event by the use of metrics including a tampering index (TIX). Technical and business options to detect tamper events will now be developed during implementation of regulatory OBM system application to Australian heavy vehicles (HVs).

Selection-adaption-retention dynamics and variety in organisational routines

The notion of routines as mechanisms for achieving stability and change in organisations is well established in the organisational theory literature (Becker, 2004). However the relationship between the dynamics of selection, adaptation and retention and the increase or decrease in the varieties of routines which are the result of these processes, is not as well established theoretically or empirically. This paper investigates the processes associated with the evolution of an inter-organisational routine over time. The paper contributes to theory by advancing a conceptual clarification between the dynamics of organisational routines which produce variation, and the varieties of routines which are generated as a result of such processes; and an explanation for the relationship between selection, adaptation and retention dynamics and the creation of variety. The research is supported by analysis of empirical data pertaining to the procurement of engineering assets in a large asset intensive organisation.

The Heavy Vehicle Study : a case-control study investigating risk factors for crash in long distance heavy vehicle drivers in Australia

Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.

Dynamics of pattern writing and erasure in photorefractive lithium niobate for data storage applications

The present rate of technological advance continues to place significant demands on data storage devices. The sheer amount of digital data being generated each year along with consumer expectations, fuels these demands. At present, most digital data is stored magnetically, in the form of hard disk drives or on magnetic tape. The increase in areal density (AD) of magnetic hard disk drives over the past 50 years has been of the order of 100 million times, and current devices are storing data at ADs of the order of hundreds of gigabits per square inch. However, it has been known for some time that the progress in this form of data storage is approaching fundamental limits. The main limitation relates to the lower size limit that an individual bit can have for stable storage. Various techniques for overcoming these fundamental limits are currently the focus of considerable research effort. Most attempt to improve current data storage methods, or modify these slightly for higher density storage. Alternatively, three dimensional optical data storage is a promising field for the information storage needs of the future, offering very high density, high speed memory. There are two ways in which data may be recorded in a three dimensional optical medium; either bit-by-bit (similar in principle to an optical disc medium such as CD or DVD) or by using pages of bit data. Bit-by-bit techniques for three dimensional storage offer high density but are inherently slow due to the serial nature of data access. Page-based techniques, where a two-dimensional page of data bits is written in one write operation, can offer significantly higher data rates, due to their parallel nature. Holographic Data Storage (HDS) is one such page-oriented optical memory technique. This field of research has been active for several decades, but with few commercial products presently available. Another page-oriented optical memory technique involves recording pages of data as phase masks in a photorefractive medium. A photorefractive material is one by which the refractive index can be modified by light of the appropriate wavelength and intensity, and this property can be used to store information in these materials. In phase mask storage, two dimensional pages of data are recorded into a photorefractive crystal, as refractive index changes in the medium. A low-intensity readout beam propagating through the medium will have its intensity profile modified by these refractive index changes and a CCD camera can be used to monitor the readout beam, and thus read the stored data. The main aim of this research was to investigate data storage using phase masks in the photorefractive crystal, lithium niobate (LiNbO3). Firstly the experimental methods for storing the two dimensional pages of data (a set of vertical stripes of varying lengths) in the medium are presented. The laser beam used for writing, whose intensity profile is modified by an amplitudemask which contains a pattern of the information to be stored, illuminates the lithium niobate crystal and the photorefractive effect causes the patterns to be stored as refractive index changes in the medium. These patterns are read out non-destructively using a low intensity probe beam and a CCD camera. A common complication of information storage in photorefractive crystals is the issue of destructive readout. This is a problem particularly for holographic data storage, where the readout beam should be at the same wavelength as the beam used for writing. Since the charge carriers in the medium are still sensitive to the read light field, the readout beam erases the stored information. A method to avoid this is by using thermal fixing. Here the photorefractive medium is heated to temperatures above 150�C; this process forms an ionic grating in the medium. This ionic grating is insensitive to the readout beam and therefore the information is not erased during readout. A non-contact method for determining temperature change in a lithium niobate crystal is presented in this thesis. The temperature-dependent birefringent properties of the medium cause intensity oscillations to be observed for a beam propagating through the medium during a change in temperature. It is shown that each oscillation corresponds to a particular temperature change, and by counting the number of oscillations observed, the temperature change of the medium can be deduced. The presented technique for measuring temperature change could easily be applied to a situation where thermal fixing of data in a photorefractive medium is required. Furthermore, by using an expanded beam and monitoring the intensity oscillations over a wide region, it is shown that the temperature in various locations of the crystal can be monitored simultaneously. This technique could be used to deduce temperature gradients in the medium. It is shown that the three dimensional nature of the recording medium causes interesting degradation effects to occur when the patterns are written for a longer-than-optimal time. This degradation results in the splitting of the vertical stripes in the data pattern, and for long writing exposure times this process can result in the complete deterioration of the information in the medium. It is shown in that simply by using incoherent illumination, the original pattern can be recovered from the degraded state. The reason for the recovery is that the refractive index changes causing the degradation are of a smaller magnitude since they are induced by the write field components scattered from the written structures. During incoherent erasure, the lower magnitude refractive index changes are neutralised first, allowing the original pattern to be recovered. The degradation process is shown to be reversed during the recovery process, and a simple relationship is found relating the time at which particular features appear during degradation and recovery. A further outcome of this work is that the minimum stripe width of 30 ìm is required for accurate storage and recovery of the information in the medium, any size smaller than this results in incomplete recovery. The degradation and recovery process could be applied to an application in image scrambling or cryptography for optical information storage. A two dimensional numerical model based on the finite-difference beam propagation method (FD-BPM) is presented and used to gain insight into the pattern storage process. The model shows that the degradation of the patterns is due to the complicated path taken by the write beam as it propagates through the crystal, and in particular the scattering of this beam from the induced refractive index structures in the medium. The model indicates that the highest quality pattern storage would be achieved with a thin 0.5 mm medium; however this type of medium would also remove the degradation property of the patterns and the subsequent recovery process. To overcome the simplistic treatment of the refractive index change in the FD-BPM model, a fully three dimensional photorefractive model developed by Devaux is presented. This model shows significant insight into the pattern storage, particularly for the degradation and recovery process, and confirms the theory that the recovery of the degraded patterns is possible since the refractive index changes responsible for the degradation are of a smaller magnitude. Finally, detailed analysis of the pattern formation and degradation dynamics for periodic patterns of various periodicities is presented. It is shown that stripe widths in the write beam of greater than 150 ìm result in the formation of different types of refractive index changes, compared with the stripes of smaller widths. As a result, it is shown that the pattern storage method discussed in this thesis has an upper feature size limit of 150 ìm, for accurate and reliable pattern storage.

The effect of track defects on the dynamics of wagons under brake-traction torque

Track defects cause profound effects to the stability of railway wagons; normally such problems are modeled for cases of wagons running at constant speed. Brake/traction torque adversely affect the wheel-rail contact characteristics but they are not explicitly considered in most of the wagon-track interaction simulation packages. This research developed a program that can simulate the longitudinal behaviour of railway wagon dynamics under the actions of braking or traction torques. This paper describes the mathematical formulation of modelling of a full wagon system using a fixed coordinate reference system. The effect of both the lateral and the vertical track geometry defects to the dynamics of wagons is reported; sensitivity of traction/brake state is analysed through a series of numerical examples.

A coupled meshless technique/molecular dynamics approach for deformation characterization of monocrystalline metal

This paper presents a multiscale study using the coupled Meshless technique/Molecular Dynamics (M2) for exploring the deformation mechanism of mono-crystalline metal (focus on copper) under uniaxial tension. In M2, an advanced transition algorithm using transition particles is employed to ensure the compatibility of both displacements and their gradients, and an effective local quasi-continuum approach is also applied to obtain the equivalent continuum strain energy density based on the atomistic poentials and Cauchy-Born rule. The key parameters used in M2 are firstly investigated using a benchmark problem. Then M2 is applied to the multiscale simulation for a mono-crystalline copper bar. It has found that the mono-crystalline copper has very good elongation property, and the ultimate strength and Young's modulus are much higher than those obtained in macro-scale.

Autonomous underwater vehicle trajectory design coupled with predictive ocean models : a case study

Data collection using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is increasing in importance within the oceano- graphic research community. Contrary to traditional moored or static platforms, mobile sensors require intelligent planning strategies to manoeuvre through the ocean. However, the ability to navigate to high-value locations and collect data with specific scientific merit is worth the planning efforts. In this study, we examine the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, and aid in planning the trajectory that the vehicle executes during the sampling mission. The objectives are: a) to provide near-real time, in situ measurements to a large-scale ocean model to increase the skill of future predictions, and b) to utilize ocean model predictions as a component in an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We present an algorithm designed to generate paths for AUVs to track a dynamically evolving ocean feature utilizing ocean model predictions. This builds on previous work in this area by incorporating the predicted current velocities into the path planning to assist in solving the 3-D motion planning problem of steering an AUV between two selected locations. We present simulation results for tracking a fresh water plume by use of our algorithm. Additionally, we present experimental results from field trials that test the skill of the model used as well as the incorporation of the model predictions into an AUV trajectory planner. These results indicate a modest, but measurable, improvement in surfacing error when the model predictions are incorporated into the planner.

A geometric approach to trajectory design for an autonomous underwater vehicle : surveying the bulbous bow of a ship

In this paper, we present a control strategy design technique for an autonomous underwater vehicle based on solutions to the motion planning problem derived from differential geometric methods. The motion planning problem is motivated by the practical application of surveying the hull of a ship for implications of harbor and port security. In recent years, engineers and researchers have been collaborating on automating ship hull inspections by employing autonomous vehicles. Despite the progresses made, human intervention is still necessary at this stage. To increase the functionality of these autonomous systems, we focus on developing model-based control strategies for the survey missions around challenging regions, such as the bulbous bow region of a ship. Recent advances in differential geometry have given rise to the field of geometric control theory. This has proven to be an effective framework for control strategy design for mechanical systems, and has recently been extended to applications for underwater vehicles. Advantages of geometric control theory include the exploitation of symmetries and nonlinearities inherent to the system. Here, we examine the posed inspection problem from a path planning viewpoint, applying recently developed techniques from the field of differential geometric control theory to design the control strategies that steer the vehicle along the prescribed path. Three potential scenarios for surveying a ship?s bulbous bow region are motivated for path planning applications. For each scenario, we compute the control strategy and implement it onto a test-bed vehicle. Experimental results are analyzed and compared with theoretical predictions.

Increasing underwater vehicle autonomy by reducing energy consumption

In this paper, we concern ourselves with finding a control strategy that minimizes energy consumption along a trajectory connecting two given configurations. We develop an algorithm, based on our previous work with the time optimal problem, which provides implementable control strategies that are energy efficient. We find an interesting correlation between the duration of these trajectories and the optimal duration. We present the algorithm, control strategy and experimental results from our test-bed vehicle.

Efficient control of an autonomous underwater vehicle while accounting for thruster failure

This paper is concerned with the design and implementation of control strategies onto a test-bed vehicle with six degrees-of-freedom. We design our trajectories to be efficient in time and in power consumption. Moreover, we also consider cases when actuator failure can arise and discuss alternate control strategies in this situation. Our calculations are supplemented by experimental results.

Design and implementation of time efficient trajectories for an underwater vehicle

This paper discusses control strategies adapted for practical implementation and efficient motion of underwater vehicles. These trajectories are piecewise constant thrust arcs with few actuator switchings. We provide the numerical algorithm which computes the time efficient trajectories parameterized by the switching times. We discuss both the theoretical analysis and experimental implementation results.