220 resultados para Modified Delphi method


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Improving the performance of a incident detection system was essential to minimize the effect of incidents. A new method of incident detection was brought forward in this paper based on an in-car terminal which consisted of GPS module, GSM module and control module as well as some optional parts such as airbag sensors, mobile phone positioning system (MPPS) module, etc. When a driver or vehicle discovered the freeway incident and initiated an alarm report the incident location information located by GPS, MPPS or both would be automatically send to a transport management center (TMC), then the TMC would confirm the accident with a closed-circuit television (CCTV) or other approaches. In this method, detection rate (DR), time to detect (TTD) and false alarm rate (FAR) were more important performance targets. Finally, some feasible means such as management mode, education mode and suitable accident confirming approaches had been put forward to improve these targets.

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Differential axial shortening, distortion and deformation in high rise buildings is a serious concern. They are caused by three time dependent modes of volume change; “shrinkage”, “creep” and “elastic shortening” that takes place in every concrete element during and after construction. Vertical concrete components in a high rise building are sized and designed based on their strength demand to carry gravity and lateral loads. Therefore, columns and walls are sized, shaped and reinforced differently with varying concrete grades and volume to surface area ratios. These structural components may be subjected to the detrimental effects of differential axial shortening that escalates with increasing the height of buildings. This can have an adverse impact on other structural and non-structural elements. Limited procedures are available to quantify axial shortening, and the results obtained from them differ because each procedure is based on various assumptions and limited to few parameters. All these prompt to a need to develop an accurate numerical procedure to quantify the axial shortening of concrete buildings taking into account the important time varying functions of (i) construction sequence (ii) Young’s Modulus and (iii) creep and shrinkage models associated with reinforced concrete. General assumptions are refined to minimize variability of creep and shrinkage parameters to improve accuracy of the results. Finite element techniques are used in the procedure that employs time history analysis along with compression only elements to simulate staged construction behaviour. This paper presents such a procedure and illustrates it through an example. Keywords: Differential Axial Shortening, Concrete Buildings, Creep and Shrinkage, Construction Sequence, Finite Element Method.

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Once, we thought that comparing advertising and public relations was a bit like comparing apples and oranges. But with integration the new flavour, many academics are trying to cut and combine and create a fruit salad that will entice their customers and satisfy their stakeholders. While this has produced some culinary triumphs, it has also produced heartburn in equal quantity. This paper seeks the perfect recipe for integrated marketing communication (IMC) education by asking a Delphi panel of IMC champions questions relating to the place of IMC in the university setting; the teaching, research and curriculum development issues and the future for IMC education. The panel draws a chaotic picture of IMC education and identifies some important obstacles to curriculum development. It also predicts a number of key challenges for the future, including turf wars; the lack of faculty experience and enthusiasm to embrace IMC and the desperate need to grow the IMC brand. But perhaps the greatest challenge is how to create a generalist education in a culture of pecialisation that exists both in the university and in the workplace.

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To enhance and regulate cell affinity for poly (l-lactic acid) (PLLA) based materials, two hydrophilic ligands, poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) and poly (l-lysine) (PLL), were used to develop triblock copolymers: methoxy-terminated poly (ethylene glycol)-block-poly (l-lactide)-block-poly (l-lysine) (MPEG-b-PLLA-b-PLL) in order to regulate protein absorption and cell adhesion. Bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) were cultured on different composition of MPEG-b-PLLA-b-PLL copolymer films to determine the effect of modified polymer surfaces on BMSC attachment. To understand the molecular mechanism governing the initial cell adhesion on difference polymer surfaces, the mRNA expression of 84 human extracellular matrix (ECM) and adhesion molecules was analysed using quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). It was found that down regulation of adhesion molecules was responsible for the impaired BMSC attachment on PLLA surface. MPEG-b-PLLA-b-PLL copolymer films improved significantly the cell adhesion and cytoskeleton expression by upregulation of relevant molecule genes significantly. Six adhesion genes (CDH1, ITGL, NCAM1, SGCE, COL16A1, and LAMA3) were most significantly influenced by the modified PLLA surfaces. In summary, polymer surfaces altered adhesion molecule gene expression of BMSCs, which consequently regulated cell initial attachment on modified PLLA surfaces.

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Background: Factors associated with cannabis use among people with psychosis are not well understood. ----- Aims: To examine whether people with psychosis and age-matched controls modified cannabis use in response to recent experiences. ----- Method: This study predicted 4 weeks of cannabis use prospectively, using expectancies derived from recent occasions of use. ----- Results: People with psychosis used cannabis less frequently than controls, but had more cannabis-related problems. More negative cannabis expectancies resulted in less frequent cannabis use over Follow-up. The psychosis group was more likely to moderate cannabis use after negative effects than controls. ----- Conclusions: Results offer optimism about abilities of people with psychosis tomoderate cannabis use in the short term.

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The equations governing saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers are complex. Backward Euler time stepping approaches are often used to advance the solution to these equations in time, which typically requires that small time steps be taken in order to ensure that an accurate solution is obtained. We show that a method of lines approach incorporating variable order backward differentiation formulas can greatly improve the efficiency of the time stepping process.

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With the widespread applications of electronic learning (e-Learning) technologies to education at all levels, increasing number of online educational resources and messages are generated from the corresponding e-Learning environments. Nevertheless, it is quite difficult, if not totally impossible, for instructors to read through and analyze the online messages to predict the progress of their students on the fly. The main contribution of this paper is the illustration of a novel concept map generation mechanism which is underpinned by a fuzzy domain ontology extraction algorithm. The proposed mechanism can automatically construct concept maps based on the messages posted to online discussion forums. By browsing the concept maps, instructors can quickly identify the progress of their students and adjust the pedagogical sequence on the fly. Our initial experimental results reveal that the accuracy and the quality of the automatically generated concept maps are promising. Our research work opens the door to the development and application of intelligent software tools to enhance e-Learning.

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Recognizing the need to offer alternative methods of brief interventions, this study developed correspondence treatments for low-dependent problem drinkers and evaluated their impact. One hundred and twenty-one problem drinkers were recruited by media advertisements and were randomly allocated to a full cognitive behavioural treatment programme (CBT) or to a minimal intervention condition (MI) that gave information regarding alcohol misuse and instructions to record drinking. As predicted, CBT was more effective than MI in reducing alcohol consumption over the 4-month controlled trial period. CBT produced a 50% fall in consumption, bringing the average intake of subjects within recommended maximum levels. Treatment gains at 6 months were well maintained to 12 months. High levels of consumer satisfaction, a high representation of women and a substantial participation from isolated rural areas attested to the feasibility of the correspondence programme as an alternative treatment. However, some drinking occasions still involved high intake for a significant subgroup of subjects, and this issue will be addressed in future programmes. The results supported the use of correspondence delivery as a means of promoting early engagement and equity of access between city and country areas.

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A simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium sweeteners in foodstuff samples has been researched and developed. This analytical method relies on the different kinetic rates of the analytes in their oxidative reaction with KMnO4 to produce the green manganate product in an alkaline solution. As the kinetic rates of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium were similar and their kinetic data seriously overlapped, chemometrics methods, such as partial least squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR) and classical least squares (CLS), were applied to resolve the kinetic data. The results showed that the PLS prediction model performed somewhat better. The proposed method was then applied for the determination of the three sweeteners in foodstuff samples, and the results compared well with those obtained by the reference HPLC method.

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This study considers the solution of a class of linear systems related with the fractional Poisson equation (FPE) (−∇2)α/2φ=g(x,y) with nonhomogeneous boundary conditions on a bounded domain. A numerical approximation to FPE is derived using a matrix representation of the Laplacian to generate a linear system of equations with its matrix A raised to the fractional power α/2. The solution of the linear system then requires the action of the matrix function f(A)=A−α/2 on a vector b. For large, sparse, and symmetric positive definite matrices, the Lanczos approximation generates f(A)b≈β0Vmf(Tm)e1. This method works well when both the analytic grade of A with respect to b and the residual for the linear system are sufficiently small. Memory constraints often require restarting the Lanczos decomposition; however this is not straightforward in the context of matrix function approximation. In this paper, we use the idea of thick-restart and adaptive preconditioning for solving linear systems to improve convergence of the Lanczos approximation. We give an error bound for the new method and illustrate its role in solving FPE. Numerical results are provided to gauge the performance of the proposed method relative to exact analytic solutions.

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Anxiety disorders are the most common psychopathology experienced by young people, with up to 18% of adolescents developing an anxiety disorder. The consequences of these disorders, if left untreated, include impaired peer relationships, school absenteeism and self-concept problems. In addition, anxiety disorders may play a causal role in the development of depression in young people, precede eating disorders and predispose adolescents to substance abuse disorders. While the school is often chosen as a place to provide early intervention for this debilitating disorder, the fact that excessive anxiety is often not recognised in school and that young people are reluctant to seek help, makes identifying these adolescents difficult. Even when these young people are identified, there are problems in providing sensitive programs which are not stigmatising to them within a school setting. One method which may engage this adolescent population could be cross-age peer tutoring. This paper reports on a small pilot study using the “Worrybusters” program and a cross-age peer tutoring method to engage the anxious adolescents. These anxious secondary school students planned activities for teacher-referred anxious primary school students for a term in the high school setting and then delivered those activities to the younger students weekly in the next term in the primary school. Although the secondary school students decreased their scores on anxiety self-report measures there were no significant differences for primary school students’ self-reports. However, the primary school parent reports indicated a significant decrease in their child’s anxiety.

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In the past decade, scholars have proposed a range of terms to describe the relationship between practice and research in the creative arts, including increasingly nuanced definitions of practice-based research, practice-led research and practice-as-research. In this paper, I consider the efficacy of creative practice as method. I use the example of The Ex/Centric Fixations Project – a project in which I have embedded creative practice in a research project, rather than embedding research in a creative project. The Ex/Centric Fixations project investigates the way spectators interpret human experiences – especially human experiences of difference, marginalisation or discrimination – depicted onstage. In particular, it investigates the way postmodern performance writing strategies, and the presence of performing bodied to which the experience depicted can be attached, impacts on interpretations. It is part of a broader research project which examines the performativity of spectatorship, and intervenes in emergent debates about performance, ethics and spectatorship in the context of debate about whether live performance is a privileged site for the emergence of an ethical face-to-face encounter with the Other. Using the metaphor of the Mobius strip, I examines the way practice – as a method, rather than an output – has informed, influenced and problematised the broader research project.

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Sandy soils have low water and nutrient retention capabilities so that zeolite soil amendments are used for high value land uses including turf and horticulture to reduce leaching losses of NH4+ fertilisers. MesoLite is a zeolitic material made by caustic treatment of kaolin at 80-95oC. It has a moderately low surface area (9-12m2/g) and very high cation exchange capacity (494 cmol(+)/kg). Laboratory column experiments showed that an addition of 0.4% MesoLite to a sandy soil greatly (90%) reduced leaching of added NH4+ compared to an unamended soil and MesoLite is 11 times more efficient in retaining NH4+ than natural zeolite. Furthermore, NH4+-MesoLite slowly releases NH4+ to soil solution and is likely to be an effective slow release fertiliser.

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Ceramic membranes are of particular interest in many industrial processes due to their ability to function under extreme conditions while maintaining their chemical and thermal stability. Major structural deficiencies under conventional fabrication approach are pin-holes and cracks, and the dramatic losses of flux when pore sizes are reduced to enhance selectivity. We overcome these structural deficiencies by constructing hierarchically structured separation layer on a porous substrate using larger titanate nanofibres and smaller boehmite nanofibres. This yields a radical change in membrane texture. The differences in the porous supports have no substantial influences on the texture of resulting membranes. The membranes with top layer of nanofibres coated on different porous supports by spin-coating method have similar size of the filtration pores, which is in a range of 10–100 nm. These membranes are able to effectively filter out species larger than 60 nm at flow rates orders of magnitude greater than conventional membranes. The retention can attain more than 95%, while maintaining a high flux rate about 900 L m-2 h. The calcination after spin-coating creates solid linkages between the fibres and between fibres and substrate, in addition to convert boehmite into -alumina nanofibres. This reveals a new direction in membrane fabrication.

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In this paper, the numerical simulation of the 3D seepage flow with fractional derivatives in porous media is considered under two special cases: non-continued seepage flow in uniform media (NCSFUM) and continued seepage flow in non-uniform media (CSF-NUM). A fractional alternating direction implicit scheme (FADIS) for the NCSF-UM and a modified Douglas scheme (MDS) for the CSF-NUM are proposed. The stability, consistency and convergence of both FADIS and MDS in a bounded domain are discussed. A method for improving the speed of convergence by Richardson extrapolation for the MDS is also presented. Finally, numerical results are presented to support our theoretical analysis.