Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).

Uniform, dense arrays of vertically aligned, large-diameter single-walled carbon nanotubes

Precisely controlled reactive chemical vapor synthesis of highly uniform, dense arrays of vertically aligned single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) using tailored trilayered Fe/Al2O3/SiO2 catalyst is demonstrated. More than 90% population of thick nanotubes (>3 nm in diameter) can be produced by tailoring the thickness and microstructure of the secondary catalyst supporting SiO2 layer, which is commonly overlooked. The proposed model based on the atomic force microanalysis suggests that this tailoring leads to uniform and dense arrays of relatively large Fe catalyst nanoparticles on which the thick SWCNTs nucleate, while small nanotubes and amorphous carbon are effectively etched away. Our results resolve a persistent issue of selective (while avoiding multiwalled nanotubes and other carbon nanostructures) synthesis of thick vertically aligned SWCNTs whose easily switchable thickness-dependent electronic properties enable advanced applications in nanoelectronic, energy, drug delivery, and membrane technologies.

Perceptions of document relevance

This article presents a study of how humans perceive and judge the relevance of documents. Humans are adept at making reasonably robust and quick decisions about what information is relevant to them, despite the ever increasing complexity and volume of their surrounding information environment. The literature on document relevance has identified various dimensions of relevance (e.g., topicality, novelty, etc.), however little is understood about how these dimensions may interact. We performed a crowdsourced study of how human subjects judge two relevance dimensions in relation to document snippets retrieved from an internet search engine. The order of the judgment was controlled. For those judgments exhibiting an order effect, a q–test was performed to determine whether the order effects can be explained by a quantum decision model based on incompatible decision perspectives. Some evidence of incompatibility was found which suggests incompatible decision perspectives is appropriate for explaining interacting dimensions of relevance in such instances.

Chaperone-usher fimbriae of Escherichia coli

Chaperone-usher (CU) fimbriae are adhesive surface organelles common to many Gram-negative bacteria. Escherichia coli genomes contain a large variety of characterised and putative CU fimbrial operons, however, the classification and annotation of individual loci remains problematic. Here we describe a classification model based on usher phylogeny and genomic locus position to categorise the CU fimbrial types of E. coli. Using the BLASTp algorithm, an iterative usher protein search was performed to identify CU fimbrial operons from 35 E. coli (and one Escherichia fergusonnii) genomes representing different pathogenic and phylogenic lineages, as well as 132 Escherichia spp. plasmids. A total of 458 CU fimbrial operons were identified, which represent 38 distinct fimbrial types based on genomic locus position and usher phylogeny. The majority of fimbrial operon types occupied a specific locus position on the E. coli chromosome; exceptions were associated with mobile genetic elements. A group of core-associated E. coli CU fimbriae were defined and include the Type 1, Yad, Yeh, Yfc, Mat, F9 and Ybg fimbriae. These genes were present as intact or disrupted operons at the same genetic locus in almost all genomes examined. Evaluation of the distribution and prevalence of CU fimbrial types among different pathogenic and phylogenic groups provides an overview of group specific fimbrial profiles and insight into the ancestry and evolution of CU fimbriae in E. coli.

Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Mind the insolvency gap : lessons to be learned from audit expectations gap theory

There is a general perception that public confidence in the insolvency profession is low as the result of the recent unethical practices of a few high profile liquidators. As a result, the effectiveness of the current regulatory mechanisms has been questioned, leading to a review of the performance of insolvency practitioners and subsequent regulation proposals. The challenge for the insolvency profession is balancing the expectations of the general public whilst ensuring that the obligations and duties imposed upon them are performed to acceptable and realistic standards. It is difficult (if not impossible) for the profession to meet this challenge in the absence of a cohesive framework which identifies those issues that require further regulation as opposed to those that relate to general education on the insolvency process. This paper will examine the audit expectations gap theory in the context of insolvency practitioners and suggests that a model based on this theory provides an effective framework for evaluating the regulation of the insolvency industry.

Enhanced interfacial thermal transport across graphene–polymer interfaces by grafting polymer chains

Thermal transport in graphene-polymer nanocomposite is complicated and has not been well understood. The interfacial thermal transport between graphene nanofiller and polymer matrix is expected to play a key role in controlling the overall thermal performance of graphene-polymer nanocomposite. In this work, we investigated the thermal transport across graphene-polymer interfaces functionalized with end-grafted polymer chains using molecular dynamics simulations. The effects of grafting density, chain length and initial morphology on the interfacial thermal transport were systematically investigated. It was found that end-grafted polymer chains could significantly enhance interfacial thermal transport and the underlying mechanism was considered to be the enhanced vibration coupling between graphene and polymer. In addition, a theoretical model based on effective medium theory was established to predict the thermal conductivity in graphene-polymer nanocomposites.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

Predicting Australian builders’ intentions to use prefabrication

This study presents the results of the first large scale survey of Australian builders’ beliefs about prefabrication, drawing on 454 surveys completed by representatives of building companies in Queensland and Western Australia. Previous literature has identified a number of broad themes affecting the uptake of prefabrication. The current study builds on this work by using a structured theoretical model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), to further explore the specific factors influencing builders’ intentions to increase their use of prefabrication. Information was gathered concerning the characteristics of respondents in addition to three aims. The aims were: (1) To identify the relative importance of a number of key factors which may affect builders’ use of prefabrication, (2) To compare the characteristics of builders using various levels of prefabrication (including none), and; (3) To determine if a model based on the TPB, TAM, and other control variables can explain builders’ intentions to adopt prefabrication on their housing projects.

Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

Cost-effective suppression and eradication of invasive predators

Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget-limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator-prey model based on a Lotka-Volterra system to investigate the cost-effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed-number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed-rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper-trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower-trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed-number, and lower-trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper-trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper-trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the "best" strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

A new twist on mode indicator functions

Mode indicator functions (MIFs) are used in modal testing and analysis as a means of identifying modes of vibration, often as a precursor to modal parameter estimation. Various methods have been developed since the MIF was introduced four decades ago. These methods are quite useful in assisting the analyst to identify genuine modes and, in the case of the complex mode indicator function, have even been developed into modal parameter estimation techniques. Although the various MIFs are able to indicate the existence of a mode, they do not provide the analyst with any descriptive information about the mode. This paper uses the simple summation type of MIF to develop five averaged and normalised MIFs that will provide the analyst with enough information to identify whether a mode is longitudinal, vertical, lateral or torsional. The first three functions, termed directional MIFs, have been noted in the literature in one form or another; however, this paper introduces a new twist on the MIF by introducing two MIFs, termed torsional MIFs, that can be used by the analyst to identify torsional modes and, moreover, can assist in determining whether the mode is of a pure torsion or sway type (i.e., having a rigid cross-section) or a distorted twisting type. The directional and torsional MIFs are tested on a finite element model based simulation of an experimental modal test using an impact hammer. Results indicate that the directional and torsional MIFs are indeed useful in assisting the analyst to identify whether a mode is longitudinal, vertical, lateral, sway, or torsion.

Memory strength effects in fMRI studies: A matter of confidence

To investigate potentially dissociable recognition memory responses in the hippocampus and perirhinal cortex, fMRI studies have often used confidence ratings as an index of memory strength. Confidence ratings, although correlated with memory strength, also reflect sources of variability, including task-irrelevant item effects and differences both within and across individuals in terms of applying decision criteria to separate weak from strong memories. We presented words one, two, or four times at study in each of two different conditions, focused and divided attention, and then conducted separate fMRI analyses of correct old responses on the basis of subjective confidence ratings or estimates from single- versus dual-process recognition memory models. Overall, the effect of focussing attention on spaced repetitions at study manifested as enhanced recognition memory performance. Confidence- versus model-based analyses revealed disparate patterns of hippocampal and perirhinal cortex activity at both study and test and both within and across hemispheres. The failure to observe equivalent patterns of activity indicates that fMRI signals associated with subjective confidence ratings reflect additional sources of variability. The results are consistent with predictions of single-process models of recognition memory.

Predicting white matter integrity from multiple common genetic variants

Several common genetic variants have recently been discovered that appear to influence white matter microstructure, as measured by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Each genetic variant explains only a small proportion of the variance in brain microstructure, so we set out to explore their combined effect on the white matter integrity of the corpus callosum. We measured six common candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COMT, NTRK1, BDNF, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE genes, and investigated their individual and aggregate effects on white matter structure in 395 healthy adult twins and siblings (age: 20-30 years). All subjects were scanned with 4-tesla 94-direction high angular resolution diffusion imaging. When combined using mixed-effects linear regression, a joint model based on five of the candidate SNPs (COMT, NTRK1, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE) explained ∼ 6% of the variance in the average fractional anisotropy (FA) of the corpus callosum. This predictive model had detectable effects on FA at 82% of the corpus callosum voxels, including the genu, body, and splenium. Predicting the brain's fiber microstructure from genotypes may ultimately help in early risk assessment, and eventually, in personalized treatment for neuropsychiatric disorders in which brain integrity and connectivity are affected.

Real-time traffic state estimation in urban corridors from heterogeneous data

In recent years, rapid advances in information technology have led to various data collection systems which are enriching the sources of empirical data for use in transport systems. Currently, traffic data are collected through various sensors including loop detectors, probe vehicles, cell-phones, Bluetooth, video cameras, remote sensing and public transport smart cards. It has been argued that combining the complementary information from multiple sources will generally result in better accuracy, increased robustness and reduced ambiguity. Despite the fact that there have been substantial advances in data assimilation techniques to reconstruct and predict the traffic state from multiple data sources, such methods are generally data-driven and do not fully utilize the power of traffic models. Furthermore, the existing methods are still limited to freeway networks and are not yet applicable in the urban context due to the enhanced complexity of the flow behavior. The main traffic phenomena on urban links are generally caused by the boundary conditions at intersections, un-signalized or signalized, at which the switching of the traffic lights and the turning maneuvers of the road users lead to shock-wave phenomena that propagate upstream of the intersections. This paper develops a new model-based methodology to build up a real-time traffic prediction model for arterial corridors using data from multiple sources, particularly from loop detectors and partial observations from Bluetooth and GPS devices.