Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

The relationship between N2O, NO, and N2 fluxes from fertilized and irrigated dryland soils of the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan

Microbial respiratory reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) to dinitrogen (N2) via denitrification plays a key role within the global N-cycle since it is the most important process for converting reactive nitrogen back into inert molecular N2. However, due to methodological constraints, we still lack a comprehensive, quantitative understanding of denitrification rates and controlling factors across various ecosystems. We investigated N2, N2O and NO emissions from irrigated cotton fields within the Aral Sera Basin using the He/O2 atmosphere gas flow soil core technique and an incubation assay. NH4NO3 fertilizer, equivalent to 75 kg ha−1 and irrigation water, adjusting the water holding capacity to 70, 100 and 130% were applied to the incubation vessels to assess its influence on gaseous N emissions. Under soil conditions as they are naturally found after concomitant irrigation and fertilization, denitrification was the dominant process and N2 the main end product of denitrification. The mean ratios of N2/N2O emissions increased with increasing soil moisture content. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 5 ± 2 at 70% soil water holding capacity (WHC) and a factor of 55 ± 27 at 130% WHC. The mean ratios of N2O/NO emissions varied between 1.5 ± 0.4 (70% WHC) and 644 ± 108 (130% WHC). The magnitude of N2 emissions for irrigated cotton was estimated to be in the range of 24 ± 9 to 175 ± 65 kg-N ha−1season−1, while emissions of NO were only of minor importance (between 0.1 to 0.7 kg-N ha−1 season−1). The findings demonstrate that for irrigated dryland soils in the Aral Sera Basin, denitrification is a major pathway of N-loss and that substantial amounts of N-fertilizer are lost as N2 to the atmosphere for irrigated dryland soils.

Nitrous oxide emissions from fertilized, irrigated cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan : influence of nitrogen applications and irrigation practices

Nitrous oxide emissions were monitored at three sites over a 2-year period in irrigated cotton fields in Khorezm, Uzbekistan, a region located in the arid deserts of the Aral Sea Basin. The fields were managed using different fertilizer management strategies and irrigation water regimes. N2O emissions varied widely between years, within 1 year throughout the vegetation season, and between the sites. The amount of irrigation water applied, the amount and type of N fertilizer used, and topsoil temperature had the greatest effect on these emissions. Very high N2O emissions of up to 3000 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 were measured in periods following N-fertilizer application in combination with irrigation events. These “emission pulses” accounted for 80–95% of the total N2O emissions between April and September and varied from 0.9 to 6.5 kg N2O-N ha−1.. Emission factors (EF), uncorrected for background emission, ranged from 0.4% to 2.6% of total N applied, corresponding to an average EF of 1.48% of applied N fertilizer lost as N2O-N. This is in line with the default global average value of 1.25% of applied N used in calculations of N2O emissions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. During the emission pulses, which were triggered by high soil moisture and high availability of mineral N, a clear diurnal pattern of N2O emissions was observed, driven by daily changes in topsoil temperature. For these periods, air sampling from 8:00 to 10:00 and from 18:00 to 20:00 was found to best represent the mean daily N2O flux rates. The wet topsoil conditions caused by irrigation favored the production of N2O from NO3− fertilizers, but not from NH4+ fertilizers, thus indicating that denitrification was the main process causing N2O emissions. It is therefore argued that there is scope for reducing N2O emission from irrigated cotton production; i.e. through the exclusive use of NH4+ fertilizers. Advanced application and irrigation techniques such as subsurface fertilizer application, drip irrigation and fertigation may also minimize N2O emission from this regionally dominant agro-ecosystem.

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin

Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). However, knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006, a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan, to quantify and compare emissions of N2O and CH4 in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton, winter wheat and rice crops, a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems, average N2O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with highest N2O emissions in the cotton fields, covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission), used to determine the fertilizer-induced N2O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied, ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N2O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N2O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N2O emissions over the entire study period (30 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1), whereas only negligible fluxes of N2O (<2 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH4 fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH4 m−2 day−1 and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH4 ha−1. The global warming potential (GWP) of the N2O and CH4 fluxes was highest under rice and cotton, with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO2 eq. ha−1. The biennial cotton–wheat–rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 yr−1. The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations, especially on less profitable, marginal lands.

Optimal Irrigation and N-fertilizer Management for Sustainable Winter Wheat Production in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

The efficiency of the nitrogen (N) application rates 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha−1 in combination with low or medium water levels in the cultivation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Kupava was studied for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The results show an impact of the initial soil Nmin (NO3-N + NH4-N) levels measured at wheat seeding on the N fertilizer rates applied. When the Nmin content in the 0–50 cm soil layer was lower than 10 mg kg−1 during wheat seeding in 2005, the N rate of 180 kg ha−1 was found to be the most effective for achieving high grain yields of high quality. With a higher Nmin content of about 30 mg kg−1 as was the case in the 2006 season, 120 kg N ha−1 was determined as being the technical and economical optimum. The temporal course of N2O emissions of winter wheat cultivation for the two water-level studies shows that emissions were strongly influenced by irrigation and N-fertilization. Extremely high emissions were measured immediately after fertilizer application events that were combined with irrigation events. Given the high impact of N-fertilizer and irrigation-water management on N2O emissions, it can be concluded that present N-management practices should be modified to mitigate emissions of N2O and to achieve higher fertilizer use efficiency.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Cross cultural adaptation and validation of a Spanish version of the lower limb functional index

Background: The Lower Limb Functional Index (LLFI) is a relatively recently published regional outcome measure. The development article showed the LLFI had robust and valid clinimetric properties with sound psychometric and practical characteristics when compared to the Lower Limb Extremity Scale (LEFS) criterion standard. Objective: The purpose of this study was cross cultural adaptation and validation of the LLFI Spanish-version (LLFI-Sp) in a Spanish population. Methods: A two stage observational study was conducted. The LLFI was initially cross-culturally adapted to Spanish through double forward and single backward translation; then subsequently validated for the psychometric characteristics of validity, internal consistency, reliability, error score and factor structure. Participants (n = 136) with various lower limb conditions of >12 weeks duration completed the LLFI-Sp, Western Ontario and McMaster University Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and the Euroqol Health Questionnaire 5 Dimensions (EQ-5D-3 L). The full sample was employed to determine internal consistency, concurrent criterion validity, construct validity and factor structure; a subgroup (n = 45) determined reliability at seven days concurrently completing a global rating of change scale. Results: The LLFI-Sp demonstrated high but not excessive internal consistency (α = 0.91) and high reliability (ICC = 0.96). The factor structure was one-dimensional which supported the construct validity. Criterion validity with the WOMAC was strong (r = 0.77) and with the EQ-5D-3 L fair and inversely correlated (r = -0.62). The study limitations included the lack of longitudinal data and the determination of responsiveness. Conclusions: The LLFI-Sp supports the findings of the original English version as being a valid lower limb regional outcome measure. It demonstrated similar psychometric properties for internal consistency, validity, reliability, error score and factor structure.

Urban growth in the Kathmandu Valley: The transformation of public space

Traditional towns of the Kathmandu Valley boast a fine provision of public spaces in their neighbourhoods. Historically, a hierarchy of public space has been distributed over the entire town with each neighbourhood centered around more or less spacious public squares. However, rapid growth of these towns over the past decades has resulted in haphazard development of new urban areas with little provision of public space. Recent studies indicate that the loss of public space is a major consequence of the uncontrolled urban growth of the Kathmandu Valley and its new neighbourhoods. This paper reviews the current urban growth of the Kathmandu Valley and its impact on the development of public space in new neighbourhoods. The preliminary analysis of the case study of three new neighbourhoods shows that the formation and utilization of neighbourhood public space exhibit fundamental differences from those found in the traditional city cores. The following key issues are identified in this paper: a) Governance and regulations have been a challenge to regulate rapid urban growth; b) The current pattern of neighbourhood formation is found to be different from that of traditional neighbourhoods due to the changes with rapid urban development; c) Public spaces have been compromised in both planned and unplanned new neighbourhoods in terms of their quantity and quality; d) The changing provision of public space has contributed to its changing use and meaning; and e) The changing demographic composition, changing society and life style have had direct impact on the declining use of public space. Moreover, the management of public spaces remains a big challenge due to their changing nature and the changing governance. The current transformation public space does not appear to be conducive, and has led to adversely changing social environment of the new neighbourhoods.

The times, wines and tides of Tasmania’s Tamar Valley

A travel article about the Tamar Valley, Tasmania. FROM Launceston to Low Head and the Tamar River’s entry into Bass Strait, big tides bring with them an atmosphere of a beach community, but also of a community a little stranded in time. Half the day the locals live by the sea, and for the other half along wide flats. It’s an old rhythm in a place where much has gone unchanged...

Explaining lower rates of sexual abuse in China

Accumulating research suggests that rates of child sexual abuse are comparatively low in China. This commentary is an effort to evaluate whether it reflects a true lower prevalence or alternatively the effect of inhibited disclosure by victims. We conclude that while some estimates have almost certainly been affected by inhibited disclosure, the overall magnitude of the contrast between Chinese and international rates, particularly for girls, and its consistency with other indicators do suggest a true lower prevalence, although the evidence is equivocal. We discuss some factors that could account for such lower rates including Confucian family values, definitions of masculinity and a collectivist culture that may be protective.

Child's body in tree adds to Lockyer Valley death toll

"Two more bodies, including a that of child discovered in a tree, were retrieved in the Lockyer Valley at the weekend, reinforcing the grisly complexity of the search for the missing."

Incidence, risk factors and estimates of a woman's risk of developing secondary lower limb lymphedema and lymphedema-specific supportive care needs in women treated for endometrial cancer

Objectives: Few studies have assessed the risk and impact of lymphedema among women treated for endometrial cancer. We aimed to quantify cumulative incidence of, and risk factors for developing lymphedema following treatment for endometrial cancer and estimate absolute risk for individuals. Further, we report unmet needs for help with lymphedema-specific issues. Methods: Women treated for endometrial cancer (n = 1243) were followed-up 3–5 years after diagnosis; a subset of 643 completed a follow-up survey that asked about lymphedema and lymphedema-related support needs. We identified a diagnosis of secondary lymphedema from medical records or self-report. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate risk factors and estimates. Results: Overall, 13% of women developed lymphedema. Risk varied markedly with the number of lymph nodes removed and, to a lesser extent, receipt of adjuvant radiation or chemotherapy treatment, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (pre-diagnosis). The absolute risk of developing lymphedema was > 50% for women with 15 + nodes removed and 2–3 additional risk factors, 30–41% for those with 15 + nodes removed plus 0–1 risk factors or 6–14 nodes removed plus 3 risk factors, but ≤ 8% for women with no nodes removed or 1–5 nodes but no additional risk factors. Over half (55%) of those who developed lymphedema reported unmet need(s), particularly with lymphedema-related costs and pain. Conclusion: Lymphedema is common; experienced by one in eight women following endometrial cancer. Women who have undergone lymphadenectomy have very high risks of lymphedema and should be informed how to self-monitor for symptoms. Affected women need greater levels of support.

Higher fuel prices are associated with lower air pollution levels

Air pollution is a persistent problem in urban areas, and traffic emissions are a major cause of poor air quality. Policies to curb pollution levels often involve raising the price of using private vehicles, for example, congestion charges. We were interested in whether higher fuel prices were associated with decreased air pollution levels. We examined an association between diesel and petrol prices and four traffic-related pollutants in Brisbane from 2010 to 2013. We used a regression model and examined pollution levels up to 16 days after the price change. Higher diesel prices were associated with statistically significant short-term reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. Changes in petrol prices had no impact on air pollution. Raising diesel taxes in Australia could be justified as a public health measure. As raising taxes is politically unpopular, an alternative political approach would be to remove schemes that put a downward pressure on fuel prices, such as industry subsidies and shopping vouchers that give fuel discounts.