Controlling chaos? The value and the challenges of applying complexity theory to project management

The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

A qualitative study of older adults’ responses to sitting-time questions : do we get the information we want?

Background: In the last decade, there has been increasing interest in the health effects of sedentary behavior, which is often assessed using self-report sitting-time questions. The aim of this qualitative study was to document older adults’ understanding of sitting-time questions from the International Physical Activity (PA) Questionnaire (IPAQ) and the PA Scale for the Elderly (PASE). Methods: Australian community-dwelling adults aged 65+ years answered the IPAQ and PASE sitting questions in face-to-face semi-structured interviews. IPAQ uses one open-ended question to assess sitting on a weekday in the last 7 days 'at work, at home, while doing coursework and during leisure time'; PASE uses a three-part closed question about daily leisure-time sitting in the last 7 days. Participants expressed their thoughts out loud while answering each question. They were then probed about their responses. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and coded into themes. Results: Mean age of the 28 male and 27 female participants was 73 years (range 65-89). The most frequently reported activity was watching TV. For both questionnaires, many participants had difficulties understanding what activities to report. Some had difficulty understanding what activities should be classified as ‘leisure-time sitting’. Some assumed they were being asked to only report activities provided as examples. Most reported activities they normally do, rather than those performed on a day in the previous week. Participants used a variety of strategies to select ‘a day’ for which they reported their sitting activities and to calculate sitting time on that day. Therefore, many different ways of estimating sitting time were used. Participants had particular difficulty reporting their daily sitting-time when their schedules were not consistent across days. Some participants declared the IPAQ sitting question too difficult to answer. Conclusion: The accuracy of older adults’ self-reported sitting time is questionable given the challenges they have in answering sitting-time questions. Their responses to sitting-time questions may be more accurate if our recommendations for clarifying the sitting domains, providing examples relevant to older adults and suggesting strategies for formulating responses are incorporated. Future quantitative studies should include objective criterion measures to assess validity and reliability of these questions.

The application of the statutory derivative action in Pt 2F.1A of the Corporations Act to companies in liquidation under Ch 5 : Well oiled machine or is Pt 2F.1A in need of a tune up?

The statutory derivative action was introduced in Australia in 2000. This right of action has been debated in the literature and introduced in a number of other jurisdictions as well. However, it is by no means clear that all issues have been resolved despite its operation in Australia for over 10 years. This article considers the application of Pt 2F.1A of the Corporations Act to companies in liquidation under Ch 5. It demonstrates that the application involves consideration of not only proper statutory interpretation but also policy matters around the role and the supervision by the court of a liquidator once a company has entered liquidation.

Overcoming the complexity of diagnostic problems due to sensor network architecture

In fault detection and diagnostics, limitations coming from the sensor network architecture are one of the main challenges in evaluating a system’s health status. Usually the design of the sensor network architecture is not solely based on diagnostic purposes, other factors like controls, financial constraints, and practical limitations are also involved. As a result, it quite common to have one sensor (or one set of sensors) monitoring the behaviour of two or more components. This can significantly extend the complexity of diagnostic problems. In this paper a systematic approach is presented to deal with such complexities. It is shown how the problem can be formulated as a Bayesian network based diagnostic mechanism with latent variables. The developed approach is also applied to the problem of fault diagnosis in HVAC systems, an application area with considerable modeling and measurement constraints.

Scaling analysis of the thermal boundary layer adjacent to an abruptly heated inclined flat plate

The natural convection thermal boundary layer adjacent to an abruptly heated inclined flat plate is investigated through a scaling analysis and verified by numerical simulations. In general, the development of the thermal flow can be characterized by three distinct stages, i.e. a start-up stage, a transitional stage and a steady state stage. Major scales including the flow velocity, flow development time, and the thermal and viscous boundary layer thicknesses are established to quantify the flow development at different stages and over a wide range of flow parameters. Details of the scaling analysis and the numerical procedures are described in this paper.

Unbiased estimation of the half-life to price index convergence among U.S. cities

Estimates of the half-life to convergence of prices across a panel of cities are subject to bias from three potential sources: inappropriate cross-sectional aggregation of heterogeneous coefficients, presence of lagged dependent variables in a model with individual fixed effects, and time aggregation of commodity prices. This paper finds no evidence of heterogeneity bias in annual CPI data for 17 U.S. cities from 1918 to 2006, but correcting for the “Nickell bias” and time aggregation bias produces a half-life of 7.5 years, shorter than estimates from previous studies.

Broadening of transgenic adenocarcinoma of the mouse prostate (TRAMP) model to represent late stage androgen depletion independent cancer

BACKGROUND The transgenic adenocarcinoma of the mouse prostate (TRAMP) model closely mimics PC-progression as it occurs in humans. However, the timing of disease incidence and progression (especially late stage) makes it logistically difficult to conduct experiments synchronously and economically. The development and characterization of androgen depletion independent (ADI) TRAMP sublines are reported. METHODS Sublines were derived from androgen-sensitive TRAMP-C1 and TRAMP-C2 cell lines by androgen deprivation in vitro and in vivo. Epithelial origin (cytokeratin) and expression of late stage biomarkers (E-cadherin and KAI-1) were evaluated using immunohistochemistry. Androgen receptor (AR) status was assessed through quantitative real time PCR, Western blotting, and immunohistochemistry. Coexpression of AR and E-cadherin was also evaluated. Clonogenicity and invasive potential were measured by soft agar and matrigel invasion assays. Proliferation/survival of sublines in response to androgen was assessed by WST-1 assay. In vivo growth of subcutaneous tumors was assessed in castrated and sham-castrated C57BL/6 mice. RESULTS The sublines were epithelial and displayed ADI in vitro and in vivo. Compared to the parental lines, these showed (1) significantly faster growth rates in vitro and in vivo independent of androgen depletion, (2) greater tumorigenic, and invasive potential in vitro. All showed substantial downregulation in expression levels of tumor suppressor, E-cadherin, and metastatis suppressor, KAI-1. Interestingly, the percentage of cells expressing AR with downregulated E-cadherin was higher in ADI cells, suggesting a possible interaction between the two pathways. CONCLUSIONS The TRAMP model now encompasses ADI sublines potentially representing different phenotypes with increased tumorigenicity and invasiveness.

Lessons learned from implementation of a demonstration program to reduce the burden of anemia and hookworm in women in Yen Bai Province, Viet Nam

Background Iron deficiency, anemia and hookworm disease are important public health problems for women of reproductive age living in developing countries and affect the health of newborns and infants. Iron supplementation and deworming treatment are effective in addressing these problems in both pregnant and non-pregnant women. Daily iron supplementation and deworming after the first trimester is recommended for pregnant women although these programs usually do not operate efficiently or effectively. Weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and regular deworming for non-pregnant women may be a viable approach for improving iron status and preventing anemia during the reproductive years. Addressing these diseases at a population level before women become pregnant could significantly improve women's health before and during pregnancy, as well as their infants' growth and development. Methods and Results This paper describes the major processes undertaken in a demonstration intervention of preventive weekly iron-folic acid supplementation with regular deworming for all 52,000 women aged 15–45 years in two districts of Yen Bai province, in northern Viet Nam. The intervention strategy included extensive consultation with community leaders and village, commune, district and provincial health staff, and training for village health workers. Distribution of the drugs was integrated with the existing health service infrastructure and the village health workers were the direct point of contact with women. Iron-folic acid tablets and deworming treatment were provided free of charge from May 2006. An independent Vietnamese NGO was commissioned to evaluate compliance and identify potential problems. The program resulted in effective distribution of iron-folic acid tablets and deworming treatment to all villages in the target districts, with full or partial compliance of 85%. Conclusion Training for health staff, the strong commitment of all partners and the use of appropriate educational materials led to broad support for weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and high participation in the regular deworming days. In March 2008 the program was expanded to all districts in the province, a target population of approximately 250,000 WRA, and management was handed over to provincial authorities.