Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data

In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios

The identification and quantification of temperature-related mortality

The relationship between weather and mortality has been observed for centuries. Recently, studies on temperature-related mortality have become a popular topic as climate change continues. Most of the previous studies found that exposure to hot or cold temperature affects mortality. This study aims to address three research questions: 1. What is the overall effect of daily mean temperature variation on the elderly mortality in the published literature using a meta-analysis approach? 2. Does the association between temperature and mortality differ with age, sex, or socio-economic status in Brisbane? 3. How is the magnitude of the lag effects of the daily mean temperature on mortality varied by age and cause-of-death groups in Brisbane? In the meta-analysis, there was a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1ºC decrease during cold temperature intervals and a 2-5% increase for a 1ºC increment during hot temperature intervals among the elderly. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality, but no significant lag effects were observed for hot temperature intervals. In Brisbane, the harmful effect of high temperature (over 24ºC) on mortality appeared to be greater among the elderly than other age groups. The effect estimate among women was greater than among men. However, No evidence was found that socio-economic status modified the temperature-mortality relationship. The results of this research also show longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. For 3-day hot effects associated with 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increases in mortality occurred among people aged 85 years or over (5.4% (95% CI: 1.4%, 9.5%)) compared with all age group (3.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.6%)). The effect estimate among cardiovascular deaths was slightly higher than those among all-cause mortality. For overall 21-day cold effects associated with a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent estimates in mortality for people aged 85 years or over, and from cardiovascular diseases were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%), respectively compared with all age group (2.0% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%)). Little research of this kind has been conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. This PhD research may contribute to the quantitative assessment of the overall impact, effect modification and lag effects of temperature variation on mortality in Australia and The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent temperature-related health problems.

Risk, trust, and consumer online purchasing behaviour : a Chilean perspective

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate Latin American online purchase behaviour with a specific focus on the influence of perceived risk and trust. While studies of this nature have been conducted quite extensively in developed countries, their application in developing countries, such as Latin America is limited. Our study addresses this gap in the literature with an empirical study conducted in Chile. Design/methodology/approach: The authors develop and test a proposed model of the influence of consumer’s perceptions of risk and trust on their attitudes and intentions to purchase on the Internet. An online survey method is used. The sample consists of 176 Chilean consumers who have made at least one purchase online. The data is analysed using structural equation modelling technique (SEM). Findings: The analysis revealed that of the perceived risk and trust factors examined, trust in third party assurances and a cultural environment of trust had the strongest positive influence on intentions to continuing purchasing online. Perceived risk had an inverse relationship with attitude and consumers’ attitude has a positive influence on intentions to purchase online. Trust in online vendors and a propensity to trust were both insignificant. Practical implications: Practically, these results identity which risk and trust beliefs towards purchasing online have the most effect thereby providing insights into how companies should seek to mitigate perceptions of risk to encourage new and return purchasers. Additionally, this research shows that consumers in a Latin American country, recognised as a collectivist, high risk avoidance culture, are willing to make purchases online despite the risks involved. Originality/value: The study and its results is one of few available that consider a Latin American context. The value of the findings provides insights into the specific risk and trust factors that influence Chilean consumers when considering purchasing online. The tested model adds value not only to the literature on Latin American consumer behaviour but also provides guidance for companies offering online retailing facilities in these less developed countries.

Combined time- and space-resolved Raman spectrometer for the non-invasive depth profiling of chemical hazards

A time-resolved inverse spatially offset Raman spectrometer was constructed for depth profiling of Raman-active substances under both the lab and the field environments. The system operating principles and performance are discussed along with its advantages relative to traditional continuous wave spatially offset Raman spectrometer. The developed spectrometer uses a combination of space- and time-resolved detection in order to obtain high-quality Raman spectra from substances hidden behind coloured opaque surface layers, such as plastic and garments, with a single measurement. The time-gated spatially offset Raman spectrometer was successfully used to detect concealed explosives and drug precursors under incandescent and fluorescent background light as well as under daylight. The average screening time was 50 s per measurement. The excitation energy requirements were relatively low (20 mW) which makes the probe safe for screening hazardous substances. The unit has been designed with nanosecond laser excitation and gated detection, making it of lower cost and complexity than previous picosecond-based systems, to provide a functional platform for in-line or in-field sensing of chemical substances.

A fragment of the LG3 peptide of endorepellin is present in the urine of physically active mining workers : a potential marker of physical activity

Biomarker analysis has been implemented in sports research in an attempt to monitor the effects of exertion and fatigue in athletes. This study proposed that while such biomarkers may be useful for monitoring injury risk in workers, proteomic approaches might also be utilised to identify novel exertion or injury markers. We found that urinary urea and cortisol levels were significantly elevated in mining workers following a 12 hour overnight shift. These levels failed to return to baseline over 24h in the more active maintenance crew compared to truck drivers (operators) suggesting a lack of recovery between shifts. Use of a SELDI-TOF MS approach to detect novel exertion or injury markers revealed a spectral feature which was associated with workers in both work categories who were engaged in higher levels of physical activity. This feature was identified as the LG3 peptide, a C-terminal fragment of the anti-angiogenic / anti-tumourigenic protein endorepellin. This finding suggests that urinary LG3 peptide may be a biomarker of physical activity. It is also possible that the activity mediated release of LG3 / endorepellin into the circulation may represent a biological mechanism for the known inverse association between physical activity and cancer risk / survival.

Outdoor experiential training as a medium for the development of today’s leaders

Outdoor experiential training is often used for the enhancement of generalised workplace skills including those considered relevant for effective leadership. Traditionally, facilitation processes and strategies employed in outdoor experiential training have often relied on theories delivered as part of an outdoor leadership training program. This was premised on the assumption that skills and capabilities developed in such programs transfer to the mainstream business market. In this paper we present data from an International study on the characteristics of outdoor education professionals that adds further insights into the role that outdoor experiential training plays in the development of generic leadership characteristics. Outdoor leaders were found to characterise transformational leadership qualities and considered that the development of these qualities were directly linked to their outdoor experiential training.

Solder joint defects classification using the Log-Gabor Filter, the Discrete Wavelet Transform and the Discrete Cosine Transform

Inspection of solder joints has been a critical process in the electronic manufacturing industry to reduce manufacturing cost, improve yield, and ensure project quality and reliability. This paper proposes the use of the Log-Gabor filter bank, Discrete Wavelet Transform and Discrete Cosine Transform for feature extraction of solder joint images on Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs). A distance based on the Mahalanobis Cosine metric is also presented for classification of five different types of solder joints. From the experimental results, this methodology achieved high accuracy and a well generalised performance. This can be an effective method to reduce cost and improve quality in the production of PCBs in the manufacturing industry.

Taking a leap of faith : are investors left short changed?

This dissertation examines the compliance and performance of a large sample of faith based (religious) ethical funds - the Shari'ah-compliant equity funds (SEFs), which may be viewed as a form of ethical investing. SEFs screen their investment for compliance with Islamic law, where riba (conventional interest expense), maysir (gambling), gharar (excessive uncertainty), and non-halal (non-ethical) products are prohibited. Using a set of stringent Shari'ah screens similar to those of MSCI Islamic, we first examine the extent to which SEFs comply with the Shari'ah law. Results show that only about 27% of the equities held by SEFs are Shari'ah-compliant. While most of the fund holdings pass the business screens, only about 42% pass the total debt to total assets ratio screen. This finding suggests that, in order to overcome a significant reduction in the investment opportunity, Shari'ah principles are compromised, with SEFs adopting lax screening rules so as to achieve a financial performance. While younger funds and funds that charge higher fees and are domiciled in more Muslim countries are more Shari'ah-compliant, we find little evidence of a positive relationship between fund disclosure of the Shari'ah compliance framework and Shari'ah-compliance. Clearly, Shari'ah compliance remains a major challenge for fund managers and SEF investors should be aware of Shari'ah-compliance risk since the fund managers do not always fulfill their fiduciary obligation, as promised in their prospectus. Employing a matched firm approach for a survivorship free sample of 387 SEFs, we then examine an issue that has been heavily debated in the literature: Does ethical screening reduce investment performance? Results show that it does but only by an average of 0.04% per month if benchmarked against matched conventional funds - this is a relatively small price to pay for religious faith. Cross-sectional regressions show an inverse relationship between Shari'ah compliance and fund performance: every one percentage increase in total compliance decreases fund performance by 0.01% per month. However, compliance fails to explain differences in the performance between SEFs and matched funds. Although SEFs do not generally perform better during crisis periods, further analysis shows evidence of better performance relative to conventional funds only during the recent Global Financial Crisis; the latter is consistent with popular media claims.

Toward non-invasive detection of concealed energetic materials in-field under ambient-light conditions

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) is demonstrated for the non-contact detection of energetic materials concealed within non-transparent, diffusely scattering containers. A modified design of an inverse SORS probe has been developed and tested. The SORS probe has been successfully used for the detection of various energetic substances inside different types of plastic containers. The tests have been successfully conducted under incandescent and fluorescent background lights as well as under daylight conditions, using a non-contact working distance of 6 cm. The interrogation times for the detection of the substances were less than 1 minute in each case, highlighting the suitability of the device for near real-time detection of concealed hazards in the field. The device has potential applications in forensic analysis and homeland security investigations.

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

Exposure to hot and cold temperatures and ambulance attendances in Brisbane, Australia: A time series study

ABSTRACT Objectives: To investigate the effect of hot and cold temperatures on ambulance attendances. Design: An ecological time series study. Setting and participants: The study was conducted in Brisbane, Australia. We collected information on 783 935 daily ambulance attendances, along with data of associated meteorological variables and air pollutants, for the period of 2000–2007. Outcome measures: The total number of ambulance attendances was examined, along with those related to cardiovascular, respiratory and other non-traumatic conditions. Generalised additive models were used to assess the relationship between daily mean temperature and the number of ambulance attendances. Results: There were statistically significant relationships between mean temperature and ambulance attendances for all categories. Acute heat effects were found with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.86%, 1.48%) increase in total attendances for 1 °C increase above threshold (0–1 days lag). Cold effects were delayed and longer lasting with a 1.30% (0.87%, 1.73%) increase in total attendances for a 1 °C decrease below the threshold (2–15 days lag). Harvesting was observed following initial acute periods of heat effects, but not for cold effects. Conclusions: This study shows that both hot and cold temperatures led to increases in ambulance attendances for different medical conditions. Our findings support the notion that ambulance attendance records are a valid and timely source of data for use in the development of local weather/health early warning systems.

Exposure to hot and cold temperatures and ambulance attendances in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives: To investigate the effect of hot and cold temperatures on ambulance attendances. Design: An ecological time series study. Setting and participants: The study was conducted in Brisbane, Australia. We collected information on 783 935 daily ambulance attendances, along with data of associated meteorological variables and air pollutants, for the period of 2000–2007. Outcome measures: The total number of ambulance attendances was examined, along with those related to cardiovascular, respiratory and other non-traumatic conditions. Generalised additive models were used to assess the relationship between daily mean temperature and the number of ambulance attendances. Results: There were statistically significant relationships between mean temperature and ambulance attendances for all categories. Acute heat effects were found with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.86%, 1.48%) increase in total attendances for 1 °C increase above threshold (0–1 days lag). Cold effects were delayed and longer lasting with a 1.30% (0.87%, 1.73%) increase in total attendances for a 1 °C decrease below the threshold (2–15 days lag). Harvesting was observed following initial acute periods of heat effects, but not for cold effects. Conclusions: This study shows that both hot and cold temperatures led to increases in ambulance attendances for different medical conditions. Our findings support the notion that ambulance attendance records are a valid and timely source of data for use in the development of local weather/health early warning systems.

Wing shape as a potential discriminator of morphologically similar pest taxa within the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Four morphologically cryptic species of the Bactrocera dorsalis fruit fly complex (B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae, B. carambolae and B. philippinensis) are serious agricultural pests. As they are difficult to diagnose using traditional taxonomic techniques, we examined the potential for geometric morphometric analysis of wing size and shape to discriminate between them. Fifteen wing landmarks generated size and shape data for 245 specimens for subsequent comparisons among three geographically distinct samples of each species. Intraspecific wing size was significantly different within samples of B. carambolae and B. dorsalis s.s. but not within samples of B. papayae or B. philippinensis. Although B. papayae had the smallest wings (average centroid size=6.002 mm±0.061 SE) and B. dorsalis s.s. the largest (6.349 mm±0.066 SE), interspecific wing size comparisons were generally non-informative and incapable of discriminating species. Contrary to the wing size data, canonical variate analysis based on wing shape data discriminated all species with a relatively high degree of accuracy; individuals were correctly reassigned to their respective species on average 93.27% of the time. A single sample group of B. carambolae from locality 'TN Malaysia' was the only sample to be considerably different from its conspecific groups with regards to both wing size and wing shape. This sample was subsequently deemed to have been originally misidentified and likely represents an undescribed species. We demonstrate that geometric morphometric techniques analysing wing shape represent a promising approach for discriminating between morphologically cryptic taxa of the B. dorsalis species complex.

Multiple distribution static synchronous compensators for distribution feeder voltage support

The potential of multiple distribution static synchronous compensators (DSTATCOMs) to improve the voltage profile of radial distribution networks has been reported in the literature by few authors. However, the operation of multiple DSTATCOMs across a distribution feeder may introduce control interactions and/or voltage instability. This study proposes a control scheme that alleviates interactions among controllers and enhances proper reactive power sharing among DSTATCOMs. A generalised mathematical model is presented to analyse the interactions among any number of DSTATCOMs in the network. The criterion for controller design is developed by conducting eigenvalue analysis on this mathematical model. The proposed control scheme is tested in time domain on a sample radial distribution feeder installed with multiple DSTATCOMs and test results are presented.

Assessing of circuit breaker restrike risks using computer simulation and wavelet analysis

A breaker restrike is an abnormal arcing phenomenon, leading to a possible breaker failure. Eventually, this failure leads to interruption of the transmission and distribution of the electricity supply system until the breaker is replaced. Before 2008, there was little evidence in the literature of monitoring techniques based on restrike measurement and interpretation produced during switching of capacitor banks and shunt reactor banks in power systems. In 2008 a non-intrusive radiometric restrike measurement method and a restrike hardware detection algorithm were developed by M.S. Ramli and B. Kasztenny. However, the limitations of the radiometric measurement method are a band limited frequency response as well as limitations in amplitude determination. Current restrike detection methods and algorithms require the use of wide bandwidth current transformers and high voltage dividers. A restrike switch model using Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Wavelet Transforms which support diagnostics are proposed. Restrike phenomena become a new diagnostic process using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms for online interrupter monitoring. This research project investigates the restrike switch model Parameter „A. dielectric voltage gradient related to a normal and slowed case of the contact opening velocity and the escalation voltages, which can be used as a diagnostic tool for a vacuum circuit-breaker (CB) at service voltages between 11 kV and 63 kV. During current interruption of an inductive load at current quenching or chopping, a transient voltage is developed across the contact gap. The dielectric strength of the gap should rise to a point to withstand this transient voltage. If it does not, the gap will flash over, resulting in a restrike. A straight line is fitted through the voltage points at flashover of the contact gap. This is the point at which the gap voltage has reached a value that exceeds the dielectric strength of the gap. This research shows that a change in opening contact velocity of the vacuum CB produces a corresponding change in the slope of the gap escalation voltage envelope. To investigate the diagnostic process, an ATP restrike switch model was modified with contact opening velocity computation for restrike waveform signature analyses along with experimental investigations. This also enhanced a mathematical CB model with the empirical dielectric model for SF6 (sulphur hexa-fluoride) CBs at service voltages above 63 kV and a generalised dielectric curve model for 12 kV CBs. A CB restrike can be predicted if there is a similar type of restrike waveform signatures for measured and simulated waveforms. The restrike switch model applications are used for: computer simulations as virtual experiments, including predicting breaker restrikes; estimating the interrupter remaining life of SF6 puffer CBs; checking system stresses; assessing point-on-wave (POW) operations; and for a restrike detection algorithm development using Wavelet Transforms. A simulated high frequency nozzle current magnitude was applied to an Equation (derived from the literature) which can calculate the life extension of the interrupter of a SF6 high voltage CB. The restrike waveform signatures for a medium and high voltage CB identify its possible failure mechanism such as delayed opening, degraded dielectric strength and improper contact travel. The simulated and measured restrike waveform signatures are analysed using Matlab software for automatic detection. Experimental investigation of a 12 kV vacuum CB diagnostic was carried out for the parameter determination and a passive antenna calibration was also successfully developed with applications for field implementation. The degradation features were also evaluated with a predictive interpretation technique from the experiments, and the subsequent simulation indicates that the drop in voltage related to the slow opening velocity mechanism measurement to give a degree of contact degradation. A predictive interpretation technique is a computer modeling for assessing switching device performance, which allows one to vary a single parameter at a time; this is often difficult to do experimentally because of the variable contact opening velocity. The significance of this thesis outcome is that it is a non-intrusive method developed using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms to predict and interpret a breaker restrike risk. The measurements on high voltage circuit-breakers can identify degradation that can interrupt the distribution and transmission of an electricity supply system. It is hoped that the techniques for the monitoring of restrike phenomena developed by this research will form part of a diagnostic process that will be valuable for detecting breaker stresses relating to the interrupter lifetime. Suggestions for future research, including a field implementation proposal to validate the restrike switch model for ATP system studies and the hot dielectric strength curve model for SF6 CBs, are given in Appendix A.