The performance of diversified emerging market equity funds

We investigate the performance of globally diversified emerging market equity funds during the first decade of the twenty-first century. A vast majority of these funds do not outperform the market benchmark even before transaction costs. The systematic risk of most of the funds is similar to that of the market benchmark portfolio, which may suggest that they aim to offer diversification benefits rather than seeking superior risk-adjusted returns through active management. We do not find any evidence of market timing ability amongst these funds. Finally, whilst we detect persistence in performance, this result is driven mainly by the poorly performing funds.

Learning the learning rate for prediction with expert advice

Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.

Methods for the illumination of multilevel buildings with vertical light pipes

This paper examines the feasibility of using vertical light pipes to naturally illuminate the central core of a multilevel building not reached by window light. The challenges addressed were finding a method to extract and distribute equal amounts of light at each level and designing collectors to improve the effectiveness of vertical light pipes in delivering low elevation sunlight to the interior. Extraction was achieved by inserting partially reflecting cones within transparent sections of the pipes at each floor level. Theory was formulated to estimate the partial reflectance necessary to provide equal light extraction at each level. Designs for daylight collectors formed from laser cut panels tilted above the light pipe were developed and the benefits and limitations of static collectors as opposed to collectors that follow the sun azimuth investigated. Performance was assessed with both basic and detailed mathematical simulation and by observations made with a five level model building under clear sky conditions.

Is Merit on the Agenda? Approaches to Recruitment and Promotion in Australian Organisations

Employment on the basis of merit is the foundation of Australia’s equal opportunity legislation, beginning with the Affirmative Action (Equal Opportunity for Women) Act 1986, and continuing through the Equal Opportunity for Women in the Workplace Act 1999 to the Workplace Gender Equality Act 2012, all of which require organisations with more than 100 employees to produce an organisational program promoting employment equity for women (WGEA 2014a; Strachan, Burgess & Henderson 2007). The issue of merit was seen as critically important to the objectives of the original 1986 Act and the Affirmative Action Agency produced two monographs in 1988 written by Clare Burton: Redefining Merit (Burton 1988a) and Gender Bias in Job Evaluation (Burton 1988b) which provided practical advice. Added to this, in 1987 the Australian Government Publishing Service published Women’s Worth: Pay Equity and Job Evaluation in Australia (Burton, Hag & Thompson 1987). The equity programs set up under the 1986 legislation aimed to ‘eliminate discriminatory employment practices and to promote equal employment opportunities for women’ and this was ‘usually understood to mean that the merit principle forms the basis of appointment to positions and for promotion’ (Burton 1988a, p. 1).

On the benefits of equicorrelation for portfolio allocation

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management, with largedimensional multivariate problems increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of models used to generate forecasts of the correlation matrix for large-dimensional problems.We find evidence in favour of assuming equicorrelation across various portfolio sizes, particularly during times of crisis. During periods of market calm, however, the suitability of the constant conditional correlation model cannot be discounted, especially for large portfolios. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set are used to compare methods, while portfolio weight stability and relative economic value are also considered.

Trainee-therapists are not all equal: Examination of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early client dropout after 12 months of clinical training

Objective Contemporary research demonstrates the feasibility of assessing therapeutic performance of trainee-therapists through the use of objective measures of client treatment outcome. Further, significant variation between individual therapists based on their client treatment outcomes has been demonstrated. This study sets out to determine whether a reliable composite measure of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early dropout can be developed and used to objectively compare trainee-therapists against each other. Design and methods Treatment outcomes of 611 clients receiving treatment from 58 trainee-therapists enrolled in a professional training programme were tracked with the OQ-45.2 over a 6-year period to assess therapeutic efficiency, therapeutic effectiveness and early client dropout. Results Significant variation between trainee-therapists was observed for each index. Findings of a moderately strong correlation between therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness enabled the ranking of trainee-therapists based upon a composite measure of these indexes. A non-significant correlation was found between early client dropout and measures of therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency. Conclusions The findings stress the importance of utilizing objective measures to track the treatment outcomes. Despite all trainee-therapists being enrolled in the same training programme, significant variation between trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness was found to exist. Practitioner points Developing of potential benchmarking tools that enable trainee-therapists, supervisors and educational institutions to quickly assess therapeutic performance can become part of a holistic assessment of a trainee-therapist's clinical development. Despite an inherent optimistic belief that therapists do not cause harm, there appears to be a small and significant proportion of trainee-therapists who consistently evidence little therapeutic change. Considerable variability in trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness can exist in the one training programme. Early client dropout may not be associated with therapists' therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency.

Islamic fund and asset management: The opportunities and challenges of Islamic REITs

Purpose This paper aims to present a review on the issues and challenges for Islamic Funds and Asset Management, particularly the Islamic Real Estate Trusts (I-REITs) available in Malaysia. The key difference between the Islamic and the conventional investment vehicle is mainly the fund needs to adhere to the Shariah framework. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews and synthesises the relevant literature on the framework of Islamic Asset and Fund Management, particularly the Islamic Real Estate Investment Trusts. The paper then provides insights for further research to address the issues and consider the Shariah framework applicable to other further research works. Findings The paper highlights the opportunities and challenges of Islamic REITs globally. There is a lack of the standardisation in the screening methodology used by the Malaysian I- REITs and Singapore I-REITs as the latter follows the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) guideline to capture the investors mainly from the Gulf countries. In term of tenants’ selection, there is similarity between I-REITs and the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) or ethical investment. The gap between the investments can be bridged if the Islamic funds skewed the investment portfolio towards the social and ethical investment. Even though there is a limitation in the investment universe, I-REITs provide better diversification option and show better performance compared to the equity market during the economic crisis. The introduction of the Shariah-compliant REITs index for Asia Pacific allows the fund managers to benchmark the performance of either the funds or the sector with other investment vehicles. This will encourage more investors to consider I-REIT in the decision making of the asset allocation portfolio and broadening the horizon of the investment. Originality/value The contribution of the study is the examination and analysis of the Shariah framework currently adopted for Islamic REITs. This will assist in the identification of specific issues associated with Islamic REITs that will need to be addressed in the development and application of further research in the aspect of the management and operations to increase the efficiency level and better performance in order to capture more investors in this specific and promising market.

Generalizing the use of geographical weights in biodiversity modelling

Aim Determining how ecological processes vary across space is a major focus in ecology. Current methods that investigate such effects remain constrained by important limiting assumptions. Here we provide an extension to geographically weighted regression in which local regression and spatial weighting are used in combination. This method can be used to investigate non-stationarity and spatial-scale effects using any regression technique that can accommodate uneven weighting of observations, including machine learning. Innovation We extend the use of spatial weights to generalized linear models and boosted regression trees by using simulated data for which the results are known, and compare these local approaches with existing alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The spatial weighting procedure (1) explained up to 80% deviance in simulated species richness, (2) optimized the normal distribution of model residuals when applied to generalized linear models versus GWR, and (3) detected nonlinear relationships and interactions between response variables and their predictors when applied to boosted regression trees. Predictor ranking changed with spatial scale, highlighting the scales at which different species–environment relationships need to be considered. Main conclusions GWR is useful for investigating spatially varying species–environment relationships. However, the use of local weights implemented in alternative modelling techniques can help detect nonlinear relationships and high-order interactions that were previously unassessed. Therefore, this method not only informs us how location and scale influence our perception of patterns and processes, it also offers a way to deal with different ecological interpretations that can emerge as different areas of spatial influence are considered during model fitting.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Body composition and components of energy expenditure in children with end-stage liver disease

Background: Better understanding of body composition and energy metabolism in pediatric liver disease may provide a scientific basis for improved medical therapy aimed at achieving optimal nutrition, slowing progression to end-stage liver disease (ESLD), and improving the outcome of liver transplantation. Methods: Twenty-one children less than 2 years of age with ESLD awaiting liver transplantation and 15 healthy, aged-matched controls had body compartment analysis using a four compartment model (body cell mass, fat mass, extracellular water, and extracellular solids). Subjects also had measurements of resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) by indirect calorimetry. Nine patients and 15 control subjects also had measurements of total energy expenditure (TEE) using doubly labelled water. Results: Mean weights and heights were similar in the two groups. Compared with control subjects, children with ESLD had higher relative mean body cell mass (33 ± 2% vs 29 ± 1% of body weight, P < 0.05), but had similar fat mass, extracellular water, and extracellular solid compartments (18% vs 20%, 41% vs 38%, and 7% vs 13% of body weight respectively). Compared with control subjects, children with ESLD had 27% higher mean REE/body weight (0.285 ± 0.013 vs 0.218. ± 0.013 mJ/kg/24h, P < 0.001), 16% higher REE/unit cell mass (P < 0.05); and lower mean RQ (P < 0.05). Mean TEE of patients was 4.70 ± 0.49 mJ/24h vs 3.19 ± 0.76 in controls, (P < 0.01). Conclusions: In children, ESLD is a hypermetabolic state adversely affecting the relationship between metabolic and non-metabolic body compartments. There is increased metabolic activity within the body cell mass with excess lipid oxidation during fasting and at rest. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate nutritional therapy.

Agile innovation: Innovating with enterprise systems

The contemporary organisations are presented with an eclectic collection of technologies that has dramatically shifted the process of innovation. This thesis investigates the nature and the process of attaining innovation through the modern IT portfolio. A qualitative study of nine organizations was conducted. The results identified that the modern IT portfolio innovates through a new innovation process called 'agile innovation,' which differs from the existing innovation types.

Induced smoothing for rank regression with censored survival times

Adaptions of weighted rank regression to the accelerated failure time model for censored survival data have been successful in yielding asymptotically normal estimates and flexible weighting schemes to increase statistical efficiencies. However, for only one simple weighting scheme, Gehan or Wilcoxon weights, are estimating equations guaranteed to be monotone in parameter components, and even in this case are step functions, requiring the equivalent of linear programming for computation. The lack of smoothness makes standard error or covariance matrix estimation even more difficult. An induced smoothing technique overcame these difficulties in various problems involving monotone but pure jump estimating equations, including conventional rank regression. The present paper applies induced smoothing to the Gehan-Wilcoxon weighted rank regression for the accelerated failure time model, for the more difficult case of survival time data subject to censoring, where the inapplicability of permutation arguments necessitates a new method of estimating null variance of estimating functions. Smooth monotone parameter estimation and rapid, reliable standard error or covariance matrix estimation is obtained.

Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

Intergenerational collaborative drawing: A research method for researching with/about young children

This paper focuses on the methodological effectiveness of intergenerational collaborative drawing (ICD). A group of eight researchers trialled this particular approach to drawing, most of them for the first time. Each researcher drew with young children, peers and tertiary students, with drawings created over a period of six months. The eight researchers came together in a 'community of scholars' approach to this project because of two shared interests: (i) issues of social justice, access and equity; and (ii) arts-based education research methods. The researchers were curious how ICD might methodologically support their respective research processes. As knowledge and theory about young children becomes more complex, researchers need responsive methodological tools to ask new questions and conduct rigorous, ethical research. This partial account describes how drawing together might perform methodologically. The data reported here draws from the detailed field notes, drawings and reflections of the researchers. Conclusions arise from the analysis of these reflections, with the authors suggesting ways in which ICD might benefit research with young children.

Significant evidence of one or more susceptibility loci for endometriosis with near-Mendelian inheritance on chromosome 7p13-15

BACKGROUND: Endometriosis is a common disease with a heritable component. The collaborative International Endogene Study consists of two data sets (Oxford and Australia) comprising 1176 families with multiple affected. The aim was to investigate whether the apparent concentration of cases in a proportion of families could be explained by one or more rare variants with (near-)Mendelian autosomal inheritance. METHODS AND RESULTS: Linkage analyses (aimed at finding chromosomal regions harbouring disease-predisposing genes) were conducted in families with three or more affected (Oxford: n = 52; Australia: n = 196). In the Oxford data set, a non-parametric linkage score (Kong & Cox (K&C) Log of ODds (LOD)) of 3.52 was observed on chromosome 7p (genome-wide significance P = 0.011). A parametric MOD score (equal to maximum LOD maximized over 357 possible inheritance models) of 3.89 was found at 65.72 cM (D7S510) for a dominant model with reduced penetrance. After including the Australian data set, the non-parametric K&C LOD of the combined data set was 1.46 at 57.3 cM; the parametric analysis found an MOD score of 3.30 at D7S484 (empirical significance: P = 0.035) for a recessive model with high penetrance. Critical recombinant analysis narrowed the probable region of linkage down to overlapping 6.4 Mb and 11 Mb intervals containing 48 and 96 genes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report to suggest that there may be one or more high-penetrance susceptibility loci for endometriosis with (near-)Mendelian inheritance.