Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

A general approach to tune the vibration properties of the mounting system in the high-speed and heavy-duty engine

Majority of the current research on the mounting system has emphasised on the low/medium power engine, rare work has been reported for the high-speed and heavy-duty engine, the vibration characteristics of which exhibits significantly increased complexity and uncertainty. In this work, a general dynamics model was firstly established to describe the dynamic properties of a mounting system with various numbers of mounts. Then, this model was employed for the optimization of the mounting system. A modified Powell conjugate direction method was developed to improve the optimization efficiency. Basing on the optimization results obtained from the theoretical model, a mounting system was constructed for a V6 diesel engine. The experimental measurement of the vibration intensity of the mounting systems shows excellent agreement with the theoretical calculations, indicating the validity of the model. This dynamics model opens a new avenue in assessing and designing the mounting system for a high-speed and heavy-duty engine. On the other hand, the delineated dynamics model, and the optimization algorithm should find wide applications for other mounting systems, such as the power transmission system which usually has various uncertain mounts.

Desalination with a solar-assisted heat pump : an economic optimization

The solar-assisted heat pump (SAHP) desalination, based on the Rankin cycle, operates in low temperature and utilizes both solar and ambient energy. An experimental SAHP desalination system has been constructed at the National University of Singapore, Singapore. The system consisted of two main sections: an SAHP and a water distillation section. Experiments were carried out under the different meteorological condition of Singapore and results showed that the system had a performance ratio close to 1.3. The heat pump has a coefficient of performance of about 8, with solar collector efficiencies of 80% and 60% for evaporator and liquid collectors, respectively. Economic analysis showed that at a production rate of 900 L/day and an evaporator collector area of around 70m2 will have a payback period of about 3.5 years.

Efficiency optimization for bidirectional IPT system

Compared with unidirectional inductive power transfer (UIPT) systems which are suitable for passive loads, bidirectional IPT (BIPT) systems can be used for active loads with power regenerative capability. There are numerous BIPT systems that have been proposed previously to achieve improved performance. However, typical BIPT systems are controlled through modulation of phase-shift of each converter while keeping the relative phase angle between voltages produced by two converters at ± 90 degrees. This paper presents theoretical analysis to show that there is a unique phase shift for each converter at which the inductive coils losses of the system is minimized for a given load. Simulated results of a BIPT system, compensated by CLCL resonant networks, are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed concept and the validity of the mathematical model.

Biodiesel production from non-edible beauty leaf (Calophyllum Inophyllum) oil : process optimization using response surface methodology (RSM)

In recent years, the beauty leaf plant (Calophyllum Inophyllum) is being considered as a potential 2nd generation biodiesel source due to high seed oil content, high fruit production rate, simple cultivation and ability to grow in a wide range of climate conditions. However, however, due to the high free fatty acid (FFA) content in this oil, the potential of this biodiesel feedstock is still unrealized, and little research has been undertaken on it. In this study, transesterification of beauty leaf oil to produce biodiesel has been investigated. A two-step biodiesel conversion method consisting of acid catalysed pre-esterification and alkali catalysed transesterification has been utilized. The three main factors that drive the biodiesel (fatty acid methyl ester (FAME)) conversion from vegetable oil (triglycerides) were studied using response surface methodology (RSM) based on a Box-Behnken experimental design. The factors considered in this study were catalyst concentration, methanol to oil molar ratio and reaction temperature. Linear and full quadratic regression models were developed to predict FFA and FAME concentration and to optimize the reaction conditions. The significance of these factors and their interaction in both stages was determined using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The reaction conditions for the largest reduction in FFA concentration for acid catalysed pre-esterification was 30:1 methanol to oil molar ratio, 10% (w/w) sulfuric acid catalyst loading and 75 °C reaction temperature. In the alkali catalysed transesterification process 7.5:1 methanol to oil molar ratio, 1% (w/w) sodium methoxide catalyst loading and 55 °C reaction temperature were found to result in the highest FAME conversion. The good agreement between model outputs and experimental results demonstrated that this methodology may be useful for industrial process optimization for biodiesel production from beauty leaf oil and possibly other industrial processes as well.

Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Clinically-based automatic implant fitting for shape optimization of fracture fixation plates

Complex bone contour and anatomical variations between individual bones complicate the process of deriving an implant shape that fits majority of the population. This thesis proposes an automatic fitting method for anatomically-precontoured plates based on clinical requirements, and investigated if 100% anatomical fit for a group of bone is achievable through manual bending of one plate shape. It was found that, for the plate used, 100% fit is impossible to achieve through manual bending alone. Rather, newly-developed shapes are also required to obtain anatomical fit in areas with more complex bone contour.

Learned stochastic mobility prediction for planning with control uncertainty on unstructured terrain

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.

Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

A model predictive approach for community battery energy storage system optimization

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for optimizing the operation of battery storage in a low voltage distribution network with a high penetration of PV generation. A predictive control solution is presented that uses wavelet neural networks to predict the load and PV generation at hourly intervals for twelve hours into the future. The load and generation forecast, and the previous twelve hours of load and generation history, is used to assemble load profile. A diurnal charging profile can be compactly represented by a vector of Fourier coefficients allowing a direct search optimization algorithm to be applied. The optimal profile is updated hourly allowing the state of charge profile to respond to changing forecasts in load.

Uncertainty quantification applied to the performance analysis of a conical diffuser

This paper offers an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study applied to the performance analysis of the ERCOFTAC conical diffuser. A deterministic CFD solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalised Polynomial Chaos(gPC)representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. Such approach has the advantage to not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic field. The stochactic results highlihgt the importance of the inlet velocity uncertainties on the pressure recovery both alone and when coupled with a second uncertain variable. From a theoretical point of view, we investigate the possibility to build our gPC representation on arbitray grid, thus increasing the flexibility of the stochastic framework.