Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

An accuracy assessment of ASTER stereo images-derived digital elevation model by using rational polynomial coefficient model

The along-track stereo images of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor with 15 m resolution were used to generate Digital Elevation Model (DEM) on an area with low and near Mean Sea Level (MSL) elevation in Johor, Malaysia. The absolute DEM was generated by using the Rational Polynomial Coefficient (RPC) model which was run on ENVI 4.8 software. In order to generate the absolute DEM, 60 Ground Control Pointes (GCPs) with almost vertical accuracy less than 10 meter extracted from topographic map of the study area. The assessment was carried out on uncorrected and corrected DEM by utilizing dozens of Independent Check Points (ICPs). Consequently, the uncorrected DEM showed the RMSEz of ± 26.43 meter which was decreased to the RMSEz of ± 16.49 meter for the corrected DEM after post-processing. Overall, the corrected DEM of ASTER stereo images met the expectations.

Why, how, what for? : motivations, actions and expectations in habitual entrepreneurship

Principal topic: Is habitual entrepreneurship different? Answering this is important to the field, however there is little systematic evidence, thus far. We addresses this by examining the role experience plays at three possible points of difference: motivations, actions and expectations; and by comparing those currently in the process of starting a business with those who have recent success in business creation. Firstly, we assess the balance of opportunity versus necessity motivation, internally versus externally stimulated decision processes and future growth aspirations. Literature suggests novices are more likely motivated to nascency out of necessity, and favour a manageable business size, while habitual entrepreneurs are more likely motivated by internally stimulated or idea driven processes. Secondly, we examine actions undertaken by successful experienced founders during gestation, contrasting ‘information collection’ and ‘opportunity definition’. Drawing on prior research we expect novices more likely to have enacted ‘information search’ while habitual entrepreneurs enact ‘opportunity definition’. Thirdly, we examine perceptions of venture success, where findings on overconfidence suggest that habitual entrepreneurs expect a higher chance of success for their ventures, while inexperience leads novices to underestimate the difficulty of entrepreneurial survival. Method: Empirical evidence to test these conjectures was drawn from a screened random sample of over 1100 Australian nascent and newly started business ventures. This information was collected during 2007/8 using a telephone survey. Results and Implications: Why do habitual entrepreneurs keep coming back? Findings suggest that while the pursuit of opportunity is shared by novice and experienced entrepreneur alike, consideration of repeat entrepreneurship may be motivated by a desire for growth. While idea driven motivations might not delineate a distinction during nascency, it does seem to be a factor contributing to the success of young firms. This warrants further research. How do habitual entrepreneurs behave differently? It seems they act to clearly define market opportunities as a matter of priority during venture gestation. What effect does entrepreneurial experience have on future expectations? Clearly a sense of realism is drawn over the difficulties that might be faced, and accords more circumspect judgements of venture survival. This finding informs practitioners considering entrepreneurship for the first time.

Cognitive behaviour therapy vs rational-emotive education : impact on children's self-talk, self-esteem and irrational beliefs

This study investigated the impact of Cognitive-Behavioural Therapy (CBT) and Rational~Emotive Education (REE) self-enhancement programs on children's self-talk, self-esteem and irrational beliefs. A total of 116 children (50.9% girls) with a mean age of 9.8 years attending Years 4 and 6 at two primary schools participated in the study. eBT resulted in a reduction in negative self-talk while REE seemed to enhance independence beliefs. Both programs were associated with increased positive self-talk and with having increased rationality in Conformity and Discomfort Intolerance beliefs.

BIM : expectations and a reality check

BIM (Building Information Modelling) is an approach that involves applying and maintaining an integral digital representation of all building information for different phases of the project lifecycle. This paper presents an analysis of the current state of BIM in the industry and a re-assessment of its role and potential contribution in the near future, given the apparent slow rate of adoption by the industry. The paper analyses the readiness of the building industry with respect to the product, processes and people to present an argument on where the expectations from BIM and its adoption may have been misplaced. This paper reports on the findings from: (1) a critical review of latest BIM literature and commercial applications, and (2) workshops with focus groups on changing work-practice, role of technology, current perceptions and expectations of BIM.

Levelling expectations across different years in an undergraduate degree to support work-related learning : evidence for a multi-pronged approach.

One of the ways in which university departments and faculties can enhance the quality of learning and assessment is to develop a ‘well thought out criterion‐referenced assessment system’ (Biggs, 2003, p. 271). In designing undergraduate degrees (courses) this entails making decisions about the levelling of expectations across different years through devising objectives and their corresponding criteria and standards: a process of alignment analogous to what happens in unit (subject) design. These decisions about levelling have important repercussions in terms of supporting students’ work‐related learning, especially in relation to their ability to cope with the increasing cognitive and skill demands made on them as they progress through their studies. They also affect the accountability of teacher judgments of students’ responses to assessment tasks, achievement of unit objectives and, ultimately, whether students are awarded their degrees and are sufficiently prepared for the world of work. Research reveals that this decision‐making process is rarely underpinned by an explicit educational rationale (Morgan et al, 2002). The decision to implement criterion referenced assessment in an undergraduate microbiology degree was the impetus for developing such a rationale because of the implications for alignment, and therefore ‘levelling’ of expectations across different years of the degree. This paper provides supporting evidence for a multi‐pronged approach to levelling, through backward mapping of two revised units (foundation and exit year). This approach adheres to the principles of alignment while combining a work‐related approach (via industry input) with the blended disciplinary and learner‐centred approaches proposed by Morgan et al. (2002). It is suggested that this multi‐pronged approach has the potential for making expectations, especially work‐related ones across different year levels of degrees, more explicit to students and future employers.

Too great expectations?

Teachers have always been charged with the task of turning out the next generation of citizens—educated, healthy in mind, and healthy in body. The central question here is: how far should this responsibility extend? Just how much can we reasonably expect teachers to be responsible for? And just what should schools be responsible for? Obviously, teachers ought to be responsible for the fundamentals of learning, but should they be held accountable for what the children eat, or how they choose to behave, or for every single risk, direct or indirect, that could conceivably occur within the school grounds? These are precisely the kinds of expectation that have become part of educational life. Bit by bit, new forms of responsibility are being added to the site of the school and, more specifically, to the professional life of the teacher. The intention here is not necessarily to challenge any of these diverse changes, but rather to express concern about their cumulative effect on the ability of the school to do its primary job effectively.

Modeling corneal surfaces with rational functions for high-speed videokeratoscopy data compression

High-speed videokeratoscopy is an emerging technique that enables study of the corneal surface and tear-film dynamics. Unlike its static predecessor, this new technique results in a very large amount of digital data for which storage needs become significant. We aimed to design a compression technique that would use mathematical functions to parsimoniously fit corneal surface data with a minimum number of coefficients. Since the Zernike polynomial functions that have been traditionally used for modeling corneal surfaces may not necessarily correctly represent given corneal surface data in terms of its optical performance, we introduced the concept of Zernike polynomial-based rational functions. Modeling optimality criteria were employed in terms of both the rms surface error as well as the point spread function cross-correlation. The parameters of approximations were estimated using a nonlinear least-squares procedure based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. A large number of retrospective videokeratoscopic measurements were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed rational-function-based modeling approach. The results indicate that the rational functions almost always outperform the traditional Zernike polynomial approximations with the same number of coefficients.