Self excitation in equity indices

A "self-exciting" market is one in which the probability of observing a crash increases in response to the occurrence of a crash. It essentially describes cases where the initial crash serves to weaken the system to some extent, making subsequent crashes more likely. This thesis investigates if equity markets possess this property. A self-exciting extension of the well-known jump-based Bates (1996) model is used as the workhorse model for this thesis, and a particle-filtering algorithm is used to facilitate estimation by means of maximum likelihood. The estimation method is developed so that option prices are easily included in the dataset, leading to higher quality estimates. Equilibrium arguments are used to price the risks associated with the time-varying crash probability, and in turn to motivate a risk-neutral system for use in option pricing. The option pricing function for the model is obtained via the application of widely-used Fourier techniques. An application to S&P500 index returns and a panel of S&P500 index option prices reveals evidence of self excitation.

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Buy low, sell high

We consider online trading in a single security with the objective of getting rich when its price ever exhibits a large upcrossing, without risking bankruptcy. We investigate payoff guarantees that are expressed in terms of the extremity of the upcrossings. We obtain an exact and elegant characterisation of the guarantees that can be achieved. Moreover, we derive a simple canonical strategy for each attainable guarantee.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

The taxing effects of the advance pricing arrangement program: A review of APAs and their impact on stakeholders

The current transfer pricing rules contained in Australia’s taxation regime are designed to counter the underpayment of tax by businesses engaged in international related-party dealings. Currently, these transactions must take place at an arm’s length price, a requirement which is becoming increasingly difficult to demonstrate. This results in an increased risk of an audit by the Australian Taxation Office. If a taxpayer wishes to avoid the risk of an audit, and any ensuing penalties, there is one option: an advance pricing arrangement (‘APA’). An APA is an agreement whereby the future transfer pricing methodology to be used to determine the arm’s length price is agreed to by the taxpayer and the relevant tax authority or authorities. This article investigates the use of APAs as a solution to the problem of transfer pricing and considers their impact on stakeholders. It is argued that while APAs provide a valuable practical tool for multinational entities facing the challenges of the taxation of global trading under the current regime, they may not be a practical long term solution.

Advance pricing arrangements : an Australian Tax Office success or a legislative failure?

Australia’s domestic income tax legislation and double tax agreements contain transfer pricing rules which are designed to counter the underpayment of tax by businesses engaged in international dealings between related parties. The current legislation and agreements require that related party transactions take place at a value which reflects an arm’s length price, that is, a price which would be charged between unrelated parties. For a host of reasons, it is increasingly difficult for multinational entities to demonstrate that they are transferring goods and services at a price which is reflective of the behaviour of independent parties, thereby making it difficult to demonstrate compliance with the relevant legislation. Further, where an Australian business undertakes cross-border related party transactions there is the risk of an audit by the Australian Tax Office (ATO). If a business wishes to avoid the risk of an audit, and any ensuing penalties, there is one option: an advance pricing arrangement (APA). An APA is an agreement whereby the future transfer pricing methodology to be used to determine the arm’s length price is agreed to by the taxpayer and the relevant tax authority or authorities. The ATO views the APA process as an important part of its international tax strategy and believes that there are complementary benefits provided to both the taxpayer and the ATO. The ATO promotes the APA process on the basis of creating greater certainty for all parties while reducing compliance costs and the risk of audit and penalty. While the ATO regards the APA system as a success, it may be argued that the implementation of such a system is simply a practical solution to an ongoing problem of an inherent failure in both the legislation and ATO interpretation and application of this legislation to provide certainty to the taxpayer. This paper investigates the use of APAs as a solution to the problem of transfer pricing and considers whether they are the success the ATO claims. It is argued that there is no doubt that APAs provide a valuable practical tool for multinational entities facing the challenges of the taxation of global trading under the current transfer pricing regime. It does not, however, provide a long term solution. Rather, the long term solution may be in the form of legislative amendment.

Travel behavior of workers in Dhaka and their attitude towards road pricing

Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is facing severe traffic congestion. Owing to the flaws in past land use and transport planning decisions, uncontrolled population growth and urbanization, Dhaka’s traffic condition is worsening. Road space is widely regarded in the literature as a utility, so a common view of transport economists is that its usage ought to be charged. Road pricing policy has proven to be effective in managing travel demand, in order to reduce traffic congestion from road networks in a number of cities including London, Stockholm and Singapore. Road pricing as an economic mechanism to manage travel demand can be more effective and user-friendly when revenue is hypothecated into supply alternatives such as improvements to the transit system. This research investigates the feasibility of adopting road pricing in Dhaka with respect to a significant Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project. Because both are very new concepts for the population of Dhaka, public acceptability would be a principal issue driving their success or failure. This paper explores the travel behaviour of workers in Dhaka and public perception toward Road Pricing with regards to work trips- based on worker’s travel behaviour. A revealed preference and stated preference survey has been conducted on sample of workers in Dhaka. They were asked limited demographic questions, their current travel behaviour and at the end they had been given several hypothetical choices of integrated BRT and road pricing to choose from. Key finding from the survey is the objective of integrated road pricing; subsidies Bus rapid Transit by road pricing to get reduced BRT fare; cannot be achieved in Dhaka. This is because most of the respondent stated that they would choose the cheapest option Walk-BRT-Walk, even though this would be more time consuming and uncomfortable as they have to walk from home to BRT station and also from BRT station to home. Proper economic analysis has to be carried out to find out the appropriate fare of BRT and road charge with some incentive for the low income people.

Langevin dynamics modeling of the water diffusion tensor in partially aligned collagen networks

In this work, a Langevin dynamics model of the diffusion of water in articular cartilage was developed. Numerical simulations of the translational dynamics of water molecules and their interaction with collagen fibers were used to study the quantitative relationship between the organization of the collagen fiber network and the diffusion tensor of water in model cartilage. Langevin dynamics was used to simulate water diffusion in both ordered and partially disordered cartilage models. In addition, an analytical approach was developed to estimate the diffusion tensor for a network comprising a given distribution of fiber orientations. The key findings are that (1) an approximately linear relationship was observed between collagen volume fraction and the fractional anisotropy of the diffusion tensor in fiber networks of a given degree of alignment, (2) for any given fiber volume fraction, fractional anisotropy follows a fiber alignment dependency similar to the square of the second Legendre polynomial of cos(θ), with the minimum anisotropy occurring at approximately the magic angle (θMA), and (3) a decrease in the principal eigenvalue and an increase in the transverse eigenvalues is observed as the fiber orientation angle θ progresses from 0◦ to 90◦. The corresponding diffusion ellipsoids are prolate for θ < θMA, spherical for θ ≈ θMA, and oblate for θ > θMA. Expansion of the model to include discrimination between the combined effects of alignment disorder and collagen fiber volume fraction on the diffusion tensor is discussed.

Closed system isolation and scalable expansion of human placental mesenchymal stem cells

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) are emerging as a leading cellular therapy for a number of diseases. However, for such treatments to become available as a routine therapeutic option, efficient and cost-effective means for industrial manufacture of MSC are required. At present, clinical grade MSC are manufactured through a process of manual cell culture in specialized cGMP facilities. This process is open, extremely labor intensive, costly, and impractical for anything more than a small number of patients. While it has been shown that MSC can be cultivated in stirred bioreactor systems using microcarriers, providing a route to process scale-up, the degree of numerical expansion achieved has generally been limited. Furthermore, little attention has been given to the issue of primary cell isolation from complex tissues such as placenta. In this article we describe the initial development of a closed process for bulk isolation of MSC from human placenta, and subsequent cultivation on microcarriers in scalable single-use bioreactor systems. Based on our initial data, we estimate that a single placenta may be sufficient to produce over 7,000 doses of therapeutic MSC using a large-scale process.

A novel real time pricing scheme for demand response in residential distribution systems

Price based technique is one way to handle increase in peak demand and deal with voltage violations in residential distribution systems. This paper proposes an improved real time pricing scheme for residential customers with demand response option. Smart meters and in-home display units are used to broadcast the price and appropriate load adjustment signals. Customers are given an opportunity to respond to the signals and adjust the loads. This scheme helps distribution companies to deal with overloading problems and voltage issues in a more efficient way. Also, variations in wholesale electricity prices are passed on to electricity customers to take collective measure to reduce network peak demand. It is ensured that both customers and utility are benefitted by this scheme.

Transfer pricing and multinational financial institutions : the case for replacing arm’s length price with a unitary approach

The international tax system, designed a century ago, has not kept pace with the modern multinational entity rendering it ineffective in taxing many modern businesses according to economic activity. One of those modern multinational entities is the multinational financial institution (MNFI). The recent global financial crisis provides a particularly relevant and significant example of the failure of the current system on a global scale. The modern MNFI is increasingly undertaking more globalised and complex trading operations. A primary reason for the globalisation of financial institutions is that they typically ‘follow-the-customer’ into jurisdictions where international capital and international investors are required. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently reported that from 1995-2009, foreign bank presence in developing countries grew by 122 per cent. The same study indicates that foreign banks have a 20 per cent market share in OECD countries and 50 per cent in emerging markets and developing countries. Hence, most significant is that fact that MNFIs are increasingly undertaking an intermediary role in developing economies where they are financing core business activities such as mining and tourism. IMF analysis also suggests that in the future, foreign bank expansion will be greatest in emerging economies. The difficulties for developing countries in applying current international tax rules, especially the current traditional transfer pricing regime, are particularly acute in relation to MNFIs, which are the biggest users of tax havens and offshore finance. This paper investigates whether a unitary taxation approach which reflects economic reality would more easily and effectively ensure that the profits of MNFIs are taxed in the jurisdictions which give rise to those profits. It has previously been argued that the uniqueness of MNFIs results in a failure of the current system to accurately allocate profits and that unitary tax as an alternative could provide a sounder allocation model for international tax purposes. This paper goes a step further, and examines the practicalities of the implementation of unitary taxation for MNFIs in terms of the key components of such a regime, along with their their implications. This paper adopts a two-step approach in considering the implications of unitary taxation as a means of improved corporate tax coordination which requires international acceptance and agreement. First, the definitional issues of the unitary MNFI are examined and second, an appropriate allocation formula for this sector is investigated. To achieve this, the paper asks first, how the financial sector should be defined for the purposes of unitary taxation and what should constitute a unitary business for that sector and second, what is the ‘best practice’ model of an allocation formula for the purposes of the apportionment of the profits of the unitary business of a financial institution.

On the efficacy of Fourier series approximations for pricing European options

This paper investigates several competing procedures for computing the prices of vanilla European options, such as puts, calls and binaries, in which the underlying model has a characteristic function that is known in semi-closed form. The algorithms investigated here are the half-range Fourier cosine series, the half-range Fourier sine series and the full-range Fourier series. Their performance is assessed in simulation experiments in which an analytical solution is available and also for a simple affine model of stochastic volatility in which there is no closed-form solution. The results suggest that the half-range sine series approximation is the least effective of the three proposed algorithms. It is rather more difficult to distinguish between the performance of the halfrange cosine series and the full-range Fourier series. However there are two clear differences. First, when the interval over which the density is approximated is relatively large, the full-range Fourier series is at least as good as the half-range Fourier cosine series, and outperforms the latter in pricing out-of-the-money call options, in particular with maturities of three months or less. Second, the computational time required by the half-range Fourier cosine series is uniformly longer than that required by the full-range Fourier series for an interval of fixed length. Taken together,these two conclusions make a case for pricing options using a full-range range Fourier series as opposed to a half-range Fourier cosine series if a large number of options are to be priced in as short a time as possible.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.