Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Report : development of a methodology for assessing variation in maintenance and rehabilitation costs

In the previous research CRC CI 2001-010-C “Investment Decision Framework for Infrastructure Asset Management”, a method for assessing variation in cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation was developed. The variability of pavement strength collected from a 92km national highway was used in the analysis to demonstrate the concept. Further analysis was conducted to identify critical input parameters that significantly affect the prediction of road deterioration. In addition to pavement strength, rut depth, annual traffic loading and initial roughness were found to be critical input parameters for road deterioration. This report presents a method developed to incorporate other critical parameters in the analysis, such as unit costs, which are suspected to contribute to a certain degree to cost estimate variation. Thus, the variability of unit costs will be incorporated in this analysis. Bruce Highway located in the tropical east coast of Queensland has been identified to be the network for the analysis. This report presents a step by step methodology for assessing variation in road maintenance and rehabilitation cost estimates.

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

The future of roads: How road agencies are facing a conflicted future

Although road construction and use provides significant economic and social benefits, its environmental impact is of growing concern. Roads are one of the greatest greenhouse gas contributors, both directly through fossil energy consumed in mining, transporting, earthworks and paving work, and through the emissions from road use by vehicles. Further,according to the Australian Government, when combined with expected population growth and internal migration,expected changes in temperature and rainfall are expected to increase road maintenance costs. This discussion paper will outline opportunities within the Australian context for reducing environmental and carbon pressure from road building, and provide a framework for considering the potential pressures that will affect the resilience of roads to the impacts of climate change and oil vulnerability.

Mobile assessment of on-road air pollution and its sources along the East-West Highway in Bhutan

Human exposures in transportation microenvironments are poorly represented by ambient stationary monitoring. A number of on-road studies using vehicle-based mobile monitoring have been conducted to address this. Most previous studies were conducted on urban roads in developed countries where the primary emission source was vehicles. Few studies have examined on-road pollution in developing countries in urban settings. Currently, no study has been conducted for roadways in rural environments where a substantial proportion of the population live. This study aimed to characterize on-road air quality on the East-West Highway (EWH) in Bhutan and identify its principal sources. We conducted six mobile measurements of PM10, particle number (PN) count and CO along the entire 570 km length of the EWH. We divided the EWH into five segments, R1-R5, taking the road length between two district towns as a single road segment. The pollutant concentrations varied widely along the different road segments, with the highest concentrations for R5 compared with other road segments (PM10 = 149 µg/m3, PN = 5.74 × 104 particles/cm-3, CO = 0.19 ppm), which is the final segment of the road to the capital. Apart from vehicle emissions, the dominant sources were road works, unpaved roads and roadside combustion activities. Overall, the highest contributions above the background levels were made by unpaved roads for PM10 (6 times background), and vehicle emissions for PN and CO (5 and 15 times background, respectively). Notwithstanding the differences in instrumentation used and particle size range measured, the current study showed lower PN concentrations compared with similar on-road studies. However, concentrations were still high enough that commuters, road maintenance workers and residents living along the EWH, were potentially exposed to elevated pollutant concentrations from combustion and non-combustion sources. Future studies should focus on assessing the dispersion patterns of roadway pollutants and defining the short- and long-term health impacts of exposure in Bhutan, as well as in other developing countries with similar characteristics.

Overloading truck traffic study and strategy to minimise it

Overloaded truck traffic is a significant problem on highways around the world. Developing countries in particular, overloaded truck traffic causes large amounts of unexpected expenditure in terms of road maintenance because of premature pavement damage. Overloaded truck traffic is a common phenomenon in developing countries, because of inefficient road management and monitoring systems. According to the available literature, many developing countries are facing the same problem, which is economic loss caused by the existence of overloaded trucks in the traffic stream. This paper summarizes the available literature, news reports, journal articles and traffic research regarding overloaded traffic. It examines the issue of overloading and the strategies and legislation used in developed countries.

Understanding pressures on the future of roads: A sustainable built environment National Research Centre Discussion Paper

According to the Australian Government, when combined with expected population growth and internal migration, expected changes in temperature and rainfall are expected to increase road maintenance costs by over 30 percent by 2100. This presents a significant future economic risk, in response, this paper will discuss the potential for roads to improve their resilience to the impacts of climate change and other key pressures. The paper will also highlight how such measures can inform state and national main road infrastructure planning and reduce future associated risks and costs.

The future of roads: Reducing environmental pressures and the management of carbon

Although road construction and use provides significant economic and social benefits, its environmental impact is of growing concern. Roads are one of the greatest greenhouse gas contributors, both directly through fossil energy consumed in mining, transporting, earthworks and paving work, plus the emissions from road use by vehicles. Further, according to the Australian Government, when combined with forecast population growth, internal migration and changes in temperature and rainfall, these are expected to increase road maintenance costs. This discussion paper outlines opportunities within the Australian context for reducing environmental and carbon pressure from road building, and provides a framework for considering the potential future pressures that will affect the resilience of roads to the impacts of climate change and oil vulnerability. Seven strategic areas are outlined for further investigation, including a guide to carbon management for road agencies covering planning, funding, procurement, delivery and maintenance of roads.

Final : report assessing risk and variation in maintenance and rehabilitation costs for road network

This report presents the results of research projects conducted by The Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, RMIT University, Queensland Government Department of Main Roads and Queensland Department of Public Works. The research projects aimed at developing a methodology for assessing variation and risk in investment in road network, including the application of the method in assessing road network performance and maintenance and rehabilitation costs for short- and long-term future investment.

Peer state assessment of TxDOT maintenance program and practices : workshop and road rally findings

In an effort to evaluate and improve their practices to ensure the future excellence of the Texas highway system, the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) sought a forum in which experts from other state departments of transportation could share their expertise. Thus, the Peer State Review of TxDOT Maintenance Practices project was organized and conducted for TxDOT by the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at The University of Texas at Austin. The goal of the project was to conduct a workshop at CTR and in the Austin District that would educate the visiting peers on TxDOT’s maintenance practices and invite their feedback. CTR and TxDOT arranged the participation of the following directors of maintenance: Steve Takigawa, CA; Roy Rissky, KS; Eric Pitts, GA; Jim Carney, MO; Jennifer Brandenburg, NC; and David Bierschbach, WA. One of the means used to capture the peer reviewers’ opinions was a carefully designed booklet of 15 questions. The peers provided TxDOT with written responses to these questions, and the oral comments made during the workshop were also captured. This information was then compiled and summarized in the following report. An examination of the peers’ comments suggests that TxDOT should use a more holistic, statewide approach to funding and planning rather than funding and planning for each district separately. Additionally, the peers stressed the importance of allocating funds based on the actual conditions of the roadways instead of on inventory. The visiting directors of maintenance also recommended continuing and proliferating programs that enhance communication, such as peer review workshops.