Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Relative entropy rate based multiple hidden Markov Model Approximation

This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

Illegal pedestrian crossing at signalised intersections : Incidence and relative risk

Illegal pedestrian behaviour is common and is reported as a factor in many pedestrian crashes. Since walking is being promoted for its health and environmental benefits, minimisation of its associated risks is of interest. The risk associated with illegal road crossing is unclear, and better information would assist in setting a rationale for enforcement and priorities for public education. An observation survey of pedestrian behaviour was conducted at signalised intersections in the Brisbane CBD (Queensland, Australia) on typical workdays, using behavioural categories that were identifiable in police crash reports. The survey confirmed high levels of crossing against the lights, or close enough to the lights that they should legally have been used. Measures of exposure for crossing legally, against the lights, and close to the lights were generated by weighting the observation data. Relative risk ratios were calculated for these categories using crash data from the observation sites and adjacent midblocks. Crossing against the lights and crossing close to the lights both exhibited a crash risk per crossing event approximately eight times that of legal crossing at signalised intersections. The implications of these results for enforcement and education are discussed, along with the limitations of the study.

The relative age effect in Australian Football League players

Youth sports teams are usually grouped into yearly age groups based on fixed cut-off date (September 1st in the UK and January 1st in Australia). Children born just after this cut-off will be the oldest and most mature in their age group. This gives them an advantage in competitive sport, an advantage which has persisted into adulthood as shown by seasonal patterns in the dates of birth of professional ice hockey, football and basketball players. We were interested in whether a similar seasonal pattern exists in professional Australian Football League (AFL) players. We examined all AFL players in the 2009 season excluding foreign-born players. We compared the observed number of players’ born in each month with the expected number based on national statistics. There was a marked and statistically significant seasonality in players’ dates of birth. There were 33% more players than expected with dates of birth in January, and 25% fewer in December. Players who are relatively older in youth AFL teams have a better chance of turning professional.

Relative income, happiness, and utility : an explanation for the Easterlin paradox and other puzzles

The well-known Easterlin paradox points out that average happiness has remained constant over time despite sharp rises in GNP per head. At the same time, a micro literature has typically found positive correlations between individual income and individual measures of subjective well-being. This paper suggests that these two findings are consistent with the presence of relative income terms in the utility function. Income may be evaluated relative to others (social comparison) or to oneself in the past (habituation). We review the evidence on relative income from the subjective well-being literature. We also discuss the relation (or not) between happiness and utility, and discuss some nonhappiness research (behavioral, experimental, neurological) related to income comparisons. We last consider how relative income in the utility function can affect economic models of behavior in the domains of consumption, investment, economic growth, savings, taxation, labor supply, wages, and migration.

The effect of prolonged reading on visual functions and reading performance in students with low vision

This study is the first to investigate the effect of prolonged reading on reading performance and visual functions in students with low vision. The study focuses on one of the most common modes of achieving adequate magnification for reading by students with low vision, their close reading distance (proximal or relative distance magnification). Close reading distances impose high demands on near visual functions, such as accommodation and convergence. Previous research on accommodation in children with low vision shows that their accommodative responses are reduced compared to normal vision. In addition, there is an increased lag of accommodation for higher stimulus levels as may occur at close reading distance. Reduced accommodative responses in low vision and higher lag of accommodation at close reading distances together could impact on reading performance of students with low vision especially during prolonged reading tasks. The presence of convergence anomalies could further affect reading performance. Therefore, the aims of the present study were 1) To investigate the effect of prolonged reading on reading performance in students with low vision 2) To investigate the effect of prolonged reading on visual functions in students with low vision. This study was conducted as cross-sectional research on 42 students with low vision and a comparison group of 20 students with normal vision, aged 7 to 20 years. The students with low vision had vision impairments arising from a range of causes and represented a typical group of students with low vision, with no significant developmental delays, attending school in Brisbane, Australia. All participants underwent a battery of clinical tests before and after a prolonged reading task. An initial reading-specific history and pre-task measurements that included Bailey-Lovie distance and near visual acuities, Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity, ocular deviations, sensory fusion, ocular motility, near point of accommodation (pull-away method), accuracy of accommodation (Monocular Estimation Method (MEM)) retinoscopy and Near Point of Convergence (NPC) (push-up method) were recorded for all participants. Reading performance measures were Maximum Oral Reading Rates (MORR), Near Text Visual Acuity (NTVA) and acuity reserves using Bailey-Lovie text charts. Symptoms of visual fatigue were assessed using the Convergence Insufficiency Symptom Survey (CISS) for all participants. Pre-task measurements of reading performance and accuracy of accommodation and NPC were compared with post-task measurements, to test for any effects of prolonged reading. The prolonged reading task involved reading a storybook silently for at least 30 minutes. The task was controlled for print size, contrast, difficulty level and content of the reading material. Silent Reading Rate (SRR) was recorded every 2 minutes during prolonged reading. Symptom scores and visual fatigue scores were also obtained for all participants. A visual fatigue analogue scale (VAS) was used to assess visual fatigue during the task, once at the beginning, once at the middle and once at the end of the task. In addition to the subjective assessments of visual fatigue, tonic accommodation was monitored using a photorefractor (PlusoptiX CR03™) every 6 minutes during the task, as an objective assessment of visual fatigue. Reading measures were done at the habitual reading distance of students with low vision and at 25 cms for students with normal vision. The initial history showed that the students with low vision read for significantly shorter periods at home compared to the students with normal vision. The working distances of participants with low vision ranged from 3-25 cms and half of them were not using any optical devices for magnification. Nearly half of the participants with low vision were able to resolve 8-point print (1M) at 25 cms. Half of the participants in the low vision group had ocular deviations and suppression at near. Reading rates were significantly reduced in students with low vision compared to those of students with normal vision. In addition, there were a significantly larger number of participants in the low vision group who could not sustain the 30-minute task compared to the normal vision group. However, there were no significant changes in reading rates during or following prolonged reading in either the low vision or normal vision groups. Individual changes in reading rates were independent of their baseline reading rates, indicating that the changes in reading rates during prolonged reading cannot be predicted from a typical clinical assessment of reading using brief reading tasks. Contrary to previous reports the silent reading rates of the students with low vision were significantly lower than their oral reading rates, although oral and silent reading was assessed using different methods. Although the visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, near point of convergence and accuracy of accommodation were significantly poorer for the low vision group compared to those of the normal vision group, there were no significant changes in any of these visual functions following prolonged reading in either group. Interestingly, a few students with low vision (n =10) were found to be reading at a distance closer than their near point of accommodation. This suggests a decreased sensitivity to blur. Further evaluation revealed that the equivalent intrinsic refractive errors (an estimate of the spherical dioptirc defocus which would be expected to yield a patient’s visual acuity in normal subjects) were significantly larger for the low vision group compared to those of the normal vision group. As expected, accommodative responses were significantly reduced for the low vision group compared to the expected norms, which is consistent with their close reading distances, reduced visual acuity and contrast sensitivity. For those in the low vision group who had an accommodative error exceeding their equivalent intrinsic refractive errors, a significant decrease in MORR was found following prolonged reading. The silent reading rates however were not significantly affected by accommodative errors in the present study. Suppression also had a significant impact on the changes in reading rates during prolonged reading. The participants who did not have suppression at near showed significant decreases in silent reading rates during and following prolonged reading. This impact of binocular vision at near on prolonged reading was possibly due to the high demands on convergence. The significant predictors of MORR in the low vision group were age, NTVA, reading interest and reading comprehension, accounting for 61.7% of the variances in MORR. SRR was not significantly influenced by any factors, except for the duration of the reading task sustained; participants with higher reading rates were able to sustain a longer reading duration. In students with normal vision, age was the only predictor of MORR. Participants with low vision also reported significantly greater visual fatigue compared to the normal vision group. Measures of tonic accommodation however were little influenced by visual fatigue in the present study. Visual fatigue analogue scores were found to be significantly associated with reading rates in students with low vision and normal vision. However, the patterns of association between visual fatigue and reading rates were different for SRR and MORR. The participants with low vision with higher symptom scores had lower SRRs and participants with higher visual fatigue had lower MORRs. As hypothesized, visual functions such as accuracy of accommodation and convergence did have an impact on prolonged reading in students with low vision, for students whose accommodative errors were greater than their equivalent intrinsic refractive errors, and for those who did not suppress one eye. Those students with low vision who have accommodative errors higher than their equivalent intrinsic refractive errors might significantly benefit from reading glasses. Similarly, considering prisms or occlusion for those without suppression might reduce the convergence demands in these students while using their close reading distances. The impact of these prescriptions on reading rates, reading interest and visual fatigue is an area of promising future research. Most importantly, it is evident from the present study that a combination of factors such as accommodative errors, near point of convergence and suppression should be considered when prescribing reading devices for students with low vision. Considering these factors would also assist rehabilitation specialists in identifying those students who are likely to experience difficulty in prolonged reading, which is otherwise not reflected during typical clinical reading assessments.

A hidden Markov model and relative entropy rate approach to vision-based dim target detection for UAV sense-and-avoid

Uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a cutting-edge technology that is at the forefront of aviation/aerospace research and development worldwide. Many consider their current military and defence applications as just a token of their enormous potential. Unlocking and fully exploiting this potential will see UAVs in a multitude of civilian applications and routinely operating alongside piloted aircraft. The key to realising the full potential of UAVs lies in addressing a host of regulatory, public relation, and technological challenges never encountered be- fore. Aircraft collision avoidance is considered to be one of the most important issues to be addressed, given its safety critical nature. The collision avoidance problem can be roughly organised into three areas: 1) Sense; 2) Detect; and 3) Avoid. Sensing is concerned with obtaining accurate and reliable information about other aircraft in the air; detection involves identifying potential collision threats based on available information; avoidance deals with the formulation and execution of appropriate manoeuvres to maintain safe separation. This thesis tackles the detection aspect of collision avoidance, via the development of a target detection algorithm that is capable of real-time operation onboard a UAV platform. One of the key challenges of the detection problem is the need to provide early warning. This translates to detecting potential threats whilst they are still far away, when their presence is likely to be obscured and hidden by noise. Another important consideration is the choice of sensors to capture target information, which has implications for the design and practical implementation of the detection algorithm. The main contributions of the thesis are: 1) the proposal of a dim target detection algorithm combining image morphology and hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering approaches; 2) the novel use of relative entropy rate (RER) concepts for HMM filter design; 3) the characterisation of algorithm detection performance based on simulated data as well as real in-flight target image data; and 4) the demonstration of the proposed algorithm's capacity for real-time target detection. We also consider the extension of HMM filtering techniques and the application of RER concepts for target heading angle estimation. In this thesis we propose a computer-vision based detection solution, due to the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) availability of camera hardware and the hardware's relatively low cost, power, and size requirements. The proposed target detection algorithm adopts a two-stage processing paradigm that begins with an image enhancement pre-processing stage followed by a track-before-detect (TBD) temporal processing stage that has been shown to be effective in dim target detection. We compare the performance of two candidate morphological filters for the image pre-processing stage, and propose a multiple hidden Markov model (MHMM) filter for the TBD temporal processing stage. The role of the morphological pre-processing stage is to exploit the spatial features of potential collision threats, while the MHMM filter serves to exploit the temporal characteristics or dynamics. The problem of optimising our proposed MHMM filter has been examined in detail. Our investigation has produced a novel design process for the MHMM filter that exploits information theory and entropy related concepts. The filter design process is posed as a mini-max optimisation problem based on a joint RER cost criterion. We provide proof that this joint RER cost criterion provides a bound on the conditional mean estimate (CME) performance of our MHMM filter, and this in turn establishes a strong theoretical basis connecting our filter design process to filter performance. Through this connection we can intelligently compare and optimise candidate filter models at the design stage, rather than having to resort to time consuming Monte Carlo simulations to gauge the relative performance of candidate designs. Moreover, the underlying entropy concepts are not constrained to any particular model type. This suggests that the RER concepts established here may be generalised to provide a useful design criterion for multiple model filtering approaches outside the class of HMM filters. In this thesis we also evaluate the performance of our proposed target detection algorithm under realistic operation conditions, and give consideration to the practical deployment of the detection algorithm onboard a UAV platform. Two fixed-wing UAVs were engaged to recreate various collision-course scenarios to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. Based on this collected data, our proposed detection approach was able to detect targets out to distances ranging from about 400m to 900m. These distances, (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning ahead of impact that approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. Furthermore, readily available graphic processing unit (GPU) based hardware is exploited for its parallel computing capabilities to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed target detection algorithm. A prototype hardware-in- the-loop system has been found to be capable of achieving data processing rates sufficient for real-time operation. There is also scope for further improvement in performance through code optimisations. Overall, our proposed image-based target detection algorithm offers UAVs a cost-effective real-time target detection capability that is a step forward in ad- dressing the collision avoidance issue that is currently one of the most significant obstacles preventing widespread civilian applications of uninhabited aircraft. We also highlight that the algorithm development process has led to the discovery of a powerful multiple HMM filtering approach and a novel RER-based multiple filter design process. The utility of our multiple HMM filtering approach and RER concepts, however, extend beyond the target detection problem. This is demonstrated by our application of HMM filters and RER concepts to a heading angle estimation problem.