The impact of red light cameras on safety in Arizona

Red light cameras (RLCs) have been used in a number of US cities to yield a demonstrable reduction in red light violations; however, evaluating their impact on safety (crashes) has been relatively more difficult. Accurately estimating the safety impacts of RLCs is challenging for several reasons. First, many safety related factors are uncontrolled and/or confounded during the periods of observation. Second, “spillover” effects caused by drivers reacting to non-RLC equipped intersections and approaches can make the selection of comparison sites difficult. Third, sites selected for RLC installation may not be selected randomly, and as a result may suffer from the regression to the mean bias. Finally, crash severity and resulting costs need to be considered in order to fully understand the safety impacts of RLCs. Recognizing these challenges, a study was conducted to estimate the safety impacts of RLCs on traffic crashes at signalized intersections in the cities of Phoenix and Scottsdale, Arizona. Twenty-four RLC equipped intersections in both cities are examined in detail and conclusions are drawn. Four different evaluation methodologies were employed to cope with the technical challenges described in this paper and to assess the sensitivity of results based on analytical assumptions. The evaluation results indicated that both Phoenix and Scottsdale are operating cost-effective installations of RLCs: however, the variability in RLC effectiveness within jurisdictions is larger in Phoenix. Consistent with findings in other regions, angle and left-turn crashes are reduced in general, while rear-end crashes tend to increase as a result of RLCs.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

Changes in cannabis use among psychotic clients without specialised substance use treatment

The need to address substance use among people with psychosis has been well established. However, treatment studies targeting substance use in this population have reported mixed results. Substance users with psychosis in no or minimal treatment control groups achieve similar reductions in substance use compared to those in more active substance use treatment, suggesting a role for natural recovery from substance use. This meta-analysis aims to quantify the amount of natural recovery from substance use within control groups of treatment studies containing samples of psychotic substance users, with a particular focus on changes in cannabis use. A systematic search was conducted to identify substance use treatment studies. Meta-analyses were performed to quantify reductions in the frequency of substance use in the past 30 days. Significant but modest reductions (mean reduction of 0.3–0.4 SD across the time points) in the frequency of substance use were found at 6 to 24 months follow up. The current study is the first to quantify changes in substance use in samples enrolled in no treatment or minimal treatment control conditions. These findings highlight the potential role of natural recovery from substance use among individuals with psychosis, although they do not rule out effects of regression to the mean. Additionally, the results provide a baseline from which to estimate likely changes or needed effects sizes in intervention studies. Future research is required to identify the processes underpinning these changes, in order to identify strategies that may better support self-management of substance use in people with psychosis.

What aspects of the scoliosis correction are most important to the teenager who has keyhole scoliosis correction surgery? A prospective series of 100 patients

Introduction. Surgical treatment of scoliosis is assessed in the spine clinic by the surgeon making numerous measurements on X-Rays as well as the rib hump. But it is important to understand which of these measures correlate with self-reported improvements in patients’ quality of life following surgery. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between patient satisfaction after thoracoscopic (keyhole) anterior scoliosis surgery and standard deformity correction measures using the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) adolescent questionnaire. Methods. A series of 100 consecutive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients received a single anterior rod via a keyhole approach at the Mater Children’s Hospital, Brisbane. Patients completed SRS outcomes questionnaires before surgery and again at 24 months after surgery. Multiple regression and t-tests were used to investigate the relationship between SRS scores and deformity correction achieved after surgery. Results. There were 94 females and 6 males with a mean age of 16.1 years. The mean Cobb angle improved from 52º pre-operatively to 21º for the instrumented levels post-operatively (59% correction) and the mean rib hump improved from 16º to 8º (51% correction). The mean total SRS score for the cohort was 99.4/120 which indicated a high level of satisfaction with the results of their scoliosis surgery. None of the deformity related parameters in the multiple regressions were significant. However, the twenty patients with the smallest Cobb angles after surgery reported significantly higher SRS scores than the twenty patients with the largest Cobb angles after surgery, but there was no difference on the basis of rib hump correction. Discussion. Patients undergoing thoracoscopic (keyhole) anterior scoliosis correction report good SRS scores which are comparable to those in previous studies. We suggest that the absence of any statistically significant difference in SRS scores between patients with and without rod or screw complications is because these complications are not associated with any clinically significant loss of correction in our patient group. The Cobb angle after surgery was the only significant predictor of patient satisfaction when comparing subgroups of patients with the largest and smallest Cobb angles after surgery.

Back to the roots : mean-variance analysis of relevance estimations

Recently, mean-variance analysis has been proposed as a novel paradigm to model document ranking in Information Retrieval. The main merit of this approach is that it diversifies the ranking of retrieved documents. In its original formulation, the strategy considers both the mean of relevance estimates of retrieved documents and their variance. How- ever, when this strategy has been empirically instantiated, the concepts of mean and variance are discarded in favour of a point-wise estimation of relevance (to replace the mean) and of a parameter to be tuned or, alternatively, a quantity dependent upon the document length (to replace the variance). In this paper we revisit this ranking strategy by going back to its roots: mean and variance. For each retrieved document, we infer a relevance distribution from a series of point-wise relevance estimations provided by a number of different systems. This is used to compute the mean and the variance of document relevance estimates. On the TREC Clueweb collection, we show that this approach improves the retrieval performances. This development could lead to new strategies to address the fusion of relevance estimates provided by different systems.

Supine to standing Cobb angle change in idiopathic scoliosis : the effect of endplate pre-selection

Background Supine imaging modalities provide valuable 3D information on scoliotic anatomy, but the altered spine geometry between the supine and standing positions affects the Cobb angle measurement. Previous studies report a mean 7°-10° Cobb angle increase from supine to standing, but none have reported the effect of endplate pre-selection or whether other parameters affect this Cobb angle difference. Methods Cobb angles from existing coronal radiographs were compared to those on existing low-dose CT scans taken within three months of the reference radiograph for a group of females with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Reformatted coronal CT images were used to measure supine Cobb angles with and without endplate pre-selection (end-plates selected from the radiographs) by two observers on three separate occasions. Inter and intra-observer measurement variability were assessed. Multi-linear regression was used to investigate whether there was a relationship between supine to standing Cobb angle change and eight variables: patient age, mass, standing Cobb angle, Risser sign, ligament laxity, Lenke type, fulcrum flexibility and time delay between radiograph and CT scan. Results Fifty-two patients with right thoracic Lenke Type 1 curves and mean age 14.6 years (SD 1.8) were included. The mean Cobb angle on standing radiographs was 51.9° (SD 6.7). The mean Cobb angle on supine CT images without pre-selection of endplates was 41.1° (SD 6.4). The mean Cobb angle on supine CT images with endplate pre-selection was 40.5° (SD 6.6). Pre-selecting vertebral endplates increased the mean Cobb change by 0.6° (SD 2.3, range −9° to 6°). When free to do so, observers chose different levels for the end vertebrae in 39% of cases. Multi-linear regression revealed a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb change and fulcrum flexibility (p = 0.001), age (p = 0.027) and standing Cobb angle (p < 0.001). The 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer and inter-observer measurement variability were 3.1° and 3.6°, respectively. Conclusions Pre-selecting vertebral endplates causes minor changes to the mean supine to standing Cobb change. There is a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb change and fulcrum flexibility such that this difference can be considered a potential alternative measure of spinal flexibility.

Fan motivation and loyalty : extending the Sport Interest Inventory (SII) to the Australian Football League

This study used the Sport Interest Inventory (SII) to examine the motivation of fans attending a game in the Australian Football League. This is the first study to use the SII for professional men’s team sport outside the United States. Confirmatory factor analysis showed the model provided a good fit for the data collected in Australia, and regression analysis revealed that team interest, vicarious achievement, excitement and player interest were the significant factors in predicting and explaining the level of attitudinal loyalty of fans toward their favourite team.

Retiring to the good life? The short-term effects of retirement on health

We estimate the impact of retirement on three subjective and objective measures of health using a regression discontinuity design. The results indicate that retirement increases an individual's sense of well-being and their mental health but not necessarily their physical health. Specifications tests suggest that the results are robust.

Development and synthesis of innovative approaches to the surgical assessment of articular cartilage degeneration

This research has established, through ultrasound, near infrared spectroscopy and biomechanics experiments, parameters and parametric relationships that can form the framework for quantifying the integrity of the articular cartilage-on-bone laminate, and objectively distinguish between normal/healthy and abnormal/degenerated joint tissue, with a focus on articular cartilage. This has been achieved by: 1. using traditional experimental methods to produce new parameters for cartilage assessment; 2. using novel methodologies to develop new parameters; and 3. investigating the interrelationships between mechanical, structural and molec- ular properties to identify and select those parameters and methodologies that can be used in a future arthroscopic probe based on points 1 and 2. By combining the molecular, micro- and macro-structural characteristics of the tissue with its mechanical properties, we arrive at a set of critical benchmarking parameters for viable and early-stage non-viable cartilage. The interrelationships between these characteristics, examined using a multivariate analysis based on principal components analysis, multiple linear regression and general linear modeling, could then to deter- mine those parameters and relationships which have the potential to be developed into a future clinical device. Specifically, this research has found that the ultrasound and near infrared techniques can subsume the mechanical parameters and combine to characterise the tissue at the molecular, structural and mechanical levels over the full depth of the cartilage matrix. It is the opinion in this thesis that by enabling the determination of the precise area of in uence of a focal defect or disease in the joint, demarcating the boundaries of articular cartilage with dierent levels of degeneration around a focal defect, better surgical decisions that will advance the processes of joint management and treatment will be achieved. Providing the basis for a surgical tool, this research will contribute to the enhancement and quanti�cation of arthroscopic procedures, extending to post- treatment monitoring and as a research tool, will enable a robust method for evaluating developing (particularly focalised) treatments.

An innovative approach to the assessment of nutrient intake in adults with type 2 diabetes : the development, trial and evaluation of a mobile phone photo/voice dietary record

Nutrition interventions in the form of both self-management education and individualised diet therapy are considered essential for the long-term management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The measurement of diet is essential to inform, support and evaluate nutrition interventions in the management of T2DM. Barriers inherent within health care settings and systems limit ongoing access to personnel and resources, while traditional prospective methods of assessing diet are burdensome for the individual and often result in changes in typical intake to facilitate recording. This thesis investigated the inclusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) to overcome limitations to current approaches in the nutritional management of T2DM, in particular the development, trial and evaluation of the Nutricam dietary assessment method (NuDAM) consisting of a mobile phone photo/voice application to assess nutrient intake in a free-living environment with older adults with T2DM. Study 1: Effectiveness of an automated telephone system in promoting change in dietary intake among adults with T2DM The effectiveness of an automated telephone system, Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes, designed to deliver self-management education was evaluated in terms of promoting dietary change in adults with T2DM and sub-optimal glycaemic control. In this secondary data analysis independent of the larger randomised controlled trial, complete data was available for 95 adults (59 male; mean age(±SD)=56.8±8.1 years; mean(±SD)BMI=34.2±7.0kg/m2). The treatment effect showed a reduction in total fat of 1.4% and saturated fat of 0.9% energy intake, body weight of 0.7 kg and waist circumference of 2.0 cm. In addition, a significant increase in the nutrition self-efficacy score of 1.3 (p<0.05) was observed in the TLC group compared to the control group. The modest trends observed in this study indicate that the TLC Diabetes system does support the adoption of positive nutrition behaviours as a result of diabetes self-management education, however caution must be applied in the interpretation of results due to the inherent limitations of the dietary assessment method used. The decision to use a close-list FFQ with known bias may have influenced the accuracy of reporting dietary intake in this instance. This study provided an example of the methodological challenges experienced with measuring changes in absolute diet using a FFQ, and reaffirmed the need for novel prospective assessment methods capable of capturing natural variance in usual intakes. Study 2: The development and trial of NuDAM recording protocol The feasibility of the Nutricam mobile phone photo/voice dietary record was evaluated in 10 adults with T2DM (6 Male; age=64.7±3.8 years; BMI=33.9±7.0 kg/m2). Intake was recorded over a 3-day period using both Nutricam and a written estimated food record (EFR). Compared to the EFR, the Nutricam device was found to be acceptable among subjects, however, energy intake was under-recorded using Nutricam (-0.6±0.8 MJ/day; p<0.05). Beverages and snacks were the items most frequently not recorded using Nutricam; however forgotten meals contributed to the greatest difference in energy intake between records. In addition, the quality of dietary data recorded using Nutricam was unacceptable for just under one-third of entries. It was concluded that an additional mechanism was necessary to complement dietary information collected via Nutricam. Modifications to the method were made to allow for clarification of Nutricam entries and probing forgotten foods during a brief phone call to the subject the following morning. The revised recording protocol was evaluated in Study 4. Study 3: The development and trial of the NuDAM analysis protocol Part A explored the effect of the type of portion size estimation aid (PSEA) on the error associated with quantifying four portions of 15 single foods items contained in photographs. Seventeen dietetic students (1 male; age=24.7±9.1 years; BMI=21.1±1.9 kg/m2) estimated all food portions on two occasions: without aids and with aids (food models or reference food photographs). Overall, the use of a PSEA significantly reduced mean (±SD) group error between estimates compared to no aid (-2.5±11.5% vs. 19.0±28.8%; p<0.05). The type of PSEA (i.e. food models vs. reference food photograph) did not have a notable effect on the group estimation error (-6.7±14.9% vs. 1.4±5.9%, respectively; p=0.321). This exploratory study provided evidence that the use of aids in general, rather than the type, was more effective in reducing estimation error. Findings guided the development of the Dietary Estimation and Assessment Tool (DEAT) for use in the analysis of the Nutricam dietary record. Part B evaluated the effect of the DEAT on the error associated with the quantification of two 3-day Nutricam dietary records in a sample of 29 dietetic students (2 males; age=23.3±5.1 years; BMI=20.6±1.9 kg/m2). Subjects were randomised into two groups: Group A and Group B. For Record 1, the use of the DEAT (Group A) resulted in a smaller error compared to estimations made without the tool (Group B) (17.7±15.8%/day vs. 34.0±22.6%/day, p=0.331; respectively). In comparison, all subjects used the DEAT to estimate Record 2, with resultant error similar between Group A and B (21.2±19.2%/day vs. 25.8±13.6%/day; p=0.377 respectively). In general, the moderate estimation error associated with quantifying food items did not translate into clinically significant differences in the nutrient profile of the Nutricam dietary records, only amorphous foods were notably over-estimated in energy content without the use of the DEAT (57kJ/day vs. 274kJ/day; p<0.001). A large proportion (89.6%) of the group found the DEAT helpful when quantifying food items contained in the Nutricam dietary records. The use of the DEAT reduced quantification error, minimising any potential effect on the estimation of energy and macronutrient intake. Study 4: Evaluation of the NuDAM The accuracy and inter-rater reliability of the NuDAM to assess energy and macronutrient intake was evaluated in a sample of 10 adults (6 males; age=61.2±6.9 years; BMI=31.0±4.5 kg/m2). Intake recorded using both the NuDAM and a weighed food record (WFR) was coded by three dietitians and compared with an objective measure of total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained using the doubly labelled water technique. At the group level, energy intake (EI) was under-reported to a similar extent using both methods, with the ratio of EI:TEE was 0.76±0.20 for the NuDAM and 0.76±0.17 for the WFR. At the individual level, four subjects reported implausible levels of energy intake using the WFR method, compared to three using the NuDAM. Overall, moderate to high correlation coefficients (r=0.57-0.85) were found across energy and macronutrients except fat (r=0.24) between the two dietary measures. High agreement was observed between dietitians for estimates of energy and macronutrient derived for both the NuDAM (ICC=0.77-0.99; p<0.001) and WFR (ICC=0.82-0.99; p<0.001). All subjects preferred using the NuDAM over the WFR to record intake and were willing to use the novel method again over longer recording periods. This research program explored two novel approaches which utilised distinct technologies to aid in the nutritional management of adults with T2DM. In particular, this thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base surrounding the use of PhRs through the development, trial and evaluation of a novel mobile phone photo/voice dietary record. The NuDAM is an extremely promising advancement in the nutritional management of individuals with diabetes and other chronic conditions. Future applications lie in integrating the NuDAM with other technologies to facilitate practice across the remaining stages of the nutrition care process.

Sensitivity to the MEK inhibitor E6201 in melanoma cells is associated with mutant BRAF and wildtype PTEN status

BACKGROUND: Melanoma is the most lethal form of skin cancer, but recent advances in molecularly targeted agents against the Ras/Raf/MAPK pathway demonstrate promise as effective therapies. Despite these advances, resistance remains an issue, as illustrated recently by the clinical experience with vemurafenib. Such acquired resistance appears to be the result of parallel pathway activation, such as PI3K, to overcome single-agent inhibition. In this report, we describe the cytotoxicity and anti-tumour activity of the novel MEK inhibitor, E6201, in a broad panel of melanoma cell lines (n = 31) of known mutational profile in vitro and in vivo. We further test the effectiveness of combining E6201 with an inhibitor of PI3K (LY294002) in overcoming resistance in these cell lines. RESULTS: The majority of melanoma cell lines were either sensitive (IC50 < 500 nM, 24/31) or hypersensitive (IC50 < 100 nM, 18/31) to E6201. This sensitivity correlated with wildtype PTEN and mutant BRAF status, whereas mutant RAS and PI3K pathway activation were associated with resistance. Although MEK inhibitors predominantly exert a cytostatic effect, E6201 elicited a potent cytocidal effect on most of the sensitive lines studied, as evidenced by Annexin positivity and cell death ELISA. Conversely, E6201 did not induce cell death in the two resistant melanoma cell lines tested. E6201 inhibited xenograft tumour growth in all four melanoma cell lines studied to varying degrees, but a more pronounced anti-tumour effect was observed for cell lines that previously demonstrated a cytocidal response in vitro. In vitro combination studies of E6201 and LY294002 showed synergism in all six melanoma cell lines tested, as defined by a mean combination index < 1. CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that E6201 elicits a predominantly cytocidal effect in vitro and in vivo in melanoma cells of diverse mutational background. Resistance to E6201 was associated with disruption of PTEN and activation of downstream PI3K signalling. In keeping with these data we demonstrate that co-inhibition of MAPK and PI3K is effective in overcoming resistance inherent in melanoma.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale : psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.