Data mining on prices of highway project main material based on WEB

The management of main material prices of provincial highway project quota has problems of lag and blindness. Framework of provincial highway project quota data MIS and main material price data warehouse were established based on WEB firstly. Then concrete processes of provincial highway project main material prices were brought forward based on BP neural network algorithmic. After that standard BP algorithmic, additional momentum modify BP network algorithmic, self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic were compared in predicting highway project main prices. The result indicated that it is feasible to predict highway main material prices using BP NN, and using self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic is the relatively best one.

Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia

This paper estimates a simultaneous-equation model of wages and prices for Australia, underpinned by a competing claims framework of imperfect competition. Two separate co-integrating relationships for wages and prices are identified by imposing the economic hypotheses implied by the theory. The steady-state relationships for wages and prices are then embedded in a parsimonious, dynamic wage-price model. The final model is both simple and parsimonious and able to describe the process of wage and price inflation in Australia

Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Assessing the impact of floods and flood legislation on residential property prices

The changing development and population sprawl in major cities, especially those located in high rainfall areas, has resulted in the need to review and re-assess potential flood impacts in these cities. In many cases these new flood lines and flood maps have placed residential property that was previously considered to be flood free to now be considered to be potentially flood liable. Previous research based in Sydney and the UK has identified the fact that residential property that has been subject to flooding has a decreased price and higher investment risk than flood free property in the same location. These studies have also shown that the greatest impact on residential property subject to flooding is just following a flood event. In June 2009, Brisbane City Council released revised flood maps for the Greater Brisbane region and these maps have identified areas that have not previously been considered flood liable. This paper will analyse the sale performance of flood liable streets in the main flood areas of Brisbane over the period January 1990 through to June 2009, to determine the variation in price for these flood liable areas to the residential property immediately adjoining them. The average sale price will be tracked on both a geographic location and socio-economic basis.

Infrastructure charges and increases to new house prices : a preliminary analysis of the US empirical models

Sourcing appropriate funding for the provision of new urban infrastructure has been a policy dilemma for governments around the world for decades. This is particularly relevant in high growth areas where new services are required to support swelling populations. The Australian infrastructure funding policy dilemmas are reflective of similar matters in many countries, particularly the United States of America, where infrastructure cost recovery policies have been in place since the 1970’s. There is an extensive body of both theoretical and empirical literature from these countries that discusses the passing on (to home buyers) of these infrastructure charges, and the corresponding impact on housing prices. The theoretical evidence is consistent in its findings that infrastructure charges are passed on to home buyers by way of higher house prices. The empirical evidence is also consistent in its findings, with “overshifting” of these charges evident in all models since the 1980’s, i.e. $1 infrastructure charge results in greater than $1 increase in house prices. However, despite over a dozen separate studies over two decades in the US on this topic, no empirical works have been carried out in Australia to test if similar shifting or overshifting occurs here. The purpose of this research is to conduct a preliminary analysis of the more recent models used in these US empirical studies in order to identify the key study area selection criteria and success factors. The paper concludes that many of the study area selection criteria are implicit rather than explicit. By collecting data across the models, some implicit criteria become apparent, whilst others remain elusive. This data will inform future research on whether an existing model can be adopted or adapted for use in Australia.

Construction Prices : the Market Effect

Teachers of construction economics and estimating have for a long time recognised that there is more to construction pricing than detailed calculation of costs (to the contractor). We always get to the point where we have to say "of course, experience or familiarity of the market is very important and this needs judgement, intuition, etc". Quite how important is the matter in construction pricing is not known and we tend to trivialise its effect. If judgement of the market has a minimal effect, little harm would be done, but if it is really important then some quite serious consequences arise which go well beyond the teaching environment. Major areas of concern for the quantity surveyor are in cost modelling and cost planning - neither of which pay any significant attention to the market effect. There are currently two schools of thought about the market effect issue. The first school is prepared to ignore possible effects until more is known. This may be called the pragmatic school. The second school exists solely to criticise the first school. We will call this the antagonistic school. Neither the pragmatic nor the antagonistic schools seem to be particularly keen to resolve the issue one way or the other. The founder and leader of the antagonistic school is Brian Fine whose paper in 1974 is still the basic text on the subject, and in which he coined the term 'socially acceptable' price to describe what we now recognise as the market effect. Mr Fine's argument was then, and is since, that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' costing and cost estimating process is such that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' cost that it logically leads to a market-orientated pricing approach. Very little factual evidence, however, seems to be available to support these arguments in any conclusive manner. A further, and more important point for the pragmatic school, is that, even if the market effect is as important as Mr Fine believes, there are no indications of how it can be measured, evaluated or predicted. Since 1974 evidence has been accumulating which tends to reinforce the antagonists' view. A review of the literature covering both contractors' and designers' estimates found many references to the use of value judgements in construction pricing (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1985), which supports the antagonistic view in implying the existence of uncertainty overload. The most convincing evidence emerged quite by accident in some research we recently completed with practicing quantity surveyors in estimating accuracy (Skitmore, 1985). In addition to demonstrating that individual quantity surveyors and certain types of buildings had significant effect on estimating accuracy, one surprise result was that only a very small amount of information was used by the most expert surveyors for relatively very accurate estimates. Only the type and size of building, it seemed, was really relevant in determining accuracy. More detailed information about the buildings' specification, and even a sight to the drawings, did not significantly improve their accuracy level. This seemed to offer clear evidence that the constructional aspects of the project were largely irrelevant and that the expert surveyors were somehow tuning in to the market price of the building. The obvious next step is to feed our expert surveyors with more relevant 'market' information in order to assess its effect. The problem with this is that our experts do not seem able to verbalise their requirements in this respect - a common occurrence in research of this nature. The lack of research into the nature of market effects on prices also means the literature provides little of benefit. Hence the need for this study. It was felt that a clearer picture of the nature of construction markets would be obtained in an environment where free enterprise was a truly ideological force. For this reason, the United States of America was chosen for the next stage of our investigations. Several people were interviewed in an informal and unstructured manner to elicit their views on the action of market forces on construction prices. Although a small number of people were involved, they were thought to be reasonably representative of knowledge in construction pricing. They were also very well able to articulate their views. Our initial reaction to the interviews was that our USA subjects held very close views to those held in the UK. However, detailed analysis revealed the existence of remarkably clear and consistent insights that would not have been obtained in the UK. Further evidence was also obtained from literature relating to the subject and some of the interviewees very kindly expanded on their views in later postal correspondence. We have now analysed all the evidence received and, although a great deal is of an anecdotal nature, we feel that our findings enable at least the basic nature of the subject to be understood and that the factors and their interrelationships can now be examined more formally in relation to construction price levels. I must express my gratitude to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Educational Trust and the University of Salford's Department of Civil Engineering for collectively funding this study. My sincere thanks also go to our American participants who freely gave their time and valuable knowledge to us in our enquiries. Finally, I must record my thanks to Tim and Anne for their remarkable ability to produce an intelligible typescript from my unintelligible writing.

Paper, prices and politics : an evaluation of the Swedish support to the Bai Bang project in Vietnam : a Sida evaluation report

Sweden’s protest against the Vietnam War was given tangible form in 1969 through the decision to give economic aid to the Government of North Vietnam. The main outcome was an integrated pulp and paper mill in the Vinh Phu Province north-west of Hanoi. Known as Bai Bang after its location, the mill became the most costly, one of the longest lasting and the most controversial project in the history of Swedish development cooperation. In 1996 Bai Bang produced at its full capacity. Today the mill is exclusively managed and staffed by the Vietnamese and there are plans for future expansion. At the same time a substantial amount of money has been spent to reach these achievements. Looking back at the cumbersome history of the project the results are against many’s expectations. To learn more about the conditions for sustainable development Sida commissioned two studies of the Bai Bang project. Together they touch upon several important issues in development cooperation over a period of almost 30 years: the change of aid paradigms over time, the role of foreign policy in development cooperation, cultural obstacles, recipient responsibility versus donor led development etc. The two studies were commissioned by Sida’s Department for Evaluation and Internal Audit which is an independent department reporting directly to Sida’s Board of Directors. One study assesses the financial and economic viability of the pulp and paper mill and the broader development impact of the project in Vietnam. It has been carried out by the Centre for International Economics, an Australian private economic research agency. The other study analyses the decision-making processes that created and shaped the project over a period of two decades, and reflects on lessons from the project for development cooperation in general. This study has been carried out by the Chr. Michelsen Institute, a Norweigan independent research institution.

Smart grid-demand side response model to mitigate prices and peak impact on the electrical system

The aims of this project is to develop demand side response model which assists electricity consumers who are exposed to the market price through aggregator to manage the air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimise the energy cost caused by the air-conditioning load considering the electricity market price and network overload. The model is tested with selected characteristics of the room, Queensland electricity market data from Australian Energy Market Operator and data from the Bureau of Statistics on temperatures in Brisbane, during weekdays on hot days from 2011 - 2012.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Annual miles drive used car prices

This paper investigates whether the net benefits from owning a vehicle, proxied by annual miles driven, explain the price declines observed over a vehicle's life. We first model the household decision on how much to drive each of its vehicles. Then we empirically establish that variation in household annual miles across brands explains observed price declines. Furthermore, the effect of vehicle age on annual miles decisions (and consequently on market value) depends on household characteristics and the composition of the vehicle stock owned.

Measuring the preference for dwelling characteristics of Melbourne : railway stations and house prices

The relationship between public transportation and home values has proven to be complex, with studies providing divergent findings. Using Victorian Valuer General Data for 2009, this paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to the Melbourne metropolitan housing market in order to estimate the impacts of proximity to a train station on residential property prices. The findings reveal a negative impact on dwelling price for those properties within 125 metres from a train station and a positive relationship between dwelling price and proximity for properties more than 125 metres away.

Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among oil prices, clean energy stock prices, and technology stock prices, endogenously controlling for structural changes in the market. To this end, we apply Markov-switching vector autoregressive models to the economic system consisting of oil prices, clean energy and technology stock prices, and interest rates. The results indicate that there was a structural change in late 2007, a period in which there was a significant increase in the price of oil. In contrast to the previous studies, we find a positive relationship between oil prices and clean energy prices after structural breaks. There also appears to be a similarity in terms of the market response to both clean energy stock prices and technology stock prices. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.