Incorporating interdependence in risk likelihood analysis to enhance diagnostics in condition monitoring

This research is aimed at addressing problems in the field of asset management relating to risk analysis and decision making based on data from a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. It is apparent that determining risk likelihood in risk analysis is difficult, especially when historical information is unreliable. This relates to a problem in SCADA data analysis because of nested data. A further problem is in providing beneficial information from a SCADA system to a managerial level information system (e.g. Enterprise Resource Planning/ERP). A Hierarchical Model is developed to address the problems. The model is composed of three different Analyses: Hierarchical Analysis, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis, and Interdependence Analysis. The significant contributions from the model include: (a) a new risk analysis model, namely an Interdependence Risk Analysis Model which does not rely on the existence of historical information because it utilises Interdependence Relationships to determine the risk likelihood, (b) improvement of the SCADA data analysis problem by addressing the nested data problem through the Hierarchical Analysis, and (c) presentation of a framework to provide beneficial information from SCADA systems to ERP systems. The case study of a Water Treatment Plant is utilised for model validation.

Telemonitoring or Structured Telephone Support Programmes for Patients with Chronic Heart Failure: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective: To determine whether remote monitoring (structured telephone support or telemonitoring) without regular clinic or home visits improves outcomes for patients with chronic heart failure. Data sources: 15 electronic databases, hand searches of previous studies, and contact with authors and experts. Data extraction: Two investigators independently screened the results. Review methods: Published randomised controlled trials comparing remote monitoring programmes with usual care in patients with chronic heart failure managed within the community. Results: 14 randomised controlled trials (4264 patients) of remote monitoring met the inclusion criteria: four evaluated telemonitoring, nine evaluated structured telephone support, and one evaluated both. Remote monitoring programmes reduced the rates of admission to hospital for chronic heart failure by 21% (95% confidence interval 11% to 31%) and all cause mortality by 20% (8% to 31%); of the six trials evaluating health related quality of life three reported significant benefits with remote monitoring, and of the four studies examining healthcare costs with structured telephone support three reported reduced cost and one no effect. Conclusion: Programmes for chronic heart failure that include remote monitoring have a positive effect on clinical outcomes in community dwelling patients with chronic heart failure.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on muscle strength: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Summary This systematic review demonstrates that vitamin D supplementation does not have a significant effect on muscle strength in vitamin D replete adults. However, a limited number of studies demonstrate an increase in proximal muscle strength in adults with vitamin D deficiency. Introduction The purpose of this study is to systematically review the evidence on the effect of vitamin D supplementation on muscle strength in adults. Methods A comprehensive systematic database search was performed. Inclusion criteria included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving adult human participants. All forms and doses of vitamin D supplementation with or without calcium supplementation were included compared with placebo or standard care. Outcome measures included evaluation of strength. Outcomes were compared by calculating standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals. Results Of 52 identified studies, 17 RCTs involving 5,072 participants met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis showed no significant effect of vitamin D supplementation on grip strength (SMD −0.02, 95%CI −0.15,0.11) or proximal lower limb strength (SMD 0.1, 95%CI −0.01,0.22) in adults with 25(OH)D levels >25 nmol/L. Pooled data from two studies in vitamin D deficient participants (25(OH)D <25 nmol/L) demonstrated a large effect of vitamin D supplementation on hip muscle strength (SMD 3.52, 95%CI 2.18, 4.85). Conclusion Based on studies included in this systematic review, vitamin D supplementation does not have a significant effect on muscle strength in adults with baseline 25(OH)D >25 nmol/L. However, a limited number of studies demonstrate an increase in proximal muscle strength in adults with vitamin D deficiency. Keywords Muscle – Muscle fibre – Strength – Vitamin D

Cultural beliefs about societal change: A three-mode principal component analysis in China, Australia, and Japan

People’s beliefs about where society has come from and where it is going have personal and political consequences. Here, we conduct a detailed investigation of these beliefs through re-analyzing Kashima et al.’s (Study 2, n = 320) data from China, Australia, and Japan. Kashima et al. identified a “folk theory of social change” (FTSC) belief that people in society become more competent over time, but less warm and moral. Using three-mode principal components analysis, an under-utilized analytical method in psychology, we identified two additional narratives: Utopianism/Dystopianism (people becoming generally better or worse over time) and Expansion/Contraction (an increase/decrease in both positive and negative aspects of character over time). Countries differed in endorsement of these three narratives of societal change. Chinese endorsed the FTSC and Utopian narratives more than other countries, Japanese held Dystopian and Contraction beliefs more than other countries, and Australians’ narratives of societal change fell between Chinese and Japanese. Those who believed in greater economic/technological development held stronger FTSC and Expansion/Contraction narratives, but not Utopianism/Dystopianism. By identifying multiple cultural narratives about societal change, this research provides insights into how people across cultures perceive their social world and their visions of the future.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of exercise for those with cancer-related lymphedema

Objective: To evaluate the effects of exercise on cancer-related lymphedema and related symptoms, and to determine the need for those with lymphedema to wear compression during exercise. Data Sources: CINAHL, Cochrane, Ebscohost, MEDLINE, Pubmed, ProQuest Health and Medical Complete, ProQuest Nursing and Allied Health Source, Science Direct and SPORTDiscus databases were searched for trials published prior to 1 January, 2015. Study Selection: Randomised and non-randomised, controlled trials, and single group pre-post studies published in English-language were included. Twenty-one (exercise) and four (compression and exercise) studies met inclusion criteria. Data Extraction: Data was extracted into tabular format using predefined data fields by one reviewer and assessed for accuracy by a second reviewer. Study quality was evaluated using the Effective Public Health Practice Project assessment tool. Data Synthesis: Data was pooled using a random effects model to assess the effects of acute and long-term exercise on lymphedema and lymphedema-associated symptoms, with subgroup analyses for exercise mode and intervention length. There was no effect of exercise (acute or intervention) on lymphedema or associated symptoms with standardised mean differences from all analyses ranging between −0.2 and 0.1 (p-values ≥0.22). Findings from subgroup analyses for exercise mode (aerobic, resistance, mixed, other) and intervention duration (>12 weeks or ≤12 weeks) were consistent with these findings; that is, no effect on lymphedema or associated symptoms. There were too few studies evaluating the effect of compression during regular exercise to conduct a meta-analysis. Conclusions: Individuals with secondary lymphedema can safely participate in progressive, regular exercise without experiencing a worsening of lymphedema or related-symptoms. However, the results also do not suggest any improvements will occur in lymphedema. At present, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute the current clinical recommendation to wear compression garments during regular exercise.

Effect of exercise referral schemes in primary care on physical activity and improving health outcomes: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To assess the impact of exercise referral schemes on physical activity and health outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, and ongoing trial registries up to October 2009. We also checked study references. Study selection - Design: randomised controlled trials or non-randomised controlled (cluster or individual) studies published in peer review journals. - Population: sedentary individuals with or without medical diagnosis. - Exercise referral schemes defined as: clear referrals by primary care professionals to third party service providers to increase physical activity or exercise, physical activity or exercise programmes tailored to individuals, and initial assessment and monitoring throughout programmes. - Comparators: usual care, no intervention, or alternative exercise referral schemes. Results Eight randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, comparing exercise referral schemes with usual care (six trials), alternative physical activity intervention (two), and an exercise referral scheme plus a self determination theory intervention (one). Compared with usual care, follow-up data for exercise referral schemes showed an increased number of participants who achieved 90-150 minutes of physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week (pooled relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence intervals 1.03 to 1.30) and a reduced level of depression (pooled standardised mean difference −0.82, −1.28 to −0.35). Evidence of a between group difference in physical activity of moderate or vigorous intensity or in other health outcomes was inconsistent at follow-up. We did not find any difference in outcomes between exercise referral schemes and the other two comparator groups. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with specific medical diagnoses. Substantial heterogeneity in the quality and nature of the exercise referral schemes across studies might have contributed to the inconsistency in outcome findings. Conclusions Considerable uncertainty remains as to the effectiveness of exercise referral schemes for increasing physical activity, fitness, or health indicators, or whether they are an efficient use of resources for sedentary people with or without a medical diagnosis.

Republished research: Effect of exercise referral schemes in primary care on physical activity and improving health outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis

Study question Can exercise referral schemes improve health outcomes in individuals with or without pre-existing conditions? Summary answer We found weak evidence of a short term increase in physical activity and reduction in levels of depression in sedentary individuals after participation in exercise referral schemes, compared with after usual care. What is known and what this paper adds Exercise referral schemes are commonly used in primary care to promote physical activity. Evidence indicating a health benefit of these schemes is limited, so their value in primary care remains to be ascertained.

Characterizing the signal pattern of a four-cylinder diesel engine using acoustic emission and vibration analysis

Condition monitoring of diesel engines can prevent unpredicted engine failures and the associated consequence. This paper presents an experimental study of the signal characteristics of a 4-cylinder diesel engine under various loading conditions. Acoustic emission, vibration and in-cylinder pressure signals were employed to study the effectiveness of these techniques for condition monitoring and identifying symptoms of incipient failures. An event driven synchronous averaging technique was employed to average the quasi-periodic diesel engine signal in the time domain to eliminate or minimize the effect of engine speed and amplitude variations on the analysis of condition monitoring signal. It was shown that acoustic emission (AE) is a better technique than vibration method for condition monitor of diesel engines due to its ability to produce high quality signals (i.e., excellent signal to noise ratio) in a noisy diesel engine environment. It was found that the peak amplitude of AE RMS signals correlating to the impact-like combustion related events decreases in general due to a more stable mechanical process of the engine as the loading increases. A small shift in the exhaust valve closing time was observed as the engine load increases which indicates a prolong combustion process in the cylinder (to produce more power). On the contrary, peak amplitudes of the AE RMS attributing to fuel injection increase as the loading increases. This can be explained by the increase fuel friction caused by the increase volume flow rate during the injection. Multiple AE pulses during the combustion process were identified in the study, which were generated by the piston rocking motion and the interaction between the piston and the cylinder wall. The piston rocking motion is caused by the non-uniform pressure distribution acting on the piston head as a result of the non-linear combustion process of the engine. The rocking motion ceased when the pressure in the cylinder chamber stabilized.