Too young to drink but old enough to drive under the influence : a study of underage offenders as seen in substance abuse treatment in Texas

Driving under the influence (DUI) is a major road safety problem. Historically, alcohol has been assumed to play a larger role in crashes and DUI education programs have reflected this assumption, although recent evidence suggests that younger drivers are becoming more likely to drive drugged than to drive drunk. This is a study of 7096 Texas clients under age 21 who were admitted to state-funded treatment programs between 1997 and 2007 with a past-year DUI arrest, DUI probation, or DUI referral. Data were obtained from the State’s administrative dataset. Multivariate logistic regressions models were used to understand the differences between those minors entering treatment as a DUI as compared to a non-DUI as well as the risks for completing treatment and for being abstinent in the month prior to follow-up. A major finding was that over time, the primary problem for underage DUI drivers changed from alcohol to marijuana. Being abstinent in the month prior to discharge, having a primary problem with alcohol rather than another drug, and having more family involved were the strongest predictors of treatment completion. Living in a household where the client was exposed to alcohol abuse or drug use, having been in residential treatment, and having more drug and alcohol and family problems were the strongest predictors of not being abstinent at follow-up. As a result, there is a need to direct more attention towards meeting the needs of the young DUI population through programs that address drug as well as alcohol consumption problems.

Negative Mood Regulation (NMR) expectancies, mood, and affect intensity among clients in substance disorder treatment facilities

Negative mood regulation (NMR) expectancies, stress, anxiety, depression and affect intensity were examined by means of self-report questionnaires in 158 volunteers, including 99 clients enrolled in addiction treatment programs. As expected, addicts reported significantly higher levels of stress, anxiety, depression and affect intensity and lower levels of NMR compared to non-addict controls. NMR was negatively correlated with stress, anxiety, depression and affect intensity. The findings indicate that mood self-regulation is impaired in addicts. Low NMR and high affect intensity may predispose to substance abuse and addiction, or alternatively may reflect chronic drug-induced affective dysregulation.

Attachment, fear of intimacy and differentiation of self among clients in substance disorder treatment facilities

Attachment, fear of intimacy and differentiation of self were examined by means of self-report questionnaires in 158 volunteers, including 99 clients enrolled in addiction treatment programs. As expected, clients (who were undergoing treatment for alcoholism, heroin addiction, amphetamine/cocaine addiction or cannabis abuse) reported higher levels of insecure attachment and fear of intimacy, and lower levels of secure attachment and differentiation of self, compared to controls. Insecure attachment, high fear of intimacy and low self-differentiation appear to characterize clients enrolled in addiction treatment programs. Such characteristics may reflect a predisposition to substance problems, an effect of chronic substance problems, or conceivably both.

Prevalence and predictors of refractive error in a genetically isolated population : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence and associations of refractive error on Norfolk Island. DESIGN: Population-based study on Norfolk Island, South Pacific. PARTICIPANTS: All permanent residents on Norfolk Island aged ≥ 15 years were invited to participate. METHODS: Patients underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction, slit-lamp biomicroscope examination and biometry assessment. Only phakic eyes were analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and multivariate associations of refractive error and myopia. RESULTS: There were 677 people (645 right phakic eyes, 648 left phakic eyes) aged ≥ 15 years were included in this study. Mean age of participants was 51.1 (standard deviation 15.7; range 15-81). Three hundred and seventy-six people (55.5%) were female. Adjusted to the 2006 Norfolk Island population, prevalence estimates of refractive error were as follows: myopia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ -1.0 D) 10.1%, hypermetropia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ 1.0 D) 36.6%, and astigmatism 17.7%. Significant independent predictors of myopia in the multivariate model were lower age (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001), shallower anterior chamber depth (P = 0.031) and increased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). Significant independent predictors of refractive error were increasing age (P < 0.001), male gender (P = 0.009), Pitcairn ancestry (P = 0.041), cataract (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001) and decreased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of myopia on Norfolk Island is lower than on mainland Australia, and the Norfolk Island population demonstrates ethnic differences in the prevalence estimates. Given the significant associations between refractive error and several ocular biometry characteristics, Norfolk Island may be a useful population in which to find the genetic basis of refractive error.

Identification and elimination of a matrix-induced systematic error in LA–ICP–MS 206Pb/238U dating of zircon

Black et al. (2004) identified a systematic difference between LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measurements of 206Pb/238U in zircons, which they correlated with the incompatible trace element content of the zircon. We show that the offset between the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U correlates more strongly with the total radiogenic Pb than with any incompatible trace element. This suggests that the cause of the 206Pb/238U offset is related to differences in the radiation damage (alpha dose) between the reference and unknowns. We test this hypothesis in two ways. First, we show that there is a strong correlation between the difference in the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U and the difference in the alpha dose received by unknown and reference zircons. The LA–ICP–MS ages for the zircons we have dated can be as much as 5.1% younger than their TIMS age to 2.1% older, depending on whether the unknown or reference received the higher alpha dose. Second, we show that by annealing both reference and unknown zircons at 850 °C for 48 h in air we can eliminate the alpha-dose-induced differences in measured 206Pb/238U. This was achieved by analyzing six reference zircons a minimum of 16 times in two round robin experiments: the first consisting of unannealed zircons and the second of annealed grains. The maximum offset between the LA–ICP–MS and TIMS measured 206Pb/238U for the unannealed zircons was 2.3%, which reduced to 0.5% for the annealed grains, as predicted by within-session precision based on counting statistics. Annealing unknown zircons and references to the same state prior to analysis holds the promise of reducing the 3% external error for the measurement of 206Pb/238U of zircon by LA–ICP–MS, indicated by Klötzli et al. (2009), to better than 1%, but more analyses of annealed zircons by other laboratories are required to evaluate the true potential of the annealing method.

Metacognition in substance misuse

Metacognitive theory provides a novel conceptual framework to understand the development and maintenance of psychopathology. It emphasizes the importance of stored knowledge guiding the individual’s plan for coping with heightened cognitive-affective arousal. According to the metacognitive model individuals experience strong affective responses and engage in a process of metacognitive appraisal and initiation of coping responses in the pursuit of cognitive-affective self-regulation. This chapter outlines the details of this theoretical approach as applied to substance misuse and the metacognitive treatment components aimed at interrupting the selection of maladaptive coping responses.

Obvious error in approach to default costs assessment

The decision of Henry J in Ginn & Anor v Ginn; ex parte Absolute Law Lawyers & Attorneys [2015] QSC 49 provides clarification of the approach to be taken on a default costs assessment under r708 of the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules 1999

Attachment in relation to affect regulation and interpersonal functioning among substance use disorder inpatients

Attachment theory has been conceptualised as an affect regulation theory, proposing that attachment is associated with the expression and recognition of emotions as well as interpersonal functioning. Previous research has reported affect regulation difficulties in substance use disorders and addiction has been considered an attachment disorder. However, scarce empirical research exists on the relationship of attachment in relation to affect regulation and interpersonal functioning in those with substance use problems. Thus, the objective of the present study was to investigate potential associations between attachment, negative mood regulation (NMR) expectancies, fear of intimacy and self-differentiation in substance abusers. The revised adult attachment scale (RAAS), the NMR expectancies scale, the fear of intimacy scale and the differentiation of self inventory were administered to a sample of 100 substance use disorder inpatients. Attachment accounted for significant variance in NMR expectancies and was also a strong predictor of fear of intimacy. The predictive utility of attachment also extended to self-differentiation, suggesting that attachment was strongly related to overall self-differentiation score, Emotional reactivity, Emotional cut-off and I position. These findings support attachment theory suggesting that attachment is associated with and predicts affect regulation abilities and difficulties in interpersonal functioning in a sample of substance use disorder inpatients. The inclusion and assessment of attachment appears to be important in the development of treatment programmes for substance abusing individuals.

Changes in cannabis use among psychotic clients without specialised substance use treatment

The need to address substance use among people with psychosis has been well established. However, treatment studies targeting substance use in this population have reported mixed results. Substance users with psychosis in no or minimal treatment control groups achieve similar reductions in substance use compared to those in more active substance use treatment, suggesting a role for natural recovery from substance use. This meta-analysis aims to quantify the amount of natural recovery from substance use within control groups of treatment studies containing samples of psychotic substance users, with a particular focus on changes in cannabis use. A systematic search was conducted to identify substance use treatment studies. Meta-analyses were performed to quantify reductions in the frequency of substance use in the past 30 days. Significant but modest reductions (mean reduction of 0.3–0.4 SD across the time points) in the frequency of substance use were found at 6 to 24 months follow up. The current study is the first to quantify changes in substance use in samples enrolled in no treatment or minimal treatment control conditions. These findings highlight the potential role of natural recovery from substance use among individuals with psychosis, although they do not rule out effects of regression to the mean. Additionally, the results provide a baseline from which to estimate likely changes or needed effects sizes in intervention studies. Future research is required to identify the processes underpinning these changes, in order to identify strategies that may better support self-management of substance use in people with psychosis.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Cost effectiveness of antimicrobial catheters in the intensive care unit : Addressing uncertainty in the decision

Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.

Sources of coding discrepancies in injury morbidity data: Implications for injury surveillance

Objective: To examine the sources of coding discrepancy for injury morbidity data and explore the implications of these sources for injury surveillance.-------- Method: An on-site medical record review and recoding study was conducted for 4373 injury-related hospital admissions across Australia. Codes from the original dataset were compared to the recoded data to explore the reliability of coded data aand sources of discrepancy.---------- Results: The most common reason for differences in coding overall was assigning the case to a different external cause category with 8.5% assigned to a different category. Differences in the specificity of codes assigned within a category accounted for 7.8% of coder difference. Differences in intent assignment accounted for 3.7% of the differences in code assignment.---------- Conclusions: In the situation where 8 percent of cases are misclassified by major category, the setting of injury targets on the basis of extent of burden is a somewhat blunt instrument Monitoring the effect of prevention programs aimed at reducing risk factors is not possible in datasets with this level of misclassification error in injury cause subcategories. Future research is needed to build the evidence base around the quality and utility of the ICD classification system and application of use of this for injury surveillance in the hospital environment.

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Queer/error : gay media systems and processes of abjection

Gay community media functions as a system with three nodes, in which the flows of information and capital theoretically benefit all parties: the gay community gains a sense of cohesion and citizenship through media; the gay media outlets profit from advertisers’ capital; and advertisers recoup their investments in lucrative ‘pink dollar’ revenue. But if a necessary corollary of all communication systems is error or noise, where—and what—are the errors in this system? In this paper we argue that the ‘error’ in the gay media system is Queerness, and that the gay media system ejects (in a process of Kristevan abjection) these Queer identities in order to function successfully. We examine the ways in which Queer identities are excluded from representation in such media through a discourse and content analysis of The Sydney Star Observer (Australia’s largest gay and lesbian paper). First, we analyse the way Queer bodies are excluded from the discourses that construct and reinforce both the ideal gay male body and the notions of homosexual essence required for that body to be meaningful. We then argue that abject Queerness returns in the SSO’s discourses of public health through the conspicuous absence of the AIDS-inflicted body (which we read as the epitome of the abject Queer), since this absence paradoxically conjures up a trace of that which the system tries to expel. We conclude by arguing that because the ‘Queer error’ is integral to the SSO, gay community media should practise a politics of Queer inclusion rather than exclusion.

Fast rates for estimation error and oracle inequalities for model section

We consider complexity penalization methods for model selection. These methods aim to choose a model to optimally trade off estimation and approximation errors by minimizing the sum of an empirical risk term and a complexity penalty. It is well known that if we use a bound on the maximal deviation between empirical and true risks as a complexity penalty, then the risk of our choice is no more than the approximation error plus twice the complexity penalty. There are many cases, however, where complexity penalties like this give loose upper bounds on the estimation error. In particular, if we choose a function from a suitably simple convex function class with a strictly convex loss function, then the estimation error (the difference between the risk of the empirical risk minimizer and the minimal risk in the class) approaches zero at a faster rate than the maximal deviation between empirical and true risks. In this paper, we address the question of whether it is possible to design a complexity penalized model selection method for these situations. We show that, provided the sequence of models is ordered by inclusion, in these cases we can use tight upper bounds on estimation error as a complexity penalty. Surprisingly, this is the case even in situations when the difference between the empirical risk and true risk (and indeed the error of any estimate of the approximation error) decreases much more slowly than the complexity penalty. We give an oracle inequality showing that the resulting model selection method chooses a function with risk no more than the approximation error plus a constant times the complexity penalty.