Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Task clustering on ETL systems – A pattern-oriented approach

Usually, data warehousing populating processes are data-oriented workflows composed by dozens of granular tasks that are responsible for the integration of data coming from different data sources. Specific subset of these tasks can be grouped on a collection together with their relationships in order to form higher- level constructs. Increasing task granularity allows for the generalization of processes, simplifying their views and providing methods to carry out expertise to new applications. Well-proven practices can be used to describe general solutions that use basic skeletons configured and instantiated according to a set of specific integration requirements. Patterns can be applied to ETL processes aiming to simplify not only a possible conceptual representation but also to reduce the gap that often exists between two design perspectives. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of an ETL pattern-based approach using task clustering, analyzing a real world ETL scenario through the definitions of two commonly used clusters of tasks: a data lookup cluster and a data conciliation and integration cluster.

Use of a polyphasic approach including MALDI-TOF MS for identification of Aspergillus section Flavi strains isolated from food commodities in Brazil

Brazil is one the largest producers and exporters of food commodities in the world. The evaluation of fungi capable of spoilage and the production mycotoxins in these commodities is an important issue that can be of help in bioeconomic development. The present work aimed to identify fungi of the genus Aspergillus section Flavi isolated from different food commodities in Brazil. Thirty-five fungal isolates belonging to the section Flavi were identified and characterised. Different classic phenotypic and genotypic methodologies were used, as well as a novel approach based on proteomic profiles produced by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Type or reference strains for each taxonomic group were included in this study. Three isolates that presented discordant identification patterns were further analysed using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region and calmodulin gene sequences. The data obtained from the phenotypic and spectral analyses divide the isolates into three groups, corresponding to taxa closely related to Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus parasiticus, and Aspergillus tamarii. Final polyphasic fungal identification was achieved by joining data from molecular analyses, classical morphology, and biochemical and proteomic profiles generated by MALDI-TOF MS.

A soft computing approach to kidney diseases evaluation

Kidney renal failure means that one’s kidney have unexpectedly stopped functioning, i.e., once chronic disease is exposed, the presence or degree of kidney dysfunction and its progression must be assessed, and the underlying syndrome has to be diagnosed. Although the patient’s history and physical examination may denote good practice, some key information has to be obtained from valuation of the glomerular filtration rate, and the analysis of serum biomarkers. Indeed, chronic kidney sickness depicts anomalous kidney function and/or its makeup, i.e., there is evidence that treatment may avoid or delay its progression, either by reducing and prevent the development of some associated complications, namely hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular complications. Acute kidney injury appears abruptly, with a rapid deterioration of the renal function, but is often reversible if it is recognized early and treated promptly. In both situations, i.e., acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease, an early intervention can significantly improve the prognosis.The assessment of these pathologies is therefore mandatory, although it is hard to do it with traditional methodologies and existing tools for problem solving. Hence, in this work, we will focus on the development of a hybrid decision support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures based on Logic Programming, that will allow one to consider incomplete, unknown, and even contradictory information, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks, in order to weigh the Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such a happening. The present study involved 558 patients with an age average of 51.7 years and the chronic kidney disease was observed in 175 cases. The dataset comprise twenty four variables, grouped into five main categories. The proposed model showed a good performance in the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease, since the sensitivity and the specificity exhibited values range between 93.1 and 94.9 and 91.9–94.2 %, respectively.

Estudo da cabeceira da Sé do Porto

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

O livro na revista: como revistas semanais brasileiras e portuguesas abordam livros e literatura

Dissertação de mestrado em Comunicação, Arte e Cultura

Os mass media como agentes educadores para a saúde

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Informação e Jornalismo)

Organization of construction activity in medieval Portugal: a comparative approach

This paper aims to identify and characterize the organizational models of construction site and building activity in late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, through the analysis of specific Portuguese case studies, related with important buildings financed by the royal power. This paper also intends to develop a comparative analysis between those different organizational models, identifying the main features of each one, as well as their similarities and differences. In this sense, we intend to present a comparative analysis between the two main models of organization of the construction site, through a methodology of crossing different types of sources, including written ones, such as books of accounts, but also iconographic and material sources, as well as the buildings and monuments still preserved today. In terms of written sources, the construction site accounting books allow us to study several specific aspects of the construction process, but also allow us to infer the organizational models of the construction activity.

Vermiculite bio-barriers for Cu and Zn remediation: an eco-friendly approach for freshwater and sediments protection

The increase in heavy metal contamination in freshwater systems causes serious environmental problems in most industrialized countries, and the effort to find ecofriendly techniques for reducing water and sediment contamination is fundamental for environmental protection. Permeable barriers made of natural clays can be used as low-cost and eco-friendly materials for adsorbing heavy metals from water solution and thus reducing the sediment contamination. This study discusses the application of permeable barriers made of vermiculite clay for heavy metals remediation at the interface between water and sediments and investigates the possibility to increase their efficiency by loading the vermiculite surface with a microbial biofilm of Pseudomonas putida, which is well known to be a heavy metal accumulator. Some batch assays were performed to verify the uptake capacity of two systems and their adsorption kinetics, and the results indicated that the vermiculite bio-barrier system had a higher removal capacity than the vermiculite barrier (?34.4 and 22.8 % for Cu and Zn, respectively). Moreover, the presence of P. putida biofilm strongly contributed to fasten the kinetics of metals adsorption onto vermiculite sheets. In open-system conditions, the presence of a vermiculite barrier at the interface between water and sediment could reduce the sediment contamination up to 20 and 23 % for Cu and Zn, respectively, highlighting the efficiency of these eco-friendly materials for environmental applications. Nevertheless, the contribution of microbial biofilm in open-system setup should be optimized, and some important considerations about biofilm attachment in a continuous-flow system have been discussed.