Spatial-temporal modellization of the NO2 concentration data through geostatistical tools

The nitrogen dioxide is a primary pollutant, regarded for the estimation of the air quality index, whose excessive presence may cause significant environmental and health problems. In the current work, we suggest characterizing the evolution of NO2 levels, by using geostatisti- cal approaches that deal with both the space and time coordinates. To develop our proposal, a first exploratory analysis was carried out on daily values of the target variable, daily measured in Portugal from 2004 to 2012, which led to identify three influential covariates (type of site, environment and month of measurement). In a second step, appropriate geostatistical tools were applied to model the trend and the space-time variability, thus enabling us to use the kriging techniques for prediction, without requiring data from a dense monitoring network. This method- ology has valuable applications, as it can provide accurate assessment of the nitrogen dioxide concentrations at sites where either data have been lost or there is no monitoring station nearby.

Historical analysis of the Brazilian cervical cancer screening program from 2006 to 2013: a time for reflection

BACKGROUND: The Cervical Cancer Database of the Brazilian National Health Service (SISCOLO) contains information regarding all cervical cytological tests and, if properly explored, can be used as a tool for monitoring and managing the cervical cancer screening program. The aim of this study was to perform a historical analysis of the cervical cancer screening program in Brazil from 2006 to 2013. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data necessary to calculate quality indicators were obtained from the SISCOLO, a Brazilian health system tool. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change. RESULTS: We observed important trends showing decreased rates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and an increased rate of rejected exams from 2009 to 2013. The index of positivity was maintained at levels below those indicated by international standards; very low frequencies of unsatisfactory cases were observed over the study period, which partially contradicts the low rate of positive cases. The number of positive cytological diagnoses was below that expected, considering that developed countries with low frequencies of cervical cancer detect more lesions annually. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of indicators from 2006 to 2013 suggests that actions must be taken to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control in Brazil.

Seismic vulnerability of existing masonry buildings: Nonlinear parametric analysis

Existing masonry structures are usually associated to a high seismic vulnerability, mainly due to the properties of the materials, weak connections between floors and load-bearing walls, high mass of the masonry walls and flexibility of the floors. For these reasons, the seismic performance of existing masonry structures has received much attention in the last decades. This study presents the parametric analysis taking into account the deviations on features of the gaioleiro buildings - Portuguese building typology. The main objective of the parametric analysis is to compare the seismic performance of the structure as a function of the variations of its properties with respect to the response of a reference model. The parametric analysis was carried out for two types of structural analysis, namely for the non-linear dynamic analysis with time integration and for the pushover analysis with distribution of forces proportional to the inertial forces of the structure. The Young's modulus of the masonry walls, Young's modulus of the timber floors, the compressive and tensile non-linear properties (strength and fracture energy) were the properties considered in both type of analysis. Additionally, in the dynamic analysis, the influences of the vis-cous damping and of the vertical component of the earthquake were evaluated. A pushover analysis proportional to the modal displacement of the first mode in each direction was also carried out. The results shows that the Young's modulus of the masonry walls, the Young's modulus of the timber floors and the compressive non-linear properties are the pa-rameters that most influence the seismic performance of this type of tall and weak existing masonry structures. Furthermore, it is concluded that that the stiffness of the floors influences significantly the strength capacity and the collapse mecha-nism of the numerical model. Thus, a study on the strengthening of the floors was also carried out. The increase of the thickness of the timber floors was the strengthening technique that presented the best seismic performance, in which the reduction of the out-of-plane displacements of the masonry walls is highlighted.

Masonry macro-block analysis

The structural analysis involves the definition of the model and selection of the analysis type. The model should represent the stiffness, the mass and the loads of the structure. The structures can be represented using simplified models, such as the lumped mass models, and advanced models resorting the Finite Element Method (FEM) and Discrete Element Method (DEM). Depending on the characteristics of the structure, different types of analysis can be used such as limit analysis, linear and non-linear static analysis and linear and non-linear dynamic analysis. Unreinforced masonry structures present low tensile strength and the linear analyses seem to not be adequate for assessing their structural behaviour. On the other hand, the static and dynamic non-linear analyses are complex, since they involve large time computational requirements and advanced knowledge of the practitioner. The non-linear analysis requires advanced knowledge on the material properties, analysis tools and interpretation of results. The limit analysis with macro-blocks can be assumed as a more practical method in the estimation of maximum load capacity of structure. Furthermore, the limit analysis require a reduced number of parameters, which is an advantage for the assessment of ancient and historical masonry structures, due to the difficult in obtaining reliable data.

Tunnel engineering – influence of the type and the quantity of measurements in the back analysis of geomechanical parameters

The monitoring data collected during tunnel excavation can be used in inverse analysis procedures in order to identify more realistic geomechanical parameters that can increase the knowledge about the interested formations. These more realistic parameters can be used in real time to adapt the project to the real structure in situ behaviour. However, monitoring plans are normally designed for safety assessment and not especially for the purpose of inverse analysis. In fact, there is a lack of knowledge about what types and quantity of measurements are needed to succeed in identifying the parameters of interest. Also, the optimisation algorithm chosen for the identification procedure may be important for this matter. In this work, this problem is addressed using a theoretical case with which a thorough parametric study was carried out using two optimisation algorithms based on different calculation paradigms, namely a conventional gradient-based algorithm and an evolution strategy algorithm. Calculations were carried for different sets of parameters to identify several combinations of types and amount of monitoring data. The results clearly show the high importance of the available monitoring data and the chosen algorithm for the success rate of the inverse analysis process.

Methodology for real-time adaptation of tunnels support using the observational method

The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the “Bois de Peu” tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

Temporal analysis of CHAVE collection

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 9309

Improving buildings energy performance: comparison between simple payback period and life cycle costs analysis

The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

The influence of kaolin application on key metabolic pathways associated with grape berry quality: a molecular and biochemical analysis

Dissertação de mestrado em Biologia Molecular, Biotecnologia e Bioempreendedorismo em Plantas

Longitudinal analysis of tumor marker CEA of breast cancer patients from Braga's hospital

Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.

Integration methods in dynamic analysis

"Series title: Springerbriefs in applied sciences and technology, ISSN 2191-530X"

Media(ted) discourse and society: rethinking the framework of critical discourse analysis

The analysis of journalistic discourse and its social embeddedness has known significant advances in the last two decades, especially due to the emergence and development of Critical Discourse Analysis. However, three important aspects remain under-researched: the time plane in discourse analysis, the discursive strategies of social actors, and the extra- and supra-textual effects of mediated discourse. Firstly, understanding the biography of public matters requires a longitudinal examination of mediated texts and their social contexts but most forms of analysis of journalistic discourse do not account for the time sequence of texts and its implications. Secondly, as the media representation of social issues is, to a large extent, a function of the discursive construction of events, problems and positions by social actors, the discursive strategies that they employ in a variety of arenas and channels ‘‘before’’ and ‘‘after’’ journalistic texts need to be examined. Thirdly, the fact that many of the modes of operation of discourse are extra- or supra-textual calls for a consideration of various social processes ‘‘outside’’ the text. This paper aims to produce a theoretical and methodological contribution to the integration of these issues in discourse analysis by proposing a framework that combines a textual dimension with a contextual one