15 resultados para probabilistic ranking

em Universidade do Minho


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The assessment of existing timber structures is often limited to information obtained from non or semi destructive testing, as mechanical testing is in many cases not possible due to its destructive nature. Therefore, the available data provides only an indirect measurement of the reference mechanical properties of timber elements, often obtained through empirical based correlations. Moreover, the data must result from the combination of different tests, as to provide a reliable source of information for a structural analysis. Even if general guidelines are available for each typology of testing, there is still a need for a global methodology allowing to combine information from different sources and infer upon that information in a decision process. In this scope, the present work presents the implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements. This methodology combines information gathered in different scales and follows a probabilistic framework allowing for the structural assessment of existing timber elements with possibility of inference and updating of its mechanical properties, through Bayesian methods. The probabilistic based framework is based in four main steps: (i) scale of information; (ii) measurement data; (iii) probability assignment; and (iv) structural analysis. In this work, the proposed methodology is implemented in a case study. Data was obtained through a multi-scale experimental campaign made to old chestnut timber beams accounting correlations of non and semi-destructive tests with mechanical properties. Finally, different inference scenarios are discussed aiming at the characterization of the safety level of the elements.

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A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

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Nowadays, considering the high variety of construction products, adequate material selection, based on their properties and function, becomes increasingly important. In this research, a ranking procedure developed by Czarnecki and Lukowski is applied in mortars with incorporation of phase change materials (PCM). The ranking procedure transforms experimental results of properties into one numerical value. The products can be classified according to their individual properties or even an optimized combination of different properties. The main purpose of this study was the ranking of mortars with incorporation of different contents of PCM based in different binders. Aerial lime, hydraulic lime, gypsum and cement were the binders studied. For each binder, three different mortars were developed. Reference mortars, mortars with incorporation of 40% of PCM and mortars with incorporation of 40% of PCM and 1% of fibers, were tested. Results show that the incorporation of PCM in mortars changes their global performance.

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In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

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This review tackles the issues related to disease burden caused by cervical cancer (CC) and its precursor (CIN) lesions in Brazil. A special focus is given to new technologies with potential to interfere with the development of CC by reducing the high-risk human papillomavirus (hr-HPV)-induced lesions that remain a major public health burden in all developing countries where organized screening programs do not exist. Globally, 85 % of all incident CC and 50 % of CC deaths occur in the developing countries. Unfortunately, most regions of Brazil still demonstrate high mortality rates, ranking CC as the second most common cancer among Brazilian women. Recently, CC screening programs have been tailored in the country to enable early detection of CC precursor lesions and thereby reduce cancer mortality. A combination of HPV testing with liquid-based cytology (LBC) seems to be a promising new approach in CC screening, with high expectation to offer an adequate control of CC burden in this country.

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

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Dissertação de mestrado Internacional em Sustentabilidade do Ambiente Construído

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

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In the trend towards tolerating hardware unreliability, accuracy is exchanged for cost savings. Running on less reliable machines, functionally correct code becomes risky and one needs to know how risk propagates so as to mitigate it. Risk estimation, however, seems to live outside the average programmer’s technical competence and core practice. In this paper we propose that program design by source-to-source transformation be risk-aware in the sense of making probabilistic faults visible and supporting equational reasoning on the probabilistic behaviour of programs caused by faults. This reasoning is carried out in a linear algebra extension to the standard, `a la Bird-Moor algebra of programming. This paper studies, in particular, the propagation of faults across standard program transformation techniques known as tupling and fusion, enabling the fault of the whole to be expressed in terms of the faults of its parts.

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Software reconfigurability became increasingly relevant to the architectural process due to the crescent dependency of modern societies on reliable and adaptable systems. Such systems are supposed to adapt themselves to surrounding environmental changes with minimal service disruption, if any. This paper introduces an engine that statically applies reconfigurations to (formal) models of software architectures. Reconfigurations are specified using a domain specific language— ReCooPLa—which targets the manipulation of software coordinationstructures,typicallyusedinservice-orientedarchitectures(soa).Theengine is responsible for the compilation of ReCooPLa instances and their application to the relevant coordination structures. The resulting configurations are amenable to formal analysis of qualitative and quantitative (probabilistic) properties.

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Constructivist approaches to journalism, which have dominated the field for most of the second half of the 20th century, underline how selection and ranking processes produce representations and interpretations of social reality. Theoretical perspectives such as agenda-setting or framing have been pointing to the ways production of news messages are shaped and issues are defined. Research inspired by these contributions does however seem to keep in an area of relative shade not so much what is said and published but what is not selected: the unsaid, the withheld, the untold of journalism. The reality that remains in silence, for not being noticed or for being silenced, is the reverse of the coin of what is made visible. In this paper, it is suggested that this situation opens up the debate to a relatively unknown continent, which could contribute to the larger discussion on the current crisis in journalism. It is our contention that ‘the untold’ might be at the confluence of different levels: the journalistic agenda-setting by news sources; the deterioration of working conditions of journalists, compromising the investigation; and the social capital asymmetries from important segments of the population, hampering the public word (speech?) and the right to communicate. In order to build a comprehensive picture of the potentialities and contradictions of journalism from the unsaid side, we would put forward the outline of a typology of journalism's silences, with particular emphasis on some aspects of "discursive discrimination" (Boréus, 2006), on the one hand, and on citizen silence in the process of journalistic production, on the other hand.

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

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First published online: December 16, 2014.