28 resultados para life prediction

em Universidade do Minho


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Electric Vehicles (EVs) have limited energy storage capacity and the maximum autonomy range is strongly dependent of the driver's behaviour. Due to the fact of that batteries cannot be recharged quickly during a journey, it is essential that a precise range prediction is available to the driver of the EV. With this information, it is possible to check if the desirable destination is achievable without a stop to charge the batteries, or even, if to reach the destination it is necessary to perform an optimized driving (e.g., cutting the air-conditioning, among others EV parameters). The outcome of this research work is the development of an Electric Vehicle Assistant (EVA). This is an application for mobile devices that will help users to take efficient decisions about route planning, charging management and energy efficiency. Therefore, it will contribute to foster EVs adoption as a new paradigm in the transportation sector.

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This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

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Discussing urban planning requires rethinking sustainability in cities and building healthy environments. Historically, some aspects of advancing the urban way of life have not been considered important in city planning. This is particularly the case where technological advances have led to conflicting land use, as with the installation of power poles and building electrical substations near residential areas. This research aims to discuss and rethink sustainability in cities, focusing on the environmental impact of low-frequency noise and electromagnetic radiation on human health. It presents data from a case study in an urban space in northern Portugal, and focuses on four guiding questions: Can power poles and power lines cause noise? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort due to noise? Can power poles and power lines affect human health? To answer these questions, we undertook research between 2014 and 2015 that was comprised of two approaches. The first approach consisted of evaluating the noise of nine points divided into two groups â near the sourceâ (e.g., up to 50 m from power poles) and â away from the sourceâ (e.g., more than 250 m away from the source). In the second approach, noise levels were measured for 72 h in houses located up to 20 m from the source. The groups consist of residents living within the distance range specified for each group. The measurement values were compared with the proposed criteria for assessing low-frequency noise using the DEFRA Guidance (University of Salford). In the first approach, the noise caused discomfort, regardless of the group. In the second approach, the noise had fluctuating characteristics, which led us to conclude that the noise caused discomfort.

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Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

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Nowadays, the concrete production sector is challenged by attempts to minimize the usage of raw materials and energy consumption, as well as by environmental concerns. Therefore, it is necessary to choose better options, e.g. new technologies or materials with improved life-cycle performance. One solution for using resources in an efficient manner is to close the materials' loop through the recycling of materials that result either from the end-of-life of products or from being the by-product of an industrial process. It is well known that the production of Portland cement, one of the materials most used in the construction sector, has a significant contribution to the environmental impacts, mainly related with carbon dioxide emission. Therefore, the study and utilization of by-products or wastes usable as cement replacement in concrete can supply more sustainable options, provided that these type of concrete produced has same durability and equivalent quality properties as standard concrete. This work studied the environmental benefits of incorporating different percentages of two types of fly ashes that can be used in concrete as cement replacement. These ashes are waste products of power and heat production sectors using coal or biomass as fuels. The results showed that both ashes provide a benefit for the concrete production both in terms of environmental impact minimization and a better environmental performance through an increase in cement replacement. It is possible to verify that the incorporation of fly ashes is a sustainable option for cement substitution and a possible path to improve the environmental performance of the concrete industry.

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The pavement recycling allows to reuse reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) or other waste materials in new asphalt mixtures for road construction or rehabilitation, thus re-ducing the use of virgin materials (aggregates and bitumen). Thus, the main aim of this study is to minimize the use of natural resources through the reuse of three waste materials: HDPE, mo-tor oil and RAP. Different amounts of waste motor oil and HDPE were added to an asphalt binder with 50% aged bitumen. The best solutions to produce the modified binders (4.5 to 5.0% HDPE and 10 % waste motor oil) performed as well as a conventional bitumen although they only used 35 % of virgin bitumen. Asphalt mixtures with 50 % RAP were produced with the selected modified binders, improving some characteristics in comparison with conventional asphalt mixtures. In conclusion, these wastes can revive in new asphalt mixtures.

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A Zero waste management is believed to be one of methods to gain sustainability in urban areas. Take advantages of resources as enough as the needs and process it until the last part to be wasted is a contribution to take care the environment for the next generation. Reduce, reuse, and recycle are three simplesactivities which are until nowadays consideredas the back bone of zero waste. Jonggolgreen city is a new urban area in Indonesia with a 100 ha of surface area zoned as education tourism area. It is an independent area with pure natural resources of water, air, and land to be managed and protected. It is planned as green city through zero waste management since2013. In this preliminary period, a monitoring tool is being prepared by applying a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) for urban areas [1]. This paper will present an explanatory assessment ofthe zero waste management for Jonggolgreen city. The existing situation will be examined through LCA and afterwards,the new program and the proposed green design to gain the next level of zero waste will be discussed. The purpose is to track the persistence of the commitment and the perception of the necessary innovationsin order to achieve the ideal behavior level of LCA.

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Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

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Doctoral Thesis Civil Engineering

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Due to the fact that different injection molding conditions tailor the mechanical response of the thermoplastic material, such effect must be considered earlier in the product development process. The existing approaches implemented in different commercial software solutions are very limited in their capabilities to estimate the influence of processing conditions on the mechanical properties. Thus, the accuracy of predictive simulations could be improved. In this study, we demonstrate how to establish straightforward processing-impact property relationships of talc-filled injection-molded polypropylene disc-shaped parts by assessing the thermomechanical environment (TME). To investigate the relationship between impact properties and the key operative variables (flow rate, melt and mold temperature, and holding pressure), the design of experiments approach was applied to systematically vary the TME of molded samples. The TME is characterized on computer flow simulation outputsanddefined bytwo thermomechanical indices (TMI): the cooling index (CI; associated to the core features) and the thermo-stress index (TSI; related to the skin features). The TMI methodology coupled to an integrated simulation program has been developed as a tool to predict the impact response. The dynamic impact properties (peak force, peak energy, and puncture energy) were evaluated using instrumented falling weight impact tests and were all found to be similarly affected by the imposed TME. The most important molding parameters affecting the impact properties were found to be the processing temperatures (melt andmold). CI revealed greater importance for the impact response than TSI. The developed integrative tool provided truthful predictions for the envisaged impact properties.

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The paper presents three empirical studies designed to extend the test of the construct validity of the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) among Portuguese students. In the first study, the responses of 461 elementary and secondary education students were submitted to a principal component analysis. A solution of one single factor was chosen, accounting for 55.7 % of the total variance, with Cronbach alpha coefficient and inter-item correlation above .70 and .20, respectively. The second study used a sample of 317 undergraduate students and registered a similar factor solution for SWLS (/pq = 0.99), which accounted for 65.6 % of the total variance (Cronbach alpha .89 and inter-item correlation above .20). A test–retest analysis registered coefficients of .70 (T2) and .77 (T3) and no significant statistically differences between T2, T3 and T1. The third study used a sample of 107 foster care youths from elementary and secondary education. Confirmatory factor analysis results indicate adequate fit indexes for the one-factor solution (v2/df = 2.70, GFI = .96, CFI = .96), which showed convergent validity, reliability and homogeneity. In conclusion, there is psychometric evidence for the one-factor structure of the SWLS in Portugal.

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The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

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The increase in life expectancy with a decrease in birth rates is contributing to the ageing of the European population. This phenomenon, coupled with greater awareness of the quality of life, the need to have cost-efficient assistive care, the intention of people to live independently in their homes, and the technological developments in recent decades, have contributed to the emergence of the concept of ambient assisted living (AAL). AAL solutions aim to provide healthy and safe ageing to users through promoting independence in performing daily activities and interacting with technology, taking into consideration the deterioration of the users’ capabilities and the reduced costs of the solutions. In this chapter, AAL developments of monitoring activities of daily living (ADLs) and participation in a virtual community with the selected stakeholders are introduced, their roadmap with the expected technological developments are described, and the expected impact of these solutions on the end users of the developed solutions are discussed. This enables a real user guidance structure that represents the different needs and limitations of each user, presenting a highly structured project based on personas and possible solutions for them. The AAL4ALL Ambient Assisted Living for All (ALL4ALL) project is considered here as a case study to analyze and illustrate the ALL concepts discussed in this chapter.

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The aim of this study is to examine the relationship among psychological, clinical and sociodemographic variables, and quality of life in women with urinary incontinence. The sample consisted of 80 women diagnosed with urinary incontinence (UI) followed in a Northern Central Hospital in Portugal. Participants answered the Incontinence Quality of Life (I-QOL); Satisfaction with Sexual Relationship Questionnaire (SSRQ); Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scales (HADS) and the Brief Cope. The results revealed that women with higher quality of life considered their symptoms of urine loss as mild or moderated compared to those with severe urine loss. The less severe urine loss was associated with greater sexual satisfaction and less use of religion and self-blame as coping strategies. In terms of coping, women who considered the loss of urine as severe expressed more feelings regarding UI. Stress urinary incontinence, high sexual satisfaction, and less use of denial, distraction, and religion as coping strategies, predicted higher quality of life. According to the results, UI has an impact on women’s sexual satisfaction and quality of life. Therefore, intervention programs should target these women, including their partners, helping them to adjust to their condition and teaching effective coping strategies in order to improve their sexual satisfaction and quality of life.