3 resultados para Time-varying covariance matrices

em Universidade do Minho


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In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

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In this work, a new steel heated pultrusion die was designed, developed and manufactured to produce U200 glass fibre reinforced thermosetting matrix (GRP) profiles. The finite element analysis (FEA) was used to predict and optimise the developed die heating by using cylindrical electrical powered cartridges. To assess the new die performance it was mounted in the 120 kN pultrusion line of the Portuguese company Vidropol SA and used to produce continuously U200 profiles able to meet all requirements specified for the E23 grade accordingly to the European Standard EN 13706: 2002. After setting up the type, orientation and sequence of layers in the U 200 laminate, different types of thermosetting resins were used in its production. Orthophthalic, isophthalic and bisphenolic unsaturated polyester as well as vinylester resins were used to produce glass fibre reinforced U 200 composite profiles. All applied resins were submitted to SPI gel tests in order to select the more appropriated catalyst system and optimise the processing variables to be used in each case, namely, pultrusion pull-speed and die temperature. The best pultrusion operational conditions were selected by varying and monitoring the pull-speed and die temperature and, at the same time, measuring the temperature on the manufactured U 200 profile during processing. Finally, the produced U200 profiles were submitted to visual inspection, calcination and mechanical tests, namely, flexural, tensional and interlaminar shear strength (ILSS) tests, to assess their accomplishment with the EN 13706 requirements.

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PhD in Chemical and Biological Engineering