Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Multifunctional converter to interface renewable energy sources and electric vehicles with the power grid in smart grids context

This paper proposes a multifunctional converter to interface renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaic panels) and electric vehicles (EVs) with the power grid in smart grids context. This multifunctional converter allows deliver energy from the solar photovoltaic panels to an EV or to the power grid, and exchange energy in bidirectional mode between the EV and the power grid. Using this multifunctional converter are not required multiple conversion stages, as occurs with the traditional solutions, where are necessary two power converters to integrate the solar photovoltaic system in the power grid and also two power converters to integrate an off-board EV battery charger in the power grid (dc-dc and dc-ac power converters in both cases). Taking into account that the energy provided (or delivered) from the power grid in each moment is function of the EV operation mode and also of the energy produced from the solar photovoltaic system, it is possible to define operation strategies and control algorithms in order to increase the energy efficiency of the global system and to improve the power quality of the electrical system. The proposed multifunctional converter allows the operation in four distinct cases: (a) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system to the power grid; (b) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system and from the EV to the power grid; (c) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system to the EV or to the power grid; (d) Transfer of energy between the EV and the power grid. Along the paper are described the system architecture and the control algorithms, and are also presented some computational simulation results for the four aforementioned cases. It is also presented a comparative analysis between the traditional and the proposed solution in terms of operation efficiency and estimated cost of implementation.

The impact of poor power quality in solar photovoltaic microgeneration: technical problems and losses of revenue

This paper presents a critical and quantitative analysis of the influence of the Power Quality in grid connected solar photovoltaic microgeneration installations. First are introduced the main regulations and legislation related with the solar photovoltaic microgeneration, in Portugal and Europe. Next are presented Power Quality monitoring results obtained from two residential solar photovoltaic installations located in the north of Portugal, and is explained how the Power Quality events affect the operation of these installations. Afterwards, it is described a methodology to estimate the energy production losses and the impact in the revenue caused by the abnormal operation of the electrical installation. This is done by comparing the amount of energy that was injected into the power grid with the theoretical value of energy that could be injected in normal conditions. The performed analysis shows that Power Quality severally affects the solar photovoltaic installations operation. The losses of revenue in the two monitored installations M1 and M2 are estimated in about 27% and 22%, respectively.

Three-phase current-source shunt active power filter with solar photovoltaic grid interface

This paper presents the proposal of a three phase current source shunt active power filter (CS-SAPF) with photovoltaic grid interface. The proposed system combines the compensation of reactive power and harmonics with the injection of energy from a solar photovoltaic array into the electrical power grid. The proposed equipment presents the advantage of giving good use to the current source inverter, even when the solar photovoltaic array is not producing energy. The paper describes the control system of the CS SAPF, the energy injection control strategy, and the current harmonics and power factor compensation strategy. Simulation results to assess the performance of the proposed system are also presented.

Simulation of humidity fields in concrete: experimental validation and parameter estimation

The moisture content in concrete structures has an important influence in their behavior and performance. Several vali-dated numerical approaches adopt the governing equation for relative humidity fields proposed in Model Code 1990/2010. Nevertheless there is no integrative study which addresses the choice of parameters for the simulation of the humidity diffusion phenomenon, particularly in concern to the range of parameters forwarded by Model Code 1990/2010. A software based on a Finite Difference Method Algorithm (1D and axisymmetric cases) is used to perform sensitivity analyses on the main parameters in a normal strength concrete. Then, based on the conclusions of the sensi-tivity analyses, experimental results from nine different concrete compositions are analyzed. The software is used to identify the main material parameters that better fit the experimental data. In general, the model was able to satisfactory fit the experimental results and new correlations were proposed, particularly focusing on the boundary transfer coeffi-cient.

Using stated preference methods to assess environmental impacts of forest biomass power plants in Portugal

As a renewable energy source, the use of forest biomass for electricity generation is advantageous in comparison with fossil fuels, however the activity of forest biomass power plants causes adverse impacts, affecting particularly neighbouring communities. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the activity of forest biomass power plants on the welfare of two groups of stakeholders, namely local residents and the general population and we apply two stated preference methods: contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments, respectively. The former method was applied to estimate the minimum compensation residents of neighbouring communities of two forest biomass power plants in Portugal would be willing to accept. The latter method was applied among the general population to estimate their willingness to pay to avoid specific environmental impacts. The results show that the presence of the selected facilities affects individuals’ well-being. On the other hand, in the discrete choice experiments conducted among the general population all impacts considered were significant determinants of respondents’ welfare levels. The results of this study stress the importance of performing an equity analysis of the welfare effects on different groups of stakeholders from the installation of forest biomass power plants, as their effects on welfare are location and impact specific. Policy makers should take into account the views of all stakeholders either directly or indirectly involved when deciding crucial issues regarding the sitting of new forest biomass power plants, in order to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome.

Annoyance and welfare costs from the presence of renewable energy power plants: an application of the contingent valuation method

Sustainability is frequently defined by its three pillars: economically viable, socially equitable, and environmentally bearable. Consequently the evaluation of the sustainability of any decision, public or private, requires information on these three dimensions. This paper focuses on social sustainability. In the context of renewable energy sources, the examination of social sustainability requires the analysis of not only the efficiency but also the equity of its welfare impacts. The present paper proposes and applies a methodology to generate the information necessary to do a proper welfare analysis of the social sustainability of renewable energy production facilities. This information is key both for an equity and an efficiency analysis. The analysis focuses on the case of investments in renewable energy electricity production facilities, where the impacts on local residents’ welfare are often significantly different than the welfare effects on the general population. We apply the contingent valuation method to selected facilities across the different renewable energy power plants located in Portugal and conclude that local residents acknowledge differently the damage sustained by the type, location and operation of the plants. The results from these case studies attest to the need of acknowledging and quantifying the negative impacts on local communities when assessing the economic viability, social equity and environmental impact of renewable energy projects.

Implementation and comparison of different switching techniques for shunt active power filters

This paper presents a comparison between three switching techniques that can be used in three-phase four-wire Shunt Active Power Filters (SAPFs). The implemented switching techniques are: Periodic-Sampling (PS), Triangular Carrier Pulse-Width Modulation (TC-PWM) and Space Vector PWM (SVPWM). The comparison between them is made in terms of the compensated currents THD%, implementation complexity, necessary CPU time and SAPF efficiency. To perform this comparison are presented and analyzed several experimental results, obtained with a 20 kVA Shunt Active Power Filter prototype, specially developed for this purpose. The control system of the developed SAPF is based in the p-q Theory with a grid synchronization algorithm p-PLL.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

New control algorithm for single-phase series active power filter

This paper presents a single-phase Series Active Power Filter (Series APF) for mitigation of the load voltage harmonic content, while maintaining the voltage on the DC side regulated without the support of a voltage source. The proposed series active power filter control algorithm eliminates the additional voltage source to regulate the DC voltage, and with the adopted topology it is not used a coupling transformer to interface the series active power filter with the electrical power grid. The paper describes the control strategy which encapsulates the grid synchronization scheme, the compensation voltage calculation, the damping algorithm and the dead-time compensation. The topology and control strategy of the series active power filter have been evaluated in simulation software and simulations results are presented. Experimental results, obtained with a developed laboratorial prototype, validate the theoretical assumptions, and are within the harmonic spectrum limits imposed by the international recommendations of the IEEE-519 Standard.

Which soft lens power is better for piggyback in keratoconus? Part II

Purpose: To evaluate how soft lens power affects rigid gas-permeable (RGP) lens power and visual acuity (VA) in piggyback fittings for keratoconus. Methods: Sixteen keratoconus subjects (30 eyes) were included in the study. Piggyback contact lens fittings combining Senofilcon-A soft lenses of −6.00, −3.00, +3.00 and +6.00 D with Rose K2 RGP contact lenses were performed. Corneal topography was taken on the naked eye and over each soft contact lens before fitting RGP lenses. Mean central keratometry, over-refraction, RGP back optic zone radius (BOZR) and estimated final power as well as VA were recorded and analyzed. Results: In comparison to the naked eye, the mean central keratometry flattened with both negative lens powers (p < 0.05 in all cases), did not change with the +3.00 soft lens power (p = 1.0); and steepened with the +6.00 soft lens power (p = 0.02). Rigid gas-permeable over-refraction did not change significantly between different soft lens powers (all p > 0.05). RGP’s BOZR decreased significantly with both positive in comparison with both negative soft lens powers (all p < 0.001), but no significant differences were found among negative- or positive-powers separately (both p > 0.05). Estimated RGP’s final power increased significantly with positive in comparison with negative lens powers (all p < 0.001), but no significant differences were found among negative or positive lens powers separately (both p > 0.05). Visual acuity did not change significantly between the different soft lens powers assessed (all p > 0.05). Conclusion: The use of negative-powered soft lenses in piggyback fitting reduces RGP lens power without impacting VA in keratoconus subjects.

A review of mycotoxins in food and feed products in Portugal and estimation of probable daily intakes

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by filamentous fungi that occur naturally in agricultural commodities worldwide. Aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, patulin, fumonisins, zearalenone, trichothecenes and ergot alkaloids are presently the most important for food and feed safety. These compounds are produced by several species that belong to the Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium and Claviceps genera and can be carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic, cytotoxic, neurotoxic, nephrotoxic, estrogenic and immunosuppressant. Human and animal exposure to mycotoxins is generally assessed by taking into account data on the occurrence of mycotoxins in food and feed as well as data on the consumption patterns of the concerned population. This evaluation is crucial to support measures to reduce consumer exposure to mycotoxins. This work reviews the occurrence and levels of mycotoxins in Portuguese food and feed to provide a global overview of this issue in Portugal. With the information collected, the exposure of the Portuguese population to those mycotoxins is assessed, and the estimated dietary intakes are presented.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Performance assessment of electrically small antennas for implantable microsystems with wireless power and communications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Eletrónica Médica)

Conceção técnica e avaliação económica de um veículo solar para venda de produtos refrigerados

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Mecânica