Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Firm innovation and co-location in Portugal

This paper investigates the geographical distribution and concentration of firms’ innovation persistence and innovation type (product and process) based on three waves of the Portuguese Community Innovation Survey data covering the period 1998–2006. The main findings are: 1) both innovation persistence and innovation type are asymmetrically distributed across Portuguese regions, 2) the degree of correlation between geographical location and innovative output varies with the innovation type, and 3) the correlation between geographical unit and innovation increases when the spatial unit of analysis is narrower. The results suggest that the firms’ choices of geographical location have a long-lasting effect, engendering no equal probabilities of being persistently innovative.

Comparação de probabilidades de acontecimentos formulados de forma explícita e implícita

Neste artigo estuda-se a realização de alunos futuros educadores e professores dos primeiros anos de escolaridade na comparação de probabilidades de acontecimentos em diferentes contextos sociais, formulados de forma explícita e implícita, tendo em vista averiguar a influência do nível de explicitação na comparação de probabilidades. Participaram no estudo 51 alunos futuros educadores e professores dos primeiros anos de escolaridade, que responderam a um questionário contendo duas questões, com vários itens envolvendo a comparação de probabilidades de acontecimentos formulados explícita e implicitamente. Em termos de resultados, globalmente, verificou-se que os itens formulados implicitamente se revelaram mais difíceis para os alunos do que os itens formulados explicitamente.

Relatório de atividade profissional

Relatório de atividade profissional de mestrado em Ciências – Formação Contínua de Professores (área de especialização em Matemática)

Pervasive decision support to predict football corners and goals by means of data mining

Football is considered nowadays one of the most popular sports. In the betting world, it has acquired an outstanding position, which moves millions of euros during the period of a single football match. The lack of profitability of football betting users has been stressed as a problem. This lack gave origin to this research proposal, which it is going to analyse the possibility of existing a way to support the users to increase their profits on their bets. Data mining models were induced with the purpose of supporting the gamblers to increase their profits in the medium/long term. Being conscience that the models can fail, the results achieved by four of the seven targets in the models are encouraging and suggest that the system can help to increase the profits. All defined targets have two possible classes to predict, for example, if there are more or less than 7.5 corners in a single game. The data mining models of the targets, more or less than 7.5 corners, 8.5 corners, 1.5 goals and 3.5 goals achieved the pre-defined thresholds. The models were implemented in a prototype, which it is a pervasive decision support system. This system was developed with the purpose to be an interface for any user, both for an expert user as to a user who has no knowledge in football games.