Implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements

The assessment of existing timber structures is often limited to information obtained from non or semi destructive testing, as mechanical testing is in many cases not possible due to its destructive nature. Therefore, the available data provides only an indirect measurement of the reference mechanical properties of timber elements, often obtained through empirical based correlations. Moreover, the data must result from the combination of different tests, as to provide a reliable source of information for a structural analysis. Even if general guidelines are available for each typology of testing, there is still a need for a global methodology allowing to combine information from different sources and infer upon that information in a decision process. In this scope, the present work presents the implementation of a probabilistic based framework for safety assessment of existing timber elements. This methodology combines information gathered in different scales and follows a probabilistic framework allowing for the structural assessment of existing timber elements with possibility of inference and updating of its mechanical properties, through Bayesian methods. The probabilistic based framework is based in four main steps: (i) scale of information; (ii) measurement data; (iii) probability assignment; and (iv) structural analysis. In this work, the proposed methodology is implemented in a case study. Data was obtained through a multi-scale experimental campaign made to old chestnut timber beams accounting correlations of non and semi-destructive tests with mechanical properties. Finally, different inference scenarios are discussed aiming at the characterization of the safety level of the elements.

An innovative framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment with an application to existing reinforced concrete structures

A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Exploração de séries temporais em processos de previsão de vendas

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Método de desagregação temporal para a previsão da taxa de desemprego em Portugal

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Para uma pedagogia das literacias: das conceções e práticas docentes aos conceitos e competências discentes. Um estudo da aula de língua portuguesa no 2º ciclo do ensino básico

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (Especialidade em Literacias e Ensino do Português)

A study of risk-aware program transformation

In the trend towards tolerating hardware unreliability, accuracy is exchanged for cost savings. Running on less reliable machines, functionally correct code becomes risky and one needs to know how risk propagates so as to mitigate it. Risk estimation, however, seems to live outside the average programmer’s technical competence and core practice. In this paper we propose that program design by source-to-source transformation be risk-aware in the sense of making probabilistic faults visible and supporting equational reasoning on the probabilistic behaviour of programs caused by faults. This reasoning is carried out in a linear algebra extension to the standard, `a la Bird-Moor algebra of programming. This paper studies, in particular, the propagation of faults across standard program transformation techniques known as tupling and fusion, enabling the fault of the whole to be expressed in terms of the faults of its parts.

Towards an engine for coordination-based architectural reconfigurations

Software reconfigurability became increasingly relevant to the architectural process due to the crescent dependency of modern societies on reliable and adaptable systems. Such systems are supposed to adapt themselves to surrounding environmental changes with minimal service disruption, if any. This paper introduces an engine that statically applies reconfigurations to (formal) models of software architectures. Reconfigurations are specified using a domain specific language— ReCooPLa—which targets the manipulation of software coordinationstructures,typicallyusedinservice-orientedarchitectures(soa).Theengine is responsible for the compilation of ReCooPLa instances and their application to the relevant coordination structures. The resulting configurations are amenable to formal analysis of qualitative and quantitative (probabilistic) properties.

Programa com abordagem probabilística do sistema de avaliação de qualidade de taludes Slope Quality Index (SQI)

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Real-time monitoring of progression towards renal failure in primary care patients

First published online: December 16, 2014.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Pervasive patient timeline for intensive care units

This research work explores a new way of presenting and representing information about patients in critical care, which is the use of a timeline to display information. This is accomplished with the development of an interactive Pervasive Patient Timeline able to give to the intensivists an access in real-time to an environment containing patients clinical information from the moment in which the patients are admitted in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) until their discharge This solution allows the intensivists to analyse data regarding vital signs, medication, exams, data mining predictions, among others. Due to the pervasive features, intensivists can have access to the timeline anywhere and anytime, allowing them to make decisions when they need to be made. This platform is patient-centred and is prepared to support the decision process allowing the intensivists to provide better care to patients due the inclusion of clinical forecasts.