Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Multifunctional converter to interface renewable energy sources and electric vehicles with the power grid in smart grids context

This paper proposes a multifunctional converter to interface renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaic panels) and electric vehicles (EVs) with the power grid in smart grids context. This multifunctional converter allows deliver energy from the solar photovoltaic panels to an EV or to the power grid, and exchange energy in bidirectional mode between the EV and the power grid. Using this multifunctional converter are not required multiple conversion stages, as occurs with the traditional solutions, where are necessary two power converters to integrate the solar photovoltaic system in the power grid and also two power converters to integrate an off-board EV battery charger in the power grid (dc-dc and dc-ac power converters in both cases). Taking into account that the energy provided (or delivered) from the power grid in each moment is function of the EV operation mode and also of the energy produced from the solar photovoltaic system, it is possible to define operation strategies and control algorithms in order to increase the energy efficiency of the global system and to improve the power quality of the electrical system. The proposed multifunctional converter allows the operation in four distinct cases: (a) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system to the power grid; (b) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system and from the EV to the power grid; (c) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system to the EV or to the power grid; (d) Transfer of energy between the EV and the power grid. Along the paper are described the system architecture and the control algorithms, and are also presented some computational simulation results for the four aforementioned cases. It is also presented a comparative analysis between the traditional and the proposed solution in terms of operation efficiency and estimated cost of implementation.

The impact of poor power quality in solar photovoltaic microgeneration: technical problems and losses of revenue

This paper presents a critical and quantitative analysis of the influence of the Power Quality in grid connected solar photovoltaic microgeneration installations. First are introduced the main regulations and legislation related with the solar photovoltaic microgeneration, in Portugal and Europe. Next are presented Power Quality monitoring results obtained from two residential solar photovoltaic installations located in the north of Portugal, and is explained how the Power Quality events affect the operation of these installations. Afterwards, it is described a methodology to estimate the energy production losses and the impact in the revenue caused by the abnormal operation of the electrical installation. This is done by comparing the amount of energy that was injected into the power grid with the theoretical value of energy that could be injected in normal conditions. The performed analysis shows that Power Quality severally affects the solar photovoltaic installations operation. The losses of revenue in the two monitored installations M1 and M2 are estimated in about 27% and 22%, respectively.

Three-phase current-source shunt active power filter with solar photovoltaic grid interface

This paper presents the proposal of a three phase current source shunt active power filter (CS-SAPF) with photovoltaic grid interface. The proposed system combines the compensation of reactive power and harmonics with the injection of energy from a solar photovoltaic array into the electrical power grid. The proposed equipment presents the advantage of giving good use to the current source inverter, even when the solar photovoltaic array is not producing energy. The paper describes the control system of the CS SAPF, the energy injection control strategy, and the current harmonics and power factor compensation strategy. Simulation results to assess the performance of the proposed system are also presented.

Using stated preference methods to assess environmental impacts of forest biomass power plants in Portugal

As a renewable energy source, the use of forest biomass for electricity generation is advantageous in comparison with fossil fuels, however the activity of forest biomass power plants causes adverse impacts, affecting particularly neighbouring communities. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the activity of forest biomass power plants on the welfare of two groups of stakeholders, namely local residents and the general population and we apply two stated preference methods: contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments, respectively. The former method was applied to estimate the minimum compensation residents of neighbouring communities of two forest biomass power plants in Portugal would be willing to accept. The latter method was applied among the general population to estimate their willingness to pay to avoid specific environmental impacts. The results show that the presence of the selected facilities affects individuals’ well-being. On the other hand, in the discrete choice experiments conducted among the general population all impacts considered were significant determinants of respondents’ welfare levels. The results of this study stress the importance of performing an equity analysis of the welfare effects on different groups of stakeholders from the installation of forest biomass power plants, as their effects on welfare are location and impact specific. Policy makers should take into account the views of all stakeholders either directly or indirectly involved when deciding crucial issues regarding the sitting of new forest biomass power plants, in order to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome.

Annoyance and welfare costs from the presence of renewable energy power plants: an application of the contingent valuation method

Sustainability is frequently defined by its three pillars: economically viable, socially equitable, and environmentally bearable. Consequently the evaluation of the sustainability of any decision, public or private, requires information on these three dimensions. This paper focuses on social sustainability. In the context of renewable energy sources, the examination of social sustainability requires the analysis of not only the efficiency but also the equity of its welfare impacts. The present paper proposes and applies a methodology to generate the information necessary to do a proper welfare analysis of the social sustainability of renewable energy production facilities. This information is key both for an equity and an efficiency analysis. The analysis focuses on the case of investments in renewable energy electricity production facilities, where the impacts on local residents’ welfare are often significantly different than the welfare effects on the general population. We apply the contingent valuation method to selected facilities across the different renewable energy power plants located in Portugal and conclude that local residents acknowledge differently the damage sustained by the type, location and operation of the plants. The results from these case studies attest to the need of acknowledging and quantifying the negative impacts on local communities when assessing the economic viability, social equity and environmental impact of renewable energy projects.

Possible uses of augmented reality as a tool for guidance of users of packages

Acioly, A. S. G., Soares, M. M., & Arezes, P. M. (2015). Possible uses of augmented reality as a tool for guidance of users of packages. Paper presented at the Occupational Safety and Hygiene III - Selected Extended and Revised Contributions from the International Symposium on Safety and Hygiene.

A proactive intelligent decision support system for predicting the popularity of online news

"Lecture notes in computer science series, ISSN 0302-9743, vol. 9273"

Automatic generation of ETL physical systems from BPMN conceptual models

ETL conceptual modeling is a very important activity in any data warehousing system project implementation. Owning a high-level system representation allowing for a clear identification of the main parts of a data warehousing system is clearly a great advantage, especially in early stages of design and development. However, the effort to model conceptually an ETL system rarely is properly rewarded. Translating ETL conceptual models directly into something that saves work and time on the concrete implementation of the system process it would be, in fact, a great help. In this paper we present and discuss a hybrid approach to this problem, combining the simplicity of interpretation and power of expression of BPMN on ETL systems conceptualization with the use of ETL patterns to produce automatically an ETL skeleton, a first prototype system, which has the ability to be executed in a commercial ETL tool like Kettle.

Implementation and comparison of different switching techniques for shunt active power filters

This paper presents a comparison between three switching techniques that can be used in three-phase four-wire Shunt Active Power Filters (SAPFs). The implemented switching techniques are: Periodic-Sampling (PS), Triangular Carrier Pulse-Width Modulation (TC-PWM) and Space Vector PWM (SVPWM). The comparison between them is made in terms of the compensated currents THD%, implementation complexity, necessary CPU time and SAPF efficiency. To perform this comparison are presented and analyzed several experimental results, obtained with a 20 kVA Shunt Active Power Filter prototype, specially developed for this purpose. The control system of the developed SAPF is based in the p-q Theory with a grid synchronization algorithm p-PLL.

Quantitative image analysis as a tool for Yarrowia lipolytica dimorphic growth evaluation in different culture media

Yarrowia lipolytica, a yeast strain with a huge biotechnological potential, capable to produce metabolites such as γ-decalactone, citric acid, intracellular lipids and enzymes, possesses the ability to change its morphology in response to environmental conditions. In the present study, a quantitative image analysis (QIA) procedure was developed for the identification and quantification of Y. lipolytica W29 and MTLY40-2P strains dimorphic growth, cultivated in batch cultures on hydrophilic (glucose and N-acetylglucosamine (GlcNAc) and hydrophobic (olive oil and castor oil) media. The morphological characterization of yeast cells by QIA techniques revealed that hydrophobic carbon sources, namely castor oil, should be preferred for both strains growth in the yeast single cell morphotype. On the other hand, hydrophilic sugars, namely glucose and GlcNAc caused a dimorphic transition growth towards the hyphae morphotype. Experiments for γ-decalactone production with MTLY40-2P strain in two distinct morphotypes (yeast single cells and hyphae cells) were also performed. The obtained results showed the adequacy of the proposed morphology monitoring tool in relation to each morphotype on the aroma production ability. The present work allowed establishing that QIA techniques can be a valuable tool for the identification of the best culture conditions for industrial processes implementation.

Changes in institutional governance and management of higher education in Laos: National University of Laos

PhD thesis in Educational Sciences (specialization in Politics of Education).

Web evaluator for students: a case example

Getting the attention of students has always been a hard task for most teachers. In this context the use of new technologies can be taken into consideration for giving the teacher new means to incentive his students. The tool described in this article gives importance to the opinion of the students for their own evaluation. Thanks to it a group of students from the University of Minho was able to post questions to their colleagues and to evaluate their peer’s works on the discipline of Power Electronics Complement.

New control algorithm for single-phase series active power filter

This paper presents a single-phase Series Active Power Filter (Series APF) for mitigation of the load voltage harmonic content, while maintaining the voltage on the DC side regulated without the support of a voltage source. The proposed series active power filter control algorithm eliminates the additional voltage source to regulate the DC voltage, and with the adopted topology it is not used a coupling transformer to interface the series active power filter with the electrical power grid. The paper describes the control strategy which encapsulates the grid synchronization scheme, the compensation voltage calculation, the damping algorithm and the dead-time compensation. The topology and control strategy of the series active power filter have been evaluated in simulation software and simulations results are presented. Experimental results, obtained with a developed laboratorial prototype, validate the theoretical assumptions, and are within the harmonic spectrum limits imposed by the international recommendations of the IEEE-519 Standard.

Which soft lens power is better for piggyback in keratoconus? Part II

Purpose: To evaluate how soft lens power affects rigid gas-permeable (RGP) lens power and visual acuity (VA) in piggyback fittings for keratoconus. Methods: Sixteen keratoconus subjects (30 eyes) were included in the study. Piggyback contact lens fittings combining Senofilcon-A soft lenses of −6.00, −3.00, +3.00 and +6.00 D with Rose K2 RGP contact lenses were performed. Corneal topography was taken on the naked eye and over each soft contact lens before fitting RGP lenses. Mean central keratometry, over-refraction, RGP back optic zone radius (BOZR) and estimated final power as well as VA were recorded and analyzed. Results: In comparison to the naked eye, the mean central keratometry flattened with both negative lens powers (p < 0.05 in all cases), did not change with the +3.00 soft lens power (p = 1.0); and steepened with the +6.00 soft lens power (p = 0.02). Rigid gas-permeable over-refraction did not change significantly between different soft lens powers (all p > 0.05). RGP’s BOZR decreased significantly with both positive in comparison with both negative soft lens powers (all p < 0.001), but no significant differences were found among negative- or positive-powers separately (both p > 0.05). Estimated RGP’s final power increased significantly with positive in comparison with negative lens powers (all p < 0.001), but no significant differences were found among negative or positive lens powers separately (both p > 0.05). Visual acuity did not change significantly between the different soft lens powers assessed (all p > 0.05). Conclusion: The use of negative-powered soft lenses in piggyback fitting reduces RGP lens power without impacting VA in keratoconus subjects.