Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Decision methods applied to solve a safety problem on a waste treatment facility

To solve a health and safety problem on a waste treatment facility, different multicriteria decision methods were used, including the PROV Exponential decision method. Four alternatives and ten attributes were considered. We found a congruent solution, validated by the different methods. The AHP and the PROV Exponential decision method led us to the same options ordering, but the last method reinforced one of the options as being the best performing one, and detached the least performing option. Also, the ELECTRE I method results led to the same ordering which allowed to point the best solution with reasonable confidence. This paper demonstrates the potential of using multicriteria decision methods to support decision making on complex problems such as risk control and accidents prevention.

Promoção da autonomia dos alunos na aprendizagem de programação para a WEB

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Informática

Comparing standard and low-cost tools for gradient evaluation along potential cycling paths

Promoting the use of non-motorized modes of transport, such as cycling, is an important contribution to the improvement of mobility, accessibility and equity in cities. Cycling offers a fast and cheap transportation option for short distances, helping to lower pollutant emissions and contributing to a healthier way of life. In order to make the cycling mode more competitive in relation to motorized traffic, it is necessary to evaluate the potential of alternatives from the perspective of the physical effort. One way to do so consists of assessing the suitability of locations for implementing cycling infrastructures. In this work, four tools to determine the gradient along potential cycling paths are compared. Furthermore, an evaluation of the reliability of some low-cost tools to measure this parameter was conducted, by comparison with standard measurements using cartographic plans, on a field case study applied to the city of Braga, Portugal. These tools revealed a good level of accuracy for the planning stage, but proved to be less reliable for use in design.

Estudo da influência de nanotubos de carbono funcionalizados nas propriedades de revestimentos de poliuretano

Dissertação de mestrado em Propriedades e Tecnologias de Polímeros

Validação de design de armazém automatizado com uso de simulação discreta

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Designing next generation car washing machines with rotary brushes

Tese de Doutoramento - Leaders for Technical Industries (LTI) - MIT Portugal

A cost study of common surface finish systems for steel structures

This paper presents part of a study aimed at finding a suitable, yet cost-effective, surface finish for a steel structure subject to the car washing environment and corrosive chemicals. The initial, life cycle and average equivalent annual (AEAC) costs for surface finishing methods were calculated for a steel structure using the LCCC algorithm developed by American Galvanizers Association (AGA). The cost study consisted of 45 common surface finish systems including: hot-dip galvanization (HDG), metallization, acrylic, alkyd and epoxy as well as duplex coatings such as epoxy zinc and inorganic zinc (IOZ). The results show that initial, life cycle and AEAC costs for hot dip galvanization are the lowest among all the other methods, followed by coal tar epoxy painting. The annual average cost of HDG for this structure was estimated about €0.22/m2, while the other cost-effective alternatives were: IOZ, polyurea, epoxy waterborne and IOZ/epoxy duplex coating.

Instrumentos de políticas públicas do turismo: uma análise empírica dos municípios portugueses

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Administração

GIS application in water resources master planning

Due to water scarcity, it is important to organize and regulate water resources utilization to satisfy the conflicting water demands and needs. This paper aims to describe a comprehensive methodology for managing the water sector of a defined urbanized region, using the robust capabilities of a Geographic Information System (GIS). The proposed methodology is based on finding alternatives to cover the gap between recent supplies and future demands. Nablus which is a main governorate located in the north of West Bank, Palestine, was selected as case study because this area is classified as arid to semi-arid area. In fact, GIS integrates hardware, software, and data for capturing, managing, analyzing, and displaying all forms of geographic information. The resulted plan of Nablus represents an example of the proposed methodology implementation and a valid framework for the elaboration of a water master plan.

Inkjet printing technology for flexible pressure sensors

Tese de Doutoramento Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos.

BeSmart2: A multicriteria decision aid application

This paper presents an improved version of an application whose goal is to provide a simple and intuitive way to use multicriteria decision methods in day-to-day decision problems. The application allows comparisons between several alternatives with several criteria, always keeping a permanent backup of both model and results, and provides a framework to incorporate new methods in the future. Developed in C#, the application implements the AHP, SMART and Value Functions methods.

Comunicação Android com câmaras ONVIF e gestão de Perfis de Media

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia de Telecomunicações e Informática

Simulação numérica do comportamento ao impacto de componentes para calçado de segurança

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Mecânica

Estudo, projeto e desenvolvimento de uma máquina para montar e vincar sacos de papel

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Mecânica