17 resultados para Estimation par maximum de vraisemblance

em Universidade do Minho


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The structural analysis involves the definition of the model and selection of the analysis type. The model should represent the stiffness, the mass and the loads of the structure. The structures can be represented using simplified models, such as the lumped mass models, and advanced models resorting the Finite Element Method (FEM) and Discrete Element Method (DEM). Depending on the characteristics of the structure, different types of analysis can be used such as limit analysis, linear and non-linear static analysis and linear and non-linear dynamic analysis. Unreinforced masonry structures present low tensile strength and the linear analyses seem to not be adequate for assessing their structural behaviour. On the other hand, the static and dynamic non-linear analyses are complex, since they involve large time computational requirements and advanced knowledge of the practitioner. The non-linear analysis requires advanced knowledge on the material properties, analysis tools and interpretation of results. The limit analysis with macro-blocks can be assumed as a more practical method in the estimation of maximum load capacity of structure. Furthermore, the limit analysis require a reduced number of parameters, which is an advantage for the assessment of ancient and historical masonry structures, due to the difficult in obtaining reliable data.

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The moisture content in concrete structures has an important influence in their behavior and performance. Several vali-dated numerical approaches adopt the governing equation for relative humidity fields proposed in Model Code 1990/2010. Nevertheless there is no integrative study which addresses the choice of parameters for the simulation of the humidity diffusion phenomenon, particularly in concern to the range of parameters forwarded by Model Code 1990/2010. A software based on a Finite Difference Method Algorithm (1D and axisymmetric cases) is used to perform sensitivity analyses on the main parameters in a normal strength concrete. Then, based on the conclusions of the sensi-tivity analyses, experimental results from nine different concrete compositions are analyzed. The software is used to identify the main material parameters that better fit the experimental data. In general, the model was able to satisfactory fit the experimental results and new correlations were proposed, particularly focusing on the boundary transfer coeffi-cient.

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This work presents an improved model to solve the non-emergency patients transport (NEPT) service issues given the new rules recently established in Portugal. The model follows the same principle of the Team Orienteering Problem by selecting the patients to be included in the routes attending the maximum reduction in costs when compared with individual transportation. This model establishes the best sets of patients to be transported together. The model was implemented in AMPL and a compact formulation was solved using NEOS Server. A heuristic procedure based on iteratively solving Orienteering Problems is presented, and this heuristic provides good results in terms of accuracy and computation time. Euclidean instances as well as asymmetric real data gathered from Google maps were used, and the model has a promising performance mainly with asymmetric cost matrices.

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Cette communication présente les caractéristiques principales d’un modèle par Eléments Finis (EF) développé en utilisant le logiciel FEMIX afin de prévoir le comportement de poutres en béton armé corrodées réparées à l’effort tranchant par l’insertion des joncs de carbone par la technique NSM (Near-Surface Mounted reinforcement). Cette technique consiste à sceller les joncs de carbone dans des engravures déjà préparées sur les surfaces inférieure et latérale de la poutre corrodée à réparer. Les résultats expérimentaux et ceux de la modélisation numérique en mode 3D sont présentés en termes des courbes charge-flèche et des modes de ruine pour quatre poutres courtes: deux poutres corrodées (A1CL3-B et A1CL3-SB) et deux poutres témoins (A1T-B et A1T-SB), les poutres avec « -B » sont réparées seulement en flexion avec un jonc de carbone par la technique NSM, tandis que celles avec « -SB » sont réparées à la fois en flexion et à l’effort tranchant. La corrosion des barres d'acier tendues et son effet sur la résistance à l’effort tranchant des poutres en béton armé sont discutés. Les résultats ont montré une bonne corrélation entre les prédictions par le modèle EF en termes de courbes expérimentales charge-flèche, de la fissuration et des modes de ruine.

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Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia (área de especialização em Psicologia da Justiça).

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Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

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The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

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In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

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Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by filamentous fungi that occur naturally in agricultural commodities worldwide. Aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, patulin, fumonisins, zearalenone, trichothecenes and ergot alkaloids are presently the most important for food and feed safety. These compounds are produced by several species that belong to the Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium and Claviceps genera and can be carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic, cytotoxic, neurotoxic, nephrotoxic, estrogenic and immunosuppressant. Human and animal exposure to mycotoxins is generally assessed by taking into account data on the occurrence of mycotoxins in food and feed as well as data on the consumption patterns of the concerned population. This evaluation is crucial to support measures to reduce consumer exposure to mycotoxins. This work reviews the occurrence and levels of mycotoxins in Portuguese food and feed to provide a global overview of this issue in Portugal. With the information collected, the exposure of the Portuguese population to those mycotoxins is assessed, and the estimated dietary intakes are presented.

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The aim of this work was to investigate the effect on a display gamut of varying the optical density and the position of the maximum sensitivity of the cones spectra of anomalous trichromatic observers. The anomalous cone spectral sensitivities were estimated for a set of varying optical density and maximum sensitivity spectra conditions and used to compute the display color gamut. The computed display gamut simulated for normal observers the chro- matic diversity perceived by anomalous observers. It was found that even small variations on the optical density and on the position of the maximum sensitivity spectra have an impact on the simulations of the display gamut for anomalous observers. It was also found that simulations for deuteroanomalous observers are the ones with greater impact if the estimation of the corresponding color display gamut is not carefully adjusted for the observer.

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

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A precise estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) is one of the most important topics in forensic pathology. However, the PMI estimation is based mainly on the visual observation of cadaverous pheno- mena (e.g. algor, livor and rigor mortis) and on alternative methods such as thanatochemistry that remain relatively imprecise. The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the kinetic alterations of several bio- chemical parameters (i.e. proteins, enzymes, substrates, electrolytes and lipids) during putrefaction of human blood. For this purpose, we performed kinetic biochemical analysis during a 264 hour period. The results showed a significant linear correlation between total and direct bilirubin, urea, uric acid, transferrin, immunoglobulin M (IgM), creatine kinase (CK), aspartate transaminase (AST), calcium and iron with the time of blood putrefaction. These parameters allowed us to develop two mathematical models that may have predictive values and become important complementary tools of traditional methods to achieve a more accurate PMI estimation

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La carte postale est un kaléidoscope de vues, d’ornements et de couleurs, qui consacre un tout petit espace au message. C’est à la photographie et aux procédés de reproduction photomécaniques que revient le mérite d’avoir industrialisé la production de la carte postale. Et ce sont les clichés de villes, avec leurs monuments et leurs paysages, qui confèrent à la carte postale son statut de moyen de communication de masse et qui lui concèdent une affinité avec l’industrie du tourisme. La carte postale s’est ainsi emparée de l’ambition photographique de reproduire le monde, s’alliant aux « besoins de l’exploration, des expéditions et des relevés topographiques » du médium photographique à ses débuts. Ayant comme point depart la carte postale, notre objectif est de montrer les conséquences culturelles de la révolution optique, commencée au milieu du XIXe siècle, avec l’invention de l’appareil photo, et consumée dans la seconde moitié du XXe siècle, avec l’apparition de l’ordinateur. En effet, depuis l’apparition de l’appareil photographique et des cartes postales jusqu’au flux de pixels de Google Images et aux images satellite de Google Earth, un entrelacement de territoire, puissance et technique a été mis en oeuvre, la terre devenant, en conséquence, de plus en plus auscultée par les appareils de vision, ce qui impacte sur la perception de l’espace. Nous espérons pouvoir montrer avec cette étude que la lettre traditionnelle est à l’email ce que la carte postale est au post que l’on publie dans un blog ou dans des réseaux comme Facebook et Twitter. À notre sens, les cartes postales correspondent à l’ouverture maximale du système postal moderne, qui d’universel devient dépendant et partie intégrante des réseaux télématiques d’envoi. Par elles sont annoncés, en effet, la vitesse de transmission de l’information, la brièveté de la parole et l’hégémonie de la dimension imagétique du message, et pour finir, l’embarras provoqué par la fusion de l’espace public avec l’espace privé.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Direito dos Contratos e da Empresa

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Dissertação de mestrado em Molecular Genetics