Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Interaction paradigms versus age-related user profiles: an evaluation on content selection

Novel input modalities such as touch, tangibles or gestures try to exploit human's innate skills rather than imposing new learning processes. However, despite the recent boom of different natural interaction paradigms, it hasn't been systematically evaluated how these interfaces influence a user's performance or whether each interface could be more or less appropriate when it comes to: 1) different age groups; and 2) different basic operations, as data selection, insertion or manipulation. This work presents the first step of an exploratory evaluation about whether or not the users' performance is indeed influenced by the different interfaces. The key point is to understand how different interaction paradigms affect specific target-audiences (children, adults and older adults) when dealing with a selection task. 60 participants took part in this study to assess how different interfaces may influence the interaction of specific groups of users with regard to their age. Four input modalities were used to perform a selection task and the methodology was based on usability testing (speed, accuracy and user preference). The study suggests a statistically significant difference between mean selection times for each group of users, and also raises new issues regarding the “old” mouse input versus the “new” input modalities.

User expectations for media sharing practices in open display networks

Open Display Networks have the potential to allow many content creators to publish their media to an open-ended set of screen displays. However, this raises the issue of how to match that content to the right displays. In this study, we aim to understand how the perceived utility of particular media sharing scenarios is affected by three independent variables, more specifically: (a) the locativeness of the content being shared; (b) how personal that content is and (c) the scope in which it is being shared. To assess these effects, we composed a set of 24 media sharing scenarios embedded with different treatments of our three independent variables. We then asked 100 participants to express their perception of the relevance of those scenarios. The results suggest a clear preference for scenarios where content is both local and directly related to the person that is publishing it. This is in stark contrast to the types of content that are commonly found in public displays, and confirms the opportunity that open displays networks may represent a new media for self-expression. This novel understanding may inform the design of new publication paradigms that will enable people to share media across the display networks.

Portuguese publication in the aim of regional science: a study of articles published in RPER from 2003 to 2015

This paper is a study of the full content of articles published by RPER, the Portuguese Review of Regional Studies, from the time it was launched in 2003 until the first quarter of 2015. RPER is a journal edited by the Portuguese section of the European Regional Science Association, which was established in the first half of the 1980s. The Association (APDR) and the journal are the result of contributions by researchers and technicians from different scientific fields, including mainly Economics, Geography, Sociology, Engineering and Architecture. The main focus of these contributions is the socio-economic life of concrete sites, and the way this life is conditioned by resources and capabilities, the historical and cultural heritage and institutions. Content analysis was undertaken to identify the main subjects chosen during the total period under analysis, the nature of the articles published (theoretical or empirical) and the main analytical framework used. The analysis also covers sub-periods to investigate major trends found in terms of subjects chosen and analytical methods, questioning the rationale behind them. The paper concludes with a few notes regarding the social echo the research received and an identification of the main limitations of the research. In the first part of the article, we conduct a summary review of the genesis and evolution of Regional Science at international level to serve as a basis for the empirical approach developed.

A systematic study of the structural and magnetic properties of Mn-, Co-, and Ni-Doped Colloidal Fe3O4 nanoparticles

A series of colloidal MxFe3-xO4 (M = Mn, Co, Ni; x = 0–1) nanoparticles with diameters ranging from 6.8 to 11.6 nm was synthesized by hydrothermal reaction in aqueous medium at low temperature (200 °C). Energy-dispersive X-ray microa-nalysis and inductively coupled plasma spectrometry confirms that the actual elemental compositions agree well with the nominal ones. The structural properties of obtained nanoparticles were investigated by using powder X-ray diffraction, Raman scattering, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and electron microscopy. The results demonstrate that our synthesis technique leads to the formation of chemically uniform single-phase solid solution nanoparticles with cubic spinel structure, confirming the intrinsic doping. Magnetic studies showed that, in comparison to Fe3O4, the saturation magnetization of MxFe3-xO4 (M = Mn, Ni) decreases with increasing dopant concentration, while Co-doped samples showed similar saturation magnetizations. On other hand, whereas Mn- and Ni-doped nanoparticles exhibits superparamagnetic behavior at room temperature, ferromagnetism emerges for CoxFe3-xO4 nanoparticles, which can be tuned by the level of Co doping.

Immersiveness of ubiquitous computing environments prototypes: A case study

The development of ubiquitous computing (ubicomp) environments raises several challenges in terms of their evaluation. Ubicomp virtual reality prototyping tools enable users to experience the system to be developed and are of great help to face those challenges, as they support developers in assessing the consequences of a design decision in the early phases of development. Given the situated nature of ubicomp environments, a particular issue to consider is the level of realism provided by the prototypes. This work presents a case study where two ubicomp prototypes, featuring different levels of immersion (desktop-based versus CAVE-based), were developed and compared. The goal was to determine the cost/benefits relation of both solutions, which provided better user experience results, and whether or not simpler solutions provide the same user experience results as more elaborate one.

Why should we expect worlds to collide? - Exploratory reflections departing from a case study analysis of “Jornal de Notícias” (Portugal)

As 2008 came to a close the avalanche of discourse on the demise of newspapers (and traditional media in general) grew to such an extent that consideration of any alternative scenario became almost difficult to utter. Academic articles, conferences, newspaper and magazine features were abundantly produced on thematic variations which went from ‘The End of Newspapers’ to ‘The End of Journalism’ (testing these expressions in a popular search engine we can easily get in excess of 23 thousand references for the first one and over 290 thousand references for the second one and there is even a dedicated ‘Newspaper Death Watch’ site with constant updates). The broad assumption of this production – particularly the one that identifies one possibility with the other – revolves around notions like the collapse of rigid business models, the breakdown of producer/user fidelity/trust, and the failings of a self-centred and entrenched professional (the journalist). The present seems to be enunciated as a ‘the end of days’ period, with images of irrevocable perdition funnelling our reasoning towards one single possible outcome – the imperious necessity of complete reinvention, not necessarily with the same agents.

Publicidade interactiva: os mundos virtuais ao serviço das marcas

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Audiovisual e Multimédia)