Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Aplicação da teoria das opções reais em análise de projetos estratégicos: um estudo de caso sobre o valor da opção de prosseguir com os investimentos no programa de desenvolvimento de submarinos da Marinha do Brasil

Dissertação de mestrado em Estudos de Gestão

A construção de um currículo de project-based learning: o currículo ideal e o currículo formal

O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar os resultados da análise das concepções de dois protagonistas de uma reforma curricular que está sendo implementada numa escola de engenharia. A principal característica do novo currículo é o uso de projetos e oficinas como atividades complementares a serem realizadas pelos estudantes. As atividades complementares acontecerão em paralelo ao trabalho realizado nas disciplinas sem que haja uma relação de interdisciplinaridade. O novo currículo está sendo implantado desde fevereiro de 2015. Segundo Pacheco (2005) há dois momentos, dentre outros, no processo de mudança curricular, o currículo “ideal”, determinado por dimensões epistemológica, política, econômica, ideológica, técnica, estética, e histórica e, que recebe influência direta daquele que idealiza e cria o novo currículo e, o currículo “formal” que se traduz na prática implementada na escola. São essas duas etapas estudadas nesta pesquisa. Para isso serão considerados como fontes de dados dois protagonistas, um mais ligado à concepção do currículo e outro da sua implementação, a partir dos quais se busca compreender as motivações, crenças e percepções que, por sua vez, determinam a reforma curricular. Entrevistas semiestruturadas foram utilizadas como técnica de pesquisa, com o propósito de se entender a gênese da proposta e as mudanças entre essas duas etapas. Os dados revelam que mudanças aconteceram desde a idealização até a formalização do currículo, motivadas por demandas do processo de implementação, revela ainda diferenças na visão de currículo e a motivação para romper com padrões na formação de engenheiros no Brasil.

Impact of an occupational gym program on flexibility in office workers

The problem of work-related musculoskeletal disorders is a rising concern in the companies. Thus, occupational gym has emerged as a possible solution to this problem because it leads to changes in the lifestyle by promoting health and physical activity. In this regard, this study purposes to evaluate the impact of an occupational gym program in the neck and shoulder flexibility in office workers. In order to evaluate the levels of flexibility, a universal goniometer was used for pre and post occupational gym program implementation. The program had an extension of three months, with 15 minutes sessions twice a week. The sample consisted in an intervention group comprised of 30 elements and a control group composed of 8 elements. The results suggest that there were improvements in flexibility at the cervical spine and shoulder segments levels. The increase on flexibility between the two time points in the intervention group was significant, unlike the control group that presented only slight improvements.

O ensino de teatro de animação: contribuições para construção de novos saberes e fazeres acerca da cultura de ensinar e aprender teatro

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação - Especialidade de Desenvolvimento Curricular

The greener grass: da autorrepresentação em Alanis Morissette

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Literatura - Especialidade em Teoria da Literatura

Intervention program on adolescent’s creativity representations and academic motivation

Creativity and its promotion are widespread concerns in education. However, few efforts have been made to implement intervention programs designed to promote creativity and other related aspects (e.g., academic motivation). The Future Problem Solving Program International (FPSPI), aimed for training creativity representations and creative problem solving skills in young people, has been one of the most implemented programs. This intervention’s materials and activities were adapted for Portuguese students, and a longitudinal study was conducted. The program was implemented during four months, in weekly sessions, by thirteen teachers. Teachers received previous training for the program and during the program’s implementation. Intervention participants included 77 Basic and Secondary Education students, and control participants included 78 equivalent students. Pretest-posttest measures of academic motivation and creativity representations were collected. Results suggest a significant increase, in the intervention group, in motivation and the appropriate representations of creativity. Practical implications and future research perspectives are presented.

The economic crisis in Portugal and children’s rights to non-discrimination

The consequences that arose from the ‘global economy’ have been significant in Portuguese children’s lives and we believe it is fundamental to reflect on the ongoing structuring of childhood through this global culture/ideology and the concrete implications that they have. It is also important to understand how childhood is constructed and experienced, as well as to consider the impacts of political economic conditions on children’s lives and in childhood in general, taking into account the effects brought on by public policies. The aim of this paper is to reflect on the ways through which the economic crisis affecting the general Portuguese population has impacted children in particular and promoted discrimination and a lack of opportunities in childhood. We will focus on two dimensions: first, on general data about the ongoing policies that have been reducing social rights, increasing poverty rates and threatening basic rights such as educational and health rights, to show their impact on children´s lives. Second, we will discuss some data collected with children throughout different research projects in order to characterize the meanings and impacts of the crisis in their lives from their points of view

External and internal dynamics in the EU's counter-terrorism policy: a political and legal analysis

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais

A study of risk-aware program transformation

In the trend towards tolerating hardware unreliability, accuracy is exchanged for cost savings. Running on less reliable machines, functionally correct code becomes risky and one needs to know how risk propagates so as to mitigate it. Risk estimation, however, seems to live outside the average programmer’s technical competence and core practice. In this paper we propose that program design by source-to-source transformation be risk-aware in the sense of making probabilistic faults visible and supporting equational reasoning on the probabilistic behaviour of programs caused by faults. This reasoning is carried out in a linear algebra extension to the standard, `a la Bird-Moor algebra of programming. This paper studies, in particular, the propagation of faults across standard program transformation techniques known as tupling and fusion, enabling the fault of the whole to be expressed in terms of the faults of its parts.

Historical analysis of the Brazilian cervical cancer screening program from 2006 to 2013: a time for reflection

BACKGROUND: The Cervical Cancer Database of the Brazilian National Health Service (SISCOLO) contains information regarding all cervical cytological tests and, if properly explored, can be used as a tool for monitoring and managing the cervical cancer screening program. The aim of this study was to perform a historical analysis of the cervical cancer screening program in Brazil from 2006 to 2013. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data necessary to calculate quality indicators were obtained from the SISCOLO, a Brazilian health system tool. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change. RESULTS: We observed important trends showing decreased rates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and an increased rate of rejected exams from 2009 to 2013. The index of positivity was maintained at levels below those indicated by international standards; very low frequencies of unsatisfactory cases were observed over the study period, which partially contradicts the low rate of positive cases. The number of positive cytological diagnoses was below that expected, considering that developed countries with low frequencies of cervical cancer detect more lesions annually. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of indicators from 2006 to 2013 suggests that actions must be taken to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control in Brazil.

The Portuguese programme one laptop per child: political, educational and social impact

In 2008, the XVII Portuguese Constitutional Government launched the ‘e.escolinha’ programme, within the Technological Plan for Education, which set out the distribution of a computer, called ‘Magalhães’, designed for chil-dren attending the 1st cycle of basic education. Suspended in 2011 by the XIX Government, this programme has allowed, however, almost 500 000 children to have access to a personal computer. It was expected that this political measure would “revolutionise” the national education system by bringing changes to the pedagogical practices of teachers and the learning processes of children and by achieving educational success, in general. Based on documental analysis and on a set of interviews with key decision-makers in conceiving, implementing and monitoring this governmental initiative, the fi rst part of this chapter presents and analyses the ‘e.escolinha’ initiative and the policies be-hind that governmental programme, seeking to disassemble those objectives and provide some insights into the relationship between discourses, rhetoric, and reality. After that, the chapter focuses on children’s uses and practices with the ‘Magalhães’ laptop, at school and at home. Based on the results of questionnaires fi lled in by approximately 1500 children from 32 First Cycle public schools of the municipality of Braga (north of Portugal) and also from questionnaires applied to their parents and teachers, this chapter intends to analyse the real impact of this initiative for children, family and school. It also seeks to discuss the contribution of this educational policy to children’s digital literacy and also to their own and their families’ social and digital inclusion. To understand if it represented an added value to teachers’ pedagogical practice is another of its aims. The fi ndings point out a major focus on technology and access rather than on uses and competences or even on social, educational and cultural change. In fact, a major conclusion is the existence of a strong gap between the policy and the practices, typical of a top-down policy design. This study is an integrant part of a research project titled “Navigating with ‘Magalhães’: Study on the Impact of Digital Media in Schoolchildren” conducted at the University of Minho, Portugal, financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [PTDC/CCI-COM/101381/2008] and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund [COMPETE: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009056].

Relatório de estágio na Fundação Bracara Augusta - Loja Europa Jovem, com ênfase no caso de estudo sobre os impactos sócio económicos do Programa Juventude em Ação 2007-2013 no Município de Braga

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Políticas Comunitárias e Cooperação Territorial