Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using Text Mining and latent Dirichlet allocation

telligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in or- der to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelli- gence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining proce- dure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or de- nial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of ar- ticles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

Development of autonomous maintenance in a furniture company

This article presents a work performed in the maintenance department of a furniture company in Portugal, in order to develop and implement autonomous maintenance. The main objective of the project was related to the objective to increase and make effective the autonomous maintenance tasks performed by production operators, and in this way avoiding unplanned downtime due to equipment failures. Although some autonomous maintenance tasks were already carried out within the company, a preliminary study revealed weaknesses in the application of this tool. In the initial phase of this pilot project, the main problems encountered at the level of autonomous maintenance were related to the lack of time to carry out these tasks, showing that the stipulated procedures were far from the real needs of the company. To solve these problems a pilot project was conducted, making several changes in the performance of autonomous maintenance tasks, making them standard and adapted to reality of each production line. There was a general improvement in the factory indicators, and essentially there was a behavioral change, since the operators felt that their opinions were taking into account and began to understand the importance of small tasks performed by them.

Hand gesture recognition for human computer interaction : a comparative study of different image features

Hand gesture recognition for human computer interaction, being a natural way of human computer interaction, is an area of active research in computer vision and machine learning. This is an area with many different possible applications, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with robots/systems interfaces, without the need for extra devices. So, the primary goal of gesture recognition research is to create systems, which can identify specific human gestures and use them to convey information or for device control. For that, vision-based hand gesture interfaces require fast and extremely robust hand detection, and gesture recognition in real time. In this study we try to identify hand features that, isolated, respond better in various situations in human-computer interaction. The extracted features are used to train a set of classifiers with the help of RapidMiner in order to find the best learner. A dataset with our own gesture vocabulary consisted of 10 gestures, recorded from 20 users was created for later processing. Experimental results show that the radial signature and the centroid distance are the features that when used separately obtain better results, with an accuracy of 91% and 90,1% respectively obtained with a Neural Network classifier. These to methods have also the advantage of being simple in terms of computational complexity, which make them good candidates for real-time hand gesture recognition.

Hand gesture recognition system based in computer vision and machine learning

"Lecture notes in computational vision and biomechanics series, ISSN 2212-9391, vol. 19"

Generic system for human-computer gesture interaction: applications on sign language recognition and robotic soccer refereeing

Hand gestures are a powerful way for human communication, with lots of potential applications in the area of human computer interaction. Vision-based hand gesture recognition techniques have many proven advantages compared with traditional devices, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with electronic devices. This work proposes a generic system architecture based in computer vision and machine learning, able to be used with any interface for human-computer interaction. The proposed solution is mainly composed of three modules: a pre-processing and hand segmentation module, a static gesture interface module and a dynamic gesture interface module. The experiments showed that the core of visionbased interaction systems could be the same for all applications and thus facilitate the implementation. For hand posture recognition, a SVM (Support Vector Machine) model was trained and used, able to achieve a final accuracy of 99.4%. For dynamic gestures, an HMM (Hidden Markov Model) model was trained for each gesture that the system could recognize with a final average accuracy of 93.7%. The proposed solution as the advantage of being generic enough with the trained models able to work in real-time, allowing its application in a wide range of human-machine applications. To validate the proposed framework two applications were implemented. The first one is a real-time system able to interpret the Portuguese Sign Language. The second one is an online system able to help a robotic soccer game referee judge a game in real time.

Vision-based portuguese sign language recognition system

Vision-based hand gesture recognition is an area of active current research in computer vision and machine learning. Being a natural way of human interaction, it is an area where many researchers are working on, with the goal of making human computer interaction (HCI) easier and natural, without the need for any extra devices. So, the primary goal of gesture recognition research is to create systems, which can identify specific human gestures and use them, for example, to convey information. For that, vision-based hand gesture interfaces require fast and extremely robust hand detection, and gesture recognition in real time. Hand gestures are a powerful human communication modality with lots of potential applications and in this context we have sign language recognition, the communication method of deaf people. Sign lan- guages are not standard and universal and the grammars differ from country to coun- try. In this paper, a real-time system able to interpret the Portuguese Sign Language is presented and described. Experiments showed that the system was able to reliably recognize the vowels in real-time, with an accuracy of 99.4% with one dataset of fea- tures and an accuracy of 99.6% with a second dataset of features. Although the im- plemented solution was only trained to recognize the vowels, it is easily extended to recognize the rest of the alphabet, being a solid foundation for the development of any vision-based sign language recognition user interface system.

Generic system for human-computer gesture interaction

Hand gestures are a powerful way for human communication, with lots of potential applications in the area of human computer interaction. Vision-based hand gesture recognition techniques have many proven advantages compared with traditional devices, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with electronic devices. This work proposes a generic system architecture based in computer vision and machine learning, able to be used with any interface for humancomputer interaction. The proposed solution is mainly composed of three modules: a pre-processing and hand segmentation module, a static gesture interface module and a dynamic gesture interface module. The experiments showed that the core of vision-based interaction systems can be the same for all applications and thus facilitate the implementation. In order to test the proposed solutions, three prototypes were implemented. For hand posture recognition, a SVM model was trained and used, able to achieve a final accuracy of 99.4%. For dynamic gestures, an HMM model was trained for each gesture that the system could recognize with a final average accuracy of 93.7%. The proposed solution as the advantage of being generic enough with the trained models able to work in real-time, allowing its application in a wide range of human-machine applications.

A novel approach for honey pollen profile assessment using an electronic tongue and chemometric tools

Nowadays the main honey producing countries require accurate labeling of honey before commercialization, including floral classification. Traditionally, this classification is made by melissopalynology analysis, an accurate but time-consuming task requiring laborious sample pre-treatment and high-skilled technicians. In this work the potential use of a potentiometric electronic tongue for pollinic assessment is evaluated, using monofloral and polyfloral honeys. The results showed that after splitting honeys according to color (white, amber and dark), the novel methodology enabled quantifying the relative percentage of the main pollens (Castanea sp., Echium sp., Erica sp., Eucaliptus sp., Lavandula sp., Prunus sp., Rubus sp. and Trifolium sp.). Multiple linear regression models were established for each type of pollen, based on the best sensors sub-sets selected using the simulated annealing algorithm. To minimize the overfitting risk, a repeated K-fold cross-validation procedure was implemented, ensuring that at least 10-20% of the honeys were used for internal validation. With this approach, a minimum average determination coefficient of 0.91 ± 0.15 was obtained. Also, the proposed technique enabled the correct classification of 92% and 100% of monofloral and polyfloral honeys, respectively. The quite satisfactory performance of the novel procedure for quantifying the relative pollen frequency may envisage its applicability for honey labeling and geographical origin identification. Nevertheless, this approach is not a full alternative to the traditional melissopalynologic analysis; it may be seen as a practical complementary tool for preliminary honey floral classification, leaving only problematic cases for pollinic evaluation.

Triple negative breast cancer: nanosolutions for a big challenge

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a particular immunopathological subtype of breast cancer that lacks expression of estrogen and progesterone receptors (ER/PR) and amplification of the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) gene. Characterized by aggressive and metastatic phenotypes and high rates of relapse, TNBC is the only breast cancer subgroup still lacking effective therapeutic options, thus presenting the worst prognosis. The development of targeted therapies, as well as early diagnosis methods, is vital to ensure an adequate and timely therapeutic intervention in patients with TNBC. This review intends to discuss potentially emerging approaches for the diagnosis and treatment of TNBC patients, with a special focus on nano-based solutions that actively target these particular tumors.

Effect of variables on the thickness of an edible coating applied on frozen fish establishment of the concept of safe dipping time

Glazing is a technique used to retard fish deterioration during storage. This work focuses on the study of distinct variables (fish temperature, coating temperature, dipping time) that affect the thickness of edible coatings (water glazing and 1.5% chitosan) applied on frozen fish. Samples of frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at -15, -20, and -25 °C were either glazed with water at 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5 °C or coated with 1.5% chitosan solution at 2.5, 5 or 8 °C, by dipping during 10 to 60 s. For both water and chitosan coatings, lowering the salmon and coating solution temperatures resulted in an increase of coating thickness. At the same conditions, higher thickness values were obtained when using chitosan (max. thickness of 1.41±0.05 mm) compared to water (max. thickness of 0.84±0.03 mm). Freezing temperature and crystallization heat were found to be lower for 1.5% chitosan solution than for water, thus favoring phase change. Salmon temperature profiles allowed determining, for different dipping conditions, whether the salmon temperature was within food safety standards to prevent the growth of pathogenic microorganisms. The concept of safe dipping time is proposed to define how long a frozen product can be dipped into a solution without the temperature raising to a point where it can constitute a hazard.

Candida bracarensis: Evaluation of virulence factors and its tolerance to Amphotericin B and Fluconazole

Candida bracarensis is an uncommon Candida species found during an epidemiological study of candidiasis performed in Braga, Portugal. Initially, it was identified as C. glabrata, but recently detailed analyses pointed out their differences. So, little information is still available about C. bracarensis virulence factors and antifungal susceptibilities. Therefore, the main goal of this work is to evaluate the ability of C. bracarensis to form biofilms, to produce hydrolytic enzymes (proteases, phospholipases and hemolysins), as well as its susceptibility to amphotericin B and fluconazole. It was shown, for the first time, that all C. bracarensis strains were able to form biofilms and display proteinase and hemolytic activities. Moreover, although planktonic cells presented antifungal susceptibility, amphotericin B and fluconazole were unable to inhibit biofilm formation and eradicate pre-formed biofilms. Due to the propensity of C. bracarensis to display antifungal resistance and virulence attributes, the control of these emerging pathogens is recommended.

Gender norms in Portuguese college sudents' judgments in familial homicides: bad men and mad women

The gender of the offender has been proved to be an important factor in judicial sentencing. In this study, we analyze the judgments of College students regarding perpetrators of familial homicides to evaluate the presence of these gender norms and biases in the larger society. The sample included 303 college students (54.8% female) enrolled in several social sciences and engineering courses. Participants were asked to read 12 vignettes based on real crimes taken from Portuguese newspapers. Half were related to infanticide, and half were related to intimate partner homicide. The sex of the offender was orthogonally manipulated to the type of crime. The results show that gender had an important impact on sentences, with males being more harshly penalized by reasons of perversity and women less penalized by reason of mental disorders. In addition, filicide was more heavily penalized than was intimate partner homicide. The results also revealed a tendency toward a retributive conception of punishment. We discuss how gender norms in justice seem to be embedded in society as well as the need for intervention against the punitive tendency of this population.

Comparison of single and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for robust link-state routing

Traffic Engineering (TE) approaches are increasingly impor- tant in network management to allow an optimized configuration and resource allocation. In link-state routing, the task of setting appropriate weights to the links is both an important and a challenging optimization task. A number of different approaches has been put forward towards this aim, including the successful use of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs). In this context, this work addresses the evaluation of three distinct EAs, a single and two multi-objective EAs, in two tasks related to weight setting optimization towards optimal intra-domain routing, knowing the network topology and aggregated traffic demands and seeking to mini- mize network congestion. In both tasks, the optimization considers sce- narios where there is a dynamic alteration in the state of the system, in the first considering changes in the traffic demand matrices and in the latter considering the possibility of link failures. The methods will, thus, need to simultaneously optimize for both conditions, the normal and the altered one, following a preventive TE approach towards robust configurations. Since this can be formulated as a bi-objective function, the use of multi-objective EAs, such as SPEA2 and NSGA-II, came nat- urally, being those compared to a single-objective EA. The results show a remarkable behavior of NSGA-II in all proposed tasks scaling well for harder instances, and thus presenting itself as the most promising option for TE in these scenarios.