Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Comprehensive comparison of a current-source and a voltage-source converter for three-phase EV fast battery chargers

This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of a current-source converter and a voltage-source converter for three-phase electric vehicle (EV) fast battery chargers. Taking into account that the current-source converter (CSC) is a natural buck-type converter, the output voltage can assume a wide range of values, which varies between zero and the maximum instantaneous value of the power grid phase-to-phase voltage. On the other hand, taking into account that the voltage-source converter (VSC) is a natural boost-type converter, the output voltage is always greater than the maximum instantaneous value of the power grid phase-to-phase voltage, and consequently, it is necessary to use a dc-dc buck-type converter for applications as EV fast battery chargers. Along the paper is described in detail the principle of operation of both the CSC and the VSC for EV fast chargers, as well as the main equations of the power theory and current control strategies. The comparison between both converters is mainly established in terms of the total harmonic distortion of the grid current and the estimated efficiency for a range of operation between 10 kW and 50 kW.

Three-phase three-level current-source converter for EVs fast battery charging systems

This paper presents a three-phase three-level fast battery charger for electric vehicles (EVs) based in a current-source converter (CSC). Compared with the traditional voltage-source converters used for fast battery chargers, the CSC can be seen as a natural buck-type converter, i.e., the output voltage can assume a wide range of values, which varies between zero and the maximum instantaneous value of the power grid phase-to-phase voltage. Moreover, using the CSC it is not necessary to use a dc-dc back-end converter in the battery side, and it is also possible to control the grid current in order to obtain a sinusoidal waveform, and in phase with the power grid voltage (unitary power factor). Along the paper is described in detail the proposed CSC for EVs fast battery charging systems: the circuit topology, the power control theory, the current control strategy and the grid synchronization algorithm. Several simulation results of the EV fast battery charger operating with a maximum power of 50 kW are presented.

A novel architecture of a bidirectional bridgeless interleaved converter for EV battery chargers

This paper presents a novel architecture of a bidirectional bridgeless interleaved converter for battery chargers of electric vehicles (EVs). The proposed converter is composed by two power stages: an ac-dc converter that is used to interface the power grid and the dc-link, and a dc-dc converter that is used to interface the dc-link and the batteries. The ac-dc converter is an interleaved bridgeless bidirectional boost-type converter and the dc-dc converter is a bidirectional buck-boost-type converter. The proposed converter works with sinusoidal grid current and with high power factor for all operating power levels, and in both grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operation modes. In the paper is described in detail the proposed converter for EV battery chargers: the circuit topology, the principle of operation, the power control theory, and the current control strategy. Several simulation results for both G2V and V2G operation modes are presented.

A novel concept of unidirectional bridgeless combined boost-buck converter for EV battery chargers

This paper presents a novel concept of unidirectional bridgeless combined boost-buck converter for electric vehicles (EVs) battery chargers. The proposed converter is composed by two power stages: an ac-dc front-end converter used to interface the power grid and the dc-link, and a dc-dc back-end converter used to interface the dc-link and the batteries. The ac-dc converter is a bridgeless boost-type converter and the dc-dc converter is an interleaved buck-type converter. The proposed converter operates with sinusoidal grid current and unitary power factor for all operating power levels. Along the paper is described in detail the proposed converter for EV battery chargers: the circuit topology, the different stages describing the principle of operation, the power control theory, and the current control strategy, for both converters. Along the paper are presented several simulation results for a maximum power of 3.5 kW.

Predictive control of a current-source inverter for solar photovoltaic grid interface

Solar photovoltaic systems are an increasing option for electricity production, since they produce electrical energy from a clean renewable energy resource, and over the years, as a result of the research, their efficiency has been increasing. For the interface between the dc photovoltaic solar array and the ac electrical grid is necessary the use of an inverter (dc-ac converter), which should be optimized to extract the maximum power from the photovoltaic solar array. In this paper is presented a solution based on a current-source inverter (CSI) using continuous control set model predictive control (CCS-MPC). All the power circuits and respective control systems are described in detail along the paper and were tested and validated performing computer simulations. The paper shows the simulation results and are drawn several conclusions.

In-plane stiffness of timber floors strengthened with CLT

Five full-scale timber floors were tested in order to analyse the in-plane behaviour of these structural systems. The main objective was an assessment of the effectiveness of in-plane strengthening using cross-laminated timber (CLT). To this end, one unstrengthened specimen (original), one specimen strengthened with a second layer of floorboards, two specimens strengthened with three CLT panels, and one specimen strengthened with two CLT panels, were tested. A numerical analysis was then performed in order to analyse the composite behaviour of the timber floors in more detail. Due to its importance as regards composite behaviour, the first phase of the experimental programme was composed of push-out tests on specimens representing the shear connection between the timber beams and the CLT panels. This paper describes the tests performed and the numerical modelling applied to evaluate the composite behaviour of the strengthened timber floors. The use of CLT panels is revealed to be an effective way to increase the in-plane stiffness of timber floors, through which the behaviour of the composite structure can be significantly changed, depending on the connection applied, or modified as required.

Pesquisa experimental para avaliação da eficiência da fibra de aço na resistência à punção de lajes lisas reforçadas simetricamente

O presente artigo é dedicado à avaliação experimental da eficiência do reforço com fibra de aço em termos da resistência à punção de lajes lisa carregadas simetricamente. Para este fim, oito lajes de 2550 x 2550 x 150 mm3 foram ensaiadas até a ruína, onde se investigou a influência do consumo de fibras (0, 60, 75 e 90 kg/m3) e da resistência do concreto (50 e 70 MPa). Duas lajes de referência, sem fibras, uma para cada classe de resistência do concreto, e uma laje para cada consumo de fibra e para cada classe de resistência do concreto compuseram o programa experimental. Todas as lajes foram armadas à flexão com barras de aço (armadura convencional) de forma a garantir a ruína por punção das lajes de referência. O único reforço transversal foi garantido pelas fibras de aço hooked ends com comprimento e diâmetro de 37 e 0,55 mm, respectivamente, e resistência à tração de aproximadamente 1100 MPa. Os resultados revelaram que as fibras de aço são muito eficientes em converter uma ruína frágil por cisalhamento em uma ruína dúctil por flexão, aprimorando ambos, carga de ruptura e deslocamento. Neste artigo o programa experimental é abordado em detalhe e os principais resultados são apresentados e discutidos.

Bond of NSM FRP strengthened concrete: round robin test initiative

Despite the extensive research that has been conducted on the debonding behaviour of FRP strengthening systems, no standard methodology has been yet established on its experimental characterization. In this context, to assess the performance and reliability of small scale testing on NSM (near surface mounted) FRP strengthening systems, an experimental program was carried out on a series of nine NSM FRP strengthening systems, in the framework of an international Round Robin Testing (RRT). Eleven laboratories and seven manufacturers and suppliers participated in this extensive international exercise, which regarded both NSM and EBR FRP strengthening systems. Test results obtained for the NSM systems by the participating laboratories are discussed and compared in this paper to investigate the feasibility of the adopted single/double pulling shear test method, to investigate the mechanism of bond between NSM FRP reinforcement and concrete, and to investigate the level of variability obtained between the participating laboratories testing the same material batches. It is concluded that the tested variants in the adopted single/double shear pulling test have a significant influence, stressing the importance of the level of detail of standardized test protocols for bond verification. On overall, given the variants included in this study, the obtained variation in bond stress-slip behaviour between the laboratories remained fairly limited.

A model to simulate the moment-rotation and crack width of FRC members reinforced with longitudinal bars

The present work describes a model for the determination of the moment–rotation relationship of a cross section of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) elements that also include longitudinal bars for the flexural reinforcement (R/FRC). Since a stress–crack width relationship (σ–w)(σ–w) is used to model the post-cracking behavior of a FRC, the σ–w directly obtained from tensile tests, or derived from inverse analysis applied to the results obtained in three-point notched beam bending tests, can be adopted in this approach. For a more realistic assessment of the crack opening, a bond stress versus slip relationship is assumed to simulate the bond between longitudinal bars and surrounding FRC. To simulate the compression behavior of the FRC, a shear friction model is adopted based on the physical interpretation of the post-peak compression softening behavior registered in experimental tests. By allowing the formation of a compressive FRC wedge delimited by shear band zones, the concept of concrete crushing failure mode in beams failing in bending is reinterpreted. By using the moment–rotation relationship, an algorithm was developed to determine the force–deflection response of statically determinate R/FRC elements. The model is described in detail and its good predictive performance is demonstrated by using available experimental data. Parametric studies were executed to evidence the influence of relevant parameters of the model on the serviceability and ultimate design conditions of R/FRC elements failing in bending.

A study on the performance of technology transfer units

Universities are increasingly institutionalizing activities related to technology transfer and one of the main institutional mechanisms that has emerged is the “technology transfer unit” (TTU). Many of them are focusing their activities on the management of the university intellectual property. Studies have investigated factors that seem to affect their performance, but few have looked in detail at internal procedures and techniques that are used in their processes related to technology evaluation and licensing. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of some of the several steps that comprises the processes regarding technology evaluation and licensing, providing an analysis of the critical issues that affect each step of the process. A review of the literature was made, complemented with interviews to seven university TTUs, which was used as a check and a complement to the literature review and as way of perceiving from an insider perspective, the problems and issues that this paper wants to emphasize and to state clearly.

Application of near surface mounted (NSM) strengthening technique to traditional timber frame walls

Timber frame buildings are well known as an efficient seismic resistant structure popular all over the world not only due to their seismic performance, but also to their low cost and the strength they offer. These constructions still exist today and it is important to be able to preserve them, so a better knowledge on their behaviour is sought. Furthermore, historic technologies could be used even in modern constructions to build seismic resistant buildings using more natural materials with lesser costs. A great rehabilitation effort is being carried out on this type of buildings, as their neglect has led to decay or their change in use and alterations to the structure has led to the need to retrofit such buildings; only recently studies on their behaviour have become available and only a few of them address the issue of possible strengthening techniques for this kind of walls. In this scope, an innovative retrofitting technique (near surface mounted steel flat bars) is proposed and validated on traditional timber frame walls based on an extensive experimental program. The results of the static cyclic tests on distinct wall typologies retrofitted with the NSM technique are herein presented and discussed in detail. The main features on deformation, lateral stiffness, lateral resistance and seismic performance indexes are analysed

Traditional timber frame walls: mechanical behavior analysis and retrofitting

Timber frame construction is characteristic of several historic city centres as well as of vernacular architecture in several countries around the world, either motivated by the availability of materials and construction traditions or by the need of reducing the seismic vulnerability of buildings, namely in south European countries, where this construction technique was adopted for seismic-resistance purposes. From past earthquakes, it has been seen that timber frame construction can be viewed as an interesting technology as it has exhibited a very reasonable behaviour when compared to other traditional construction techniques such as masonry walls. This chapter provides an overview of the main insights on the seismic performance of timber frame buildings from the evidences of past earthquakes and provides the main results of recent research focused on the in-plane cyclic behavior of timber frame walls with distinct geometrical configurations. Additionally, the main seismic performance indexes of timber frame walls, both unreinforced and retrofitted, are presented and discussed in detail.

Ergonomic evaluation of office workplaces with Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA)

The regular use of the computer in the office contributed to the appearance of many risk factors related with work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSD) such as maintaining static sitting postures for long time and awkward postures of the head, neck and upper limbs, leading to increased muscle activity in the cervical spine and shoulders. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of risk factors for WRMSD in an office using the Rapid Assessment Office Strain method (ROSA). Based on the results of this ergonomic evaluation, an occupational gym program was designed and implemented. Thirty-eight workplaces were evaluated using the observation of the tasks and pictures records in order to characterize those tasks in more detail. The ROSA tool was applied by an observer, who selected the appropriate score based on the worker's posture as well as the time spent in each posture. Scores were recorded for the sections of the method, specifically Chair, Monitor and Mouse and Keyboard and Telephone. The scores were recorded in a sheet developed for the method. The mean ROSA final score was 3.61 ± 0.64, for Chair section was 3.45 ± 0.55, to Monitor and Telephone section was 3.11 ± 0.61, and to Mouse and Keyboard section was 2.11 ± 0.31. The results led to understand that the analyzed tasks represent situations of risk of discomfort and, according to the methods guidelines, further research and modifications of the workplace may be necessary. It should be emphasized that these scores may not be related to the poor available equipment but with the need to optimize their use by the workers. It was noticed also that the interaction of workers with the tasks and the adopted sitting posture at the computer throughout the day have effects at a muscular level, essentially for the cervical area and shoulders. ROSA tool is an useful and easy method to assess several risk factors associated with WRMSD, also allowing the design of specific occupational gym programs.

Slip flows of Newtonian and viscoelastic fluids in a 4:1 contraction

This work presents a numerical study of the 4:1 planar contraction flow of a viscoelastic fluid described by the simplified Phan-Thien–Tanner model under the influence of slip boundary conditions at the channel walls. The linear Navier slip law was considered with the dimensionless slip coefficient varying in the range ½0; 4500. The simulations were carried out for a small constant Reynolds number of 0.04 and Deborah numbers (De) varying between 0 and 5. Convergence could not be achieved for higher values of the Deborah number, especially for large values of the slip coefficient, due to the large stress gradients near the singularity of the reentrant corner. Increasing the slip coefficient leads to the formation of two vortices, a corner and a lip vortex. The lip vortex grows with increasing slip until it absorbs the corner vortex, creating a single large vortex that continues to increase in size and intensity. In the range De = 3–5 no lip vortex was formed. The flow is characterized in detail for De ¼ 1 as function of the slip coefficient, while for the remaining De only the main features are shown for specific values of the slip coefficient.