Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Climatic variability in Central Indian Himalaya during the last similar to 1800 years: Evidence from a high resolution speleothem record

Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Intracellular concentrations of Ca2+ modulate the strength of signal and alter the outcomes of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 (CD152)-CD80/CD86 interactions in CD4(+) T lymphocytes

The costimulatory receptors CD28 and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen (CTLA)-4 and their ligands, CD80 and CD86, are expressed on T lymphocytes; however, their functional roles during T cell-T cell interactions are not well known. The consequences of blocking CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions on purified mouse CD4(+) T cells were studied in the context of the strength of signal (SOS). CD4(+) T cells were activated with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and different concentrations of a Ca2+ ionophore, Ionomycin (I), or a sarcoplasmic Ca2+ ATPase inhibitor, Thapsigargin (TG). Increasing concentrations of I or TG increased the amount of interleukin (IL)-2, reflecting the conversion of a low to a high SOS. During activation with PMA and low amounts of I, intracellular concentrations of calcium ([Ca2+](i)) were greatly reduced upon CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 blockade. Further experiments demonstrated that CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions reduced cell cycling upon activation with PMA and high amounts of I or TG (high SOS) but the opposite occurred with PMA and low amounts of I or TG (low SOS). These results were confirmed by surface T-cell receptor (TCR)-CD3 signalling using a low SOS, for example soluble anti-CD3, or a high SOS, for example plate-bound anti-CD3. Also, CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions enhanced the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Studies with catalase revealed that H2O2 was required for IL-2 production and cell cycle progression during activation with a low SOS. However, the high amounts of ROS produced during activation with a high SOS reduced cell cycle progression. Taken together, these results indicate that [Ca2+](i) and ROS play important roles in the modulation of T-cell responses by CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement using Re-configurable Ring Oscillator

We report a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and non-inverting) in its unmodified form using digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). Solving a system of linear equations with different configuration setting of the RO gives delay of an individual gate. Experimental results from a test chip in 65nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1pS accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identical inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 26% indicating the large impact of local or within-die variations.

Hydroclimatic influence of large-scale circulation on the variability of reservoir inflow

In this study, the nature of basin-scale hydroclimatic association for Indian subcontinent is investigated. It is found that, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also equally important in addition to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), owing to the geographical location of Indian subcontinent. The hydroclimatic association of the variation of monsoon inflow into the Hirakud reservoir in India is investigated using ENSO and EQUatorial INdian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO, the atmospheric part of Indian Ocean Dipole mode) as the large-scale circulation information from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean regions respectively. Individual associations of ENSO & EQUINOO indices with inflow into Hirakud reservoir are also assessed and found to be weak. However, the association of inflows into Hirakud reservoir with the composite index (CI) of ENSO and EQUINOO is quite strong. Thus, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also important apart form the ENSO. The potential of the combined information of ENSO and EQUINOO for predicting the inflows during monsoon is also investigated with promising results. The results of this study will be helpful to water resources managers due to fact that the nature of monsoon inflow is becoming available as an early prediction.

Dynamic analysis of small signal voltage instability decoupled from angle instability

This paper presents a methodology for dynamic analysis of short term small signal voltage instability in a multi-machine power system. The formulation of the problem is done by decoupling the angle instability from the voltage instability. The method is based on the incremental reactive current flow network (IRCFN), where the incremental reactive current injection at each bus is related to the incremental voltage magnitude at all the buses. Small signal stability using the eigenvalue analysis is illustrated utilizing a single-machine load bus (SMLB) and three-machine system examples. The role of a static var compensator (SVC) at the load bus is also examined.

Spatial Variability of the Depth of Weathered and Engineering Bedrock using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave Method

In this paper an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial variability of the depth of weathered and engineering bedrock in Bangalore, south India using Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) survey. One-dimensional MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and shear-wave velocities are measured. Using velocity profiles, the depth of weathered rock and engineering rock surface levels has been determined. Based on the literature, shear-wave velocity of 330 ± 30 m/s for weathered rock or soft rock and 760 ± 60 m/s for engineering rock or hard rock has been considered. Depths corresponding to these velocity ranges are evaluated with respect to ground contour levels and top surface levels have been mapped with an interpolation technique using natural neighborhood. The depth of weathered rock varies from 1 m to about 21 m. In 58 testing locations, only 42 locations reached the depths which have a shear-wave velocity of more than 760 ± 60 m/s. The depth of engineering rock is evaluated from these data and it varies from 1 m to about 50 m. Further, these rock depths have been compared with a subsurface profile obtained from a two-dimensional (2-D) MASW survey at 20 locations and a few selected available bore logs from the deep geotechnical boreholes.

Programmable digital signal averager.

A high speed digital signal averager with programmable features for the sampling period, for the number of channels and for the number of sweeps is described. The system implements a stable averaging algorithm (Deadroff and Trimble 1968) to provide a stable, calibrated display. The performance of the instrument has been evaluated for the reduction of random noise and for comb-filter action. Special uses of the instrument as a box-car integrator and as a transient recorder are also indicated.

Fibre diffraction of lithium DNA shows structural variability and deviation from a regular helical structure for the B-form

Recently, reports have appeared which show structural variations in B-DNA and indicate deviations from a uniform helical structure. We report for the first time that these indications are also present in the B-form fibre diffraction patterns for the lithium salt of natural DNA. We have used an improved method of controlling the salt concentration in the fibres. Our results are based on the appearance and disappearance of meridional reflections on different layer lines depending upon the salt.

Non-stationary signal analysis by least mean fourth (LMF) adaptive algorithm

A modified least mean fourth (LMF) adaptive algorithm applicable to non-stationary signals is presented. The performance of the proposed algorithm is studied by simulation for non-stationarities in bandwidth, centre frequency and gain of a stochastic signal. These non-stationarities are in the form of linear, sinusoidal and jump variations of the parameters. The proposed LMF adaptation is found to have better parameter tracking capability than the LMS adaptation for the same speed of convergence.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement Using Reconfigurable Ring Oscillator

We report the design and characterization of a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and noninverting) in its unmodified form. The test circuit comprises of digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). The gate under test is embedded in each stage of the ring oscillator. A system of linear equations is then formed with different configuration settings of the RO, relating the individual gate delay to the measured period of the RO, whose solution gives the delay of the individual gates. Experimental results from a test chip in 65-nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1 ps accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identicall inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 28% indicating the large impact of local variations. As a demonstration of this technique, we have studied delay variation with poly-pitch, length of diffusion (LOD) and different orientations of layout in silicon. The proposed technique is quite suitable for early process characterization, monitoring mature process in manufacturing and correlating model-to-hardware.

Comments and Correspondence on a programmable digital signal averager

In a recent paper, Srinivasan et al (1980) have described a programmable digital signal averager with facility for programming the sampling period, number of channels and number of sweeps. We have examined this paper in some detail and find that some points need clarification.

Simplified algorithms based on Haar transforms for signal recognition in protective relays

This letter presents the development of simplified algorithms based on Haar functions for signal extraction in relaying signals. These algorithms, being computationally simple, are better suited for microprocessor-based power system protection relaying. They provide accurate estimates of the signal amplitude and phase.

Crystallographic and modelling studies on Mycobacterium tuberculosis RuvA: Additional role of RuvB-binding domain and inter species variability

RuvA, along with RuvB, is involved in branch migration of heteroduplex DNA in homologous recombination. The structures of three new crystal forms of RuvA from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MtRuvA) have been determined. The RuvB-binding domain is cleaved off in one of them. Detailed models of the complexes of octameric RuvA from different species with the Holliday junction have also been constructed. A thorough examination of the structures presented here and those reported earlier brings to light the hitherto unappreciated role of the RuvB-binding domain in determining inter-domain orientation and oligomerization. These structures also permit an exploration of the interspecies variability of structural features such as oligomerization and the conformation of the loop that carries the acidic pin, in terms of amino acid substitutions. These models emphasize the additional role of the RuvB-binding domain in Holliday junction binding. This role along with its role in oligomerization could have important biological implications.

Signal Characterization using Fractal Dimension

Fractal Dimensions (FD) are popular metrics for characterizing signals. They are used as complexity measuresin signal analysis applications in various fields. However, proper interpretation of such analyses has not been thoroughly addressed. In this paper, we study the effect of various signal properties on FD and interpret results in terms of classical signal processing concepts such as amplitude, frequency,number of harmonics, noise power and signal bandwidth. We have used Higuchi’s method for estimating FDs. This study helps in gaining a better understanding of the FD complexity measure for various signal parameters. Our results indicate that FD is a useful metric in estimating various signal properties. As an application of the FD measure in real world scenario, the FD is used as a feature in discriminating seizures from seizure free intervals in intracranial EEG data recordings and the FD feature has given good discrimination performance.