Estimation of time variant reliability of randomly parametered non-linear vibrating systems

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of randomly parametered and randomly driven nonlinear vibrating systems is considered. The study combines two Monte Carlo variance reduction strategies into a single framework to tackle the problem. The first of these strategies is based on the application of the Girsanov transformation to account for the randomness in dynamic excitations, and the second approach is fashioned after the subset simulation method to deal with randomness in system parameters. Illustrative examples include study of single/multi degree of freedom linear/non-linear inelastic randomly parametered building frame models driven by stationary/non-stationary, white/filtered white noise support acceleration. The estimated reliability measures are demonstrated to compare well with results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

A Survey Of Software Dependability

This paper presents on overview of the issues in precisely defining, specifying and evaluating the dependability of software, particularly in the context of computer controlled process systems. Dependability is intended to be a generic term embodying various quality factors and is useful for both software and hardware. While the developments in quality assurance and reliability theories have proceeded mostly in independent directions for hardware and software systems, we present here the case for developing a unified framework of dependability—a facet of operational effectiveness of modern technological systems, and develop a hierarchical systems model helpful in clarifying this view. In the second half of the paper, we survey the models and methods available for measuring and improving software reliability. The nature of software “bugs”, the failure history of the software system in the various phases of its lifecycle, the reliability growth in the development phase, estimation of the number of errors remaining in the operational phase, and the complexity of the debugging process have all been considered to varying degrees of detail. We also discuss the notion of software fault-tolerance, methods of achieving the same, and the status of other measures of software dependability such as maintainability, availability and safety.

Improved Algorithms for Reservoir Capacity Calculation Incorporating Storage-Dependent Losses and Reliability Norm

Two algorithms that improve upon the sequent-peak procedure for reservoir capacity calculation are presented. The first incorporates storage-dependent losses (like evaporation losses) exactly as the standard linear programming formulation does. The second extends the first so as to enable designing with less than maximum reliability even when allowable shortfall in any failure year is also specified. Together, the algorithms provide a more accurate, flexible and yet fast method of calculating the storage capacity requirement in preliminary screening and optimization models.

Seismic reliability assessment of external stability of reinforced soil walls using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper presents a method for the evaluation of external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquakes in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. The seismic reliability of the wall is evaluated by considering the different possible failure modes such as sliding along the base, overturning about the toe point of the wall, bearing capacity and the eccentricity of the resultant force. The analysis is performed considering properties of the reinforced backfill, foundation soil below the base of the wall, length of the geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as shear wave and primary wave velocity as random variables. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain stability against four modes of failure by targeting various component reliability indices is obtained. Differences between pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methods are clearly highlighted in the paper. A complete analysis of pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methodologies shows that the pseudodynamic method results in realistic design values for the length of geosynthetic reinforcement under earthquake conditions.

Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach

The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.

Reliability Optimization using SLUMT

This paper is concerned with the reliability optimization of a spatially redundant system, subject to various constraints, by using nonlinear programming. The constrained optimization problem is converted into a sequence of unconstrained optimization problems by using a penalty function. The new problem is then solved by the conjugate gradient method. The advantages of this method are highlighted.

Performance reliability of high-maintenance systems

The time–history of the performance of a system is treated as a stochastic corrective process, in which deterioration due to aging is counteracted at brief maintenance checks. Using a diffusion approximation for the deterioration, simple models are proposed for describing maintenance either by component replacement or by performance restoration. Equilibrium solutions of the models show that the performance has a probability distribution with exponential tails: the uncritical use of Gaussians can grossly underestimate the probability of poor performance. The proposed models are supported by recent observational evidence on aircraft track-keeping errors, which are shown to follow the modified exponential distribution derived here. The analysis also brings out the relation between the deterioration characteristics of the system and the intensity of the maintenance effort required to achieve a given performance reliability.

Time Domain Characteristics of Electrical Measures for a Piezoelectric Thin Film to Identify Defects in the Substrate

A reduced 3D continuum model of dynamic piezoelectricity in a thin-film surface-bonded to the substrate/host is presented in this article. While employing large area flexible thin piezoelectric films for novel applications in device/diagnostics, the feasibility of the proposed model in sensing the surface and/or sub-surface defects is demonstrated through simulations - which involve metallic beams with cracks and composite beam with delaminations of various sizes. We have introduced a set of electrical measures to capture the severity of the damage in the existing structures. Characteristics of these electrical measures in terms of the potential difference and its spatial gradients are illustrated in the time domain. Sensitivity studies of the proposed measures in terms of the defected areas and their region of occurence relative to the sensing film are reported. The simulations' results for electrical measures for damaged hosts/substrates are compared with those due to undamaged hosts/substrates, which show monotonicity with high degree of sensitivity to variations in the damage parameters.

Optimum Design of Bridge Abutments under Seismic Conditions: Reliability-Based Approach

The paper focuses on the reliability-based design optimization of gravity wall bridge abutments when subjected to active condition during earthquakes. An analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of bridge abutments is presented. Planar failure surface has been considered in conjunction with the pseudostatic limit equilibrium method for the calculation of the seismic active earth pressure. Analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of bridge abutments when subjected to earthquake loads. Reliability analysis is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure viz. sliding failure of the wall on its base, overturning failure about its toe (or eccentricity failure of the resultant force) and bearing failure of foundation soil below the base of wall. The properties of backfill and foundation soil below the base of abutment are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as horizontal seismic acceleration and shear wave velocity propagating through backfill soil are considered. The optimum proportions of the abutment needed to maintain the stability are obtained against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability.

Optimum design of cantilever sheet pile walls in sandy soils using inverse reliability approach

In this paper an approach for obtaining depth and section modulus of the cantilever sheet pile wall using inverse reliability method is described. The proposed procedure employs inverse first order reliability method to obtain the design penetration depth and section modulus of the steel sheet pile wall in order that the reliability of the wall against failure modes must meet a desired level of safety. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the effect of uncertainties in design parameters on the reliability of cantilever sheet pile walls. The analysis is performed by treating back fill soil properties, depth of the water table from the top of the sheet pile wall, yield strength of steel and section modulus of steel pile as random variables. Two limit states, viz., rotational and flexural failure of sheet pile wall are considered. The results using this approach are used to develop a set of reliability based design charts for different coefficients of variation of friction angle of the backfill (5%, 10% and 15%). System reliability considerations in terms of series and parallel systems are also studied.

Reliability Analysis of Torsional MEMS Varactor

This paper discusses reliability issues in torsional MEMS varactor. Self-actuation due to high ac signals is analyzed, and solutions are proposed. The mode of failure at high actuation voltages is analyzed and established through experiments. Issues like stiction due to high voltages and effect of high residual stress are studied experimentally.

Target reliability based design optimization of anchored cantilever sheet pile walls

In this study, the stability of anchored cantilever sheet pile wall in sandy soils is investigated using reliability analysis. Targeted stability is formulated as an optimization problem in the framework of an inverse first order reliability method. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of parameters influencing the stability of sheet pile wall. Backfill soil properties, soil - steel pile interface friction angle, depth of the water table from the top of the sheet pile wall, total depth of embedment below the dredge line, yield strength of steel, section modulus of steel sheet pile, and anchor pull are all treated as random variables. The sheet pile wall system is modeled as a series of failure mode combination. Penetration depth, anchor pull, and section modulus are calculated for various target component and system reliability indices based on three limit states. These are: rotational failure about the position of the anchor rod, expressed in terms of moment ratio; sliding failure mode, expressed in terms of force ratio; and flexural failure of the steel sheet pile wall, expressed in terms of the section modulus ratio. An attempt is made to propose reliability based design charts considering the failure criteria as well as the variability in the parameters. The results of the study are compared with studies in the literature.

Reliability assessment of internal stability of reinforced soil structures: A pseudo-dynamic approach

A methodology for reliability based optimum design of reinforced soil structures subjected to horizontal and vertical sinusoidal excitation based on pseudo-dynamic approach is presented. The tensile strength of reinforcement required to maintain the stability is computed using logarithmic spiral failure mechanism. The backfill soil properties, geometric and strength properties of reinforcement are treated as random variables. Effects of parameters like soil friction angle, horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations, shear and primary wave velocities, amplification factors for seismic acceleration on the component and system probability of failures in relation to tension and pullout capacities of reinforcement have been discussed. In order to evaluate the validity of the present formulation, static and seismic reinforcement force coefficients computed by the present method are compared with those given by other authors. The importance of the shear wave velocity in the estimation of the reliability of the structure is highlighted. The Ditlevsen's bounds of system probability of failure are also computed by taking into account the correlations between three failure modes, which is evaluated using the direction cosines of the tangent planes at the most probable points of failure. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.