Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Technological-forecasting and research inputs in area of birth-control technology

Technological forecasting, defined as quantified probabilistic prediction of timings and degree of change in the technological parameters, capabilities desirability or needs at different times in the future, is applied to birth control technology (BCT) as a means of revealing the paths of most promising research through identifying the necessary points for breakthroughs. The present status of BCT in the areas of pills and the IUD, male contraceptives, immumological approaches, post-coital pills, abortion, sterilization, luteolytic agents, laser technologies, and control of the sex of the child, are each summarized and evaluated in turn. Fine mapping is done to identify the most potentially promising areas of BCT. These include efforts to make oral contraception easier, improvement of the design of the IUD, clinical evaluation of the male contraceptive danazol, the effecting of biochemical changes in the seminal fluid, and researching of immunological approaches and the effects of other new drugs such as prostaglandins. The areas that require immediate and large research inputs are oral contraception and the IUD. On the basis of population and technological forecasts, it is deduced that research efforts could most effectively aid countries like India through the immediate production of an oral contraceptive pill or IUD with long-lasting effects. Development of a pill for males or an immunization against pre gnancy would also have a significant impact. However, the major impediment to birth control programs to date is attitudes, which must be changed through education.

Development and studies on microstrip detector

We report development of gas microstrip detectors using thin film and lithography techniques. The detectors were tested for their performance for X-rays (5.9 keV) and a maximum gas gain of similar to 13,000 and best resolution of similar to 12% was obtained. Factors affecting gain and resolution were investigated. The detectors were tested for their one-dimensional position sensitivity. Meandering resistive strips were used for charge division method. A position resolution of 0.48 mm was obtained.

End-bearing capacity of driven piles in sand using the stress characteristics method: analysis and implementation

The method of stress characteristics has been employed to compute the end-bearing capacity of driven piles. The dependency of the soil internal friction angle on the stress level has been incorporated to achieve more realistic predictions for the end-bearing capacity of piles. The validity of the assumption of the superposition principle while using the bearing capacity equation based on soil plasticity concepts, when applied to deep foundations, has been examined. Fourteen pile case histories were compiled with cone penetration tests (CPT) performed in the vicinity of different pile locations. The end-bearing capacity of the piles was computed using different methods, namely, static analysis, effective stress approach, direct CPT, and the proposed approach. The comparison between predictions made by different methods and measured records shows that the stress-level-based method of stress characteristics compares better with experimental data. Finally, the end-bearing capacity of driven piles in sand was expressed in terms of a general expression with the addition of a new factor that accounts for different factors contributing to the bearing capacity. The influence of the soil nonassociative flow rule has also been included to achieve more realistic results.

Characterization of Clean and Fouled Rail Track Ballast Subsurface Using Seismic Surface Survey Method: Model and Field Studies

The efficiency of track foundation material gradually decreases due to insufficient lateral confinement, ballast fouling, and loss of shear strength of the subsurface soil under cyclic loading. This paper presents characterization of rail track subsurface to identify ballast fouling and subsurface layers shear wave velocity using seismic survey. Seismic surface wave method of multi-channel analysis of surface wave (MASW) has been carried out in the model track and field track for finding out shear wave velocity of the clean and fouled ballast and track subsurface. The shear wave velocity (SWV) of fouled ballast increases with increase in fouling percentage, and reaches a maximum value and then decreases. This character is similar to typical compaction curve of soil, which is used to define optimum and critical fouling percentage (OFP and CFP). Critical fouling percentage of 15 % is noticed for Coal fouled ballast and 25 % is noticed for clayey sand fouled ballast. Coal fouled ballast reaches the OFP and CFP before clayey sand fouled ballast. Fouling of ballast reduces voids in ballast and there by decreases the drainage. Combined plot of permeability and SWV with percentage of fouling shows that after critical fouling point drainage condition of fouled ballast goes below acceptable limit. Shear wave velocities are measured in the selected location in the Wollongong field track by carrying out similar seismic survey. In-situ samples were collected and degrees of fouling were measured. Field SWV values are more than that of the model track SWV values for the same degree of fouling, which might be due to sleeper's confinement. This article also highlights the ballast gradation widely followed in different countries and presents the comparison of Indian ballast gradation with international gradation standards. Indian ballast contains a coarser particle size when compared to other countries. The upper limit of Indian gradation curve matches with lower limit of ballast gradation curves of America and Australia. The ballast gradation followed by Indian railways is poorly graded and more favorable for the drainage conditions. Indian ballast engineering needs extensive research to improve presents track conditions.

Progress in tuberculosis vaccine development and host-directed therapies-a state of the art review

Tuberculosis continues to kill 1.4 million people annually. During the past 5 years, an alarming increase in the number of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis has been noted, particularly in eastern Europe, Asia, and southern Africa. Treatment outcomes with available treatment regimens for drug-resistant tuberculosis are poor. Although substantial progress in drug development for tuberculosis has been made, scientific progress towards development of interventions for prevention and improvement of drug treatment outcomes have lagged behind. Innovative interventions are therefore needed to combat the growing pandemic of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. Novel adjunct treatments are needed to accomplish improved cure rates for multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. A novel, safe, widely applicable, and more effective vaccine against tuberculosis is also desperately sought to achieve disease control. The quest to develop a universally protective vaccine for tuberculosis continues. So far, research and development of tuberculosis vaccines has resulted in almost 20 candidates at different stages of the clinical trial pipeline. Host-directed therapies are now being developed to refocus the anti-Mycobacterium tuberculosis-directed immune responses towards the host; a strategy that could be especially beneficial for patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis or extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. As we are running short of canonical tuberculosis drugs, more attention should be given to host-directed preventive and therapeutic intervention measures.

Development and Evaluation of Prussian Blue Mediated Glucose Sensor for Reverse Iontophoresis Application

The screen printed electrochemical glucose sensor is developed suitable for revere iontophoresis (RI) application. Glucose oxidase is immobilized on screen printed sensor using crosslinking method. Electrochemical and material characterization studies are conducted on the developed sensor and the obtained results confirm the suitability of the developed sensor for RI application. The developed sensor is validated by conducting clinical investigations on 10 human subjects through RI. A correlation is established between the blood glucose and extracted glucose, and correlation is found to be 0.73. (C) 2015 The Electrochemical Society. All rights reserved.

Revenue management in remanufacturing: perspectives, review of current literature and research directions

The pace of development in the world has increased over the years and with it, the use of hi-tech gadgets, consumer durables, automobiles, etc. has also gone up. In this context, as resources become more and more scarce, there are multiple challenges that emerge both from a sustainable development perspective, and from the perspective of meeting profitability objectives of a firm. Remanufacturing has come up in a big way as an answer to these challenges, but firms are struggling with respect to revenue management of this nascent area. We assess the current literature and distil the key factors that firms need to consider as they assimilate remanufacturing in their operations and revenue management strategy. We provide an assessment of white spaces in research in this area and also outline the directions for future research.