The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Relative effect of slope and equilibrium line altitude on the retreat of Himalayan glaciers

It has been observed that a majority of glaciers in the Himalayas have been retreating. In this paper, we show that there are two major factors which control the advance/retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. They are the slope of the glacier and changes in the equilibrium line altitude. While it is well known, that these factors are important, we propose a new way of combining them and use it to predict retreat. The functional form of this model has been derived from numerical simulations using an ice-flow code. The model has been successfully applied to the movement of eight Himalayan glaciers during the past 25 years. It explains why the Gangotri glacier is retreating while Zemu of nearly the same length is stationary, even if they are subject to similar environmental changes. The model has also been applied to a larger set of glaciers in the Parbati basin, for which retreat based on satellite data is available, though over a shorter time period.

Variation of Snowline and Mass Balance of Glaciers of Warwan and Bhut Basins of Western Himalaya Using Remote Sensing Technique

Glaciers are natural reservoirs of fresh water in frozen state and sensitive indicators of climate change. Among all the mountainous glaciated regions, glaciers of Himalayas form one of the largest concentrations of ice outside the Polar Regions. Almost all the major rivers of northern India originate from these glaciers and sustain perennial flow. Therefore, in view of the importance and role of the glaciers in sustaining the life on the Earth, monitoring the health of glaciers is necessary. Glacier's health is monitored in two ways (i) by mapping the change in extent of glaciers (ii) by finding variation in the annual mass balance. This paper has been discussed the later approach for monitoring the health of glaciers of Warwan and Bhut basins. Mass balance of glaciers of these two basins was determined based on the extraction of snow line at the end of ablation season. A series of satellite images of AWiFS sensor were analysed for extraction of snowline on the glaciers for the period of 2005, 2006 and 2007. The snow line at the end of ablation season is used to compute accumulation area ratio (AAR = Accumulation area/Glacier area) for each glacier of basins. An approach based on relationship of AAR to specific mass balance (computed in field) for glaciers of Basapa basin was employed in the present study. Mean of specific mass balance of individual glacier for the year 2005, 2006 and 2007 of Warwan basin was found to be -ve 0.19 m, -ve 0.27 m and -ve 0.2 m respectively. It is 0.05 m, -ve 0.11 m and -ve 0.19 m for Bhut basin. The analysis suggests a loss of 4.3 and 0.83 kmA(3) of glacier in the monitoring period of 3 years for Warwan and Bhut basins respectively. The overall results suggest that the glaciers of Warwan basin and Bhut basins have suffered more loss of ice than gain in the monitoring period of 3 years.

Crevasses detection in Himalayan glaciers using ground-penetrating radar

Identification and mapping of crevasses in glaciated regions is important for safe movement. However, the remote and rugged glacial terrain in the Himalaya poses greater challenges for field data collection. In the present study crevasse signatures were collected from Siachen and Samudra Tapu glaciers in the Indian Himalaya using ground-penetrating radar (GPR). The surveys were conducted using the antennas of 250 MHz frequency in ground mode and 350 MHz in airborne mode. The identified signatures of open and hidden crevasses in GPR profiles collected in ground mode were validated by ground truthing. The crevasse zones and buried boulder areas in a glacier were identified using a combination of airborne GPR profiles and SAR data, and the same have been validated with the high-resolution optical satellite imagery (Cartosat-1) and Survey of India mapsheet. Using multi-sensor data, a crevasse map for Samudra Tapu glacier was prepared. The present methodology can also be used for mapping the crevasse zones in other glaciers in the Himalaya.

The influence of debris cover and glacial lakes on the recession of glaciers in Sikkim Himalaya, India

We investigated area changes in glaciers covering an area of similar to 200 km(2) in the Tista basin, Sikkim, Eastern Indian Himalaya, between similar to 1990 and 2010 using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Indian Remote-sensing Satellite (IRS) images and related the changes to debris cover, supraglacial lakes and moraine-dam lakes. The glaciers lost an area of 3.3 +/- 0.8% between 1989/90 and 2010. More detailed analysis revealed an area loss of 2.00 +/- 0.82, 2.56 +/- 0.61 and 2.28 +/- 2.01 km(2) for the periods 1989-97, 1997-2004/05 and 2004-2009/10, respectively. This indicates an accelerated retreat of glaciers after 1997. On further analysis, we observed (1) the formation and expansion of supraglacial lakes on many debris-covered glaciers and (2) the merging of these lakes over time, leading to the development of large moraine-dam lakes. We also observed that debris-covered glaciers with lakes lose a greater area than debris-covered glaciers without lakes and debris-free glaciers. The climatic data for 24 years (1987-2011), measured at the Gangtok meteorological station (1812 m a.s.l.), showed that the region experienced a 1.0 degrees C rise in the summer minimum temperature and a 2.0 degrees C rise in the winter minimum temperature, indicating hotter summers and warmer winters. There was no significant trend in the total annual precipitation. We find that glacier retreat is caused mainly by a temperature increase and that debris-covered glaciers can retreat at a faster rate than debris-free glaciers, if associated with lakes.

Observed changes in Himalayan glaciers

In the Himalaya, large areas are covered by glaciers and seasonal snow. They are an important source of water for the Himalayan rivers. In this article, observed changes in glacial extent and mass balance have been discussed. Various studies suggest that most of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating though the rate of retreat varies from glacier to glacier, ranging from a few meters to almost 61 m/year, depending upon the terrain and meteorological parameters. In addition, mapping of almost 11,000 out of 40,000 sq. km of glaciated area, distributed in all major climatic zones of the Himalaya, suggests an almost 13% loss in area in the last 4-5 decades. The glacier mass balance observations and estimates made using methods like field, AAR, ELA and geodetic measurements, suggest a significant increase in mass wastage of Himalayan glaciers in the last 3-4 decades. In the last four decades loss in glacial ice has been estimated at 19 +/- 7 m. This suggests loss of 443 +/- 136 Gt of glacial mass out of a total 3600-4400 Gt of glacial stored water in the Indian Himalaya. This study has also shown that mean loss in glacier mass in the Indian Himalaya is accelerated from -9 +/- 4 to -20 +/- 4 Gt/year between the periods 1975-85 and 2000-2010. The estimate of glacial stored water in the Indian Himalaya is based on glacier inventory on a 1 : 250,000 scale and scaling methods; therefore, we assume uncertainties to be large.

Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan-Karakoram region using different methods

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area-volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period 2000-2010 and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km(2). An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km(3), depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation.

Understanding changes in the Himalayan cryosphere using remote sensing techniques

In the Himalayas, a large area is covered by glaciers and seasonal snow and changes in its extent can influence availability of water in the Himalayan Rivers. In this paper, changes in glacial extent, glacial mass balance and seasonal snow cover are discussed. Glacial retreat was estimated for 1868 glaciers in 11 basins distributed in the Indian Himalaya since 1962. The investigation has shown an overall reduction in glacier area from 6332 to 5329km2 from 1962 to 2001/2 - an overall deglaciation of 16%. Snow line at the end of ablation season on the Chhota Shigri glacier observed using field and satellite methods suggests a change in altitude from 4900 to 5200m from the late 1970s to present. Seasonal snow cover was monitored in the 28 river sub-basins using normalized difference snow index (NDSI) technique in Central and Western Himalaya. The investigation has shown that in the early part of winter, i.e. from October to December, a large amount of snow retreat was observed. For many basins located in lower altitude and in the south of the Pir Panjal range, snow ablation was observed throughout the winter season. In addition, average stream runoff of the Baspa basin for the month of December increased by 75%. This combination of glacial retreat, negative mass balance, early melting of seasonal snow cover and winter-time increase in stream runoff might suggest an influence of global warming on the Himalayan cryosphere.

RS and GIS in mapping of geomorphic records and understanding the local controls of glacial retreat from the Baspa Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India

We report here the role of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) in the identification of geomorphic records and understanding of the local controls on the retreat of glaciers of the Baspa Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India. The geomorphic records mapped are accumulation zone, exposed ablation zone, moraine-covered ablation zone, snout, deglaciated valley, lateral moraine, medial moraine, terminal moraine and hanging glacier. Details of these features and stages of deglaciation have been extracted from RS data and mapped in a GIS environment. Glacial geomorphic data have been generated for 22 glaciers of the Baspa Valley. The retreat of glaciers has been estimated using the glacial maxima observed on satellite images. On the basis of percentage of retreat and the critical analysis of glacial geomorphic data for 22 glaciers of the Baspa Valley, they are classified into seven categories of very low to very very high retreat. From the analysis of the above 22 glaciers, it has been found that other than global warming, the retreat of glaciers of the Baspa Valley is inversely proportional to the size of the accumulation zone and the ratio of the moraine covered ablation/exposed ablation zone.

Monitoring Himalayan cryosphere using remote sensing techniques

In the Himalayas, large area is covered by glaciers, seasonal snow and changes in its extent can influence availability of water in the Himalayan Rivers. In this paper, changes in glacial extent, glacial mass balance and seasonal snow cover have been discussed. Field and satellite based investigations suggest, most of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating though the rate of retreat is varying from glacier to glacier, ranging from few meters to almost 50 meters per year, depending upon the numerous glacial, terrain and meteorological parameters. Retreat was estimated for 1868 glaciers in eleven basins distributed across the Indian Himalaya since 1962 to 2001/02. Estimates show an overall reduction in glacier area from 6332 to 5329 sq km, an overall deglaciation of 16 percent.Snow line at the end of ablation season on the Chhota Shigri glacier suggests a change in altitude from 4900 to 5200 m from late 1970’s to the present. Seasonal snow cover monitoring of the Himalaya has shown large amounts of snow cover depletion in early part of winter, i.e. from October to December. For many basins located in lower altitude and in south of Pir Panjal range, snow ablation was observed through out the winter season. In addition, average stream runoff of the Baspa basin during the month of December shows an increase by 75 per cent. This combination of glacial retreat, negative mass balance, early melting of seasonal snow cover and winter time increase in stream runoff suggest an influence of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere.

A comparative study of deglaciation in two neighbouring basins (Warwan and Bhut) of Western Himalaya

Glaciers of the Himalaya contribute significantly in the processes linking atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere, thus need to be monitored in view of the climatic variations. In this direction, many studies have been carried out during the last two decades and satellite-based multispectral data have been used extensively for this purpose throughout the world. The present study is aimed at mapping of glaciers in two adjacent basins (Warwan and Bhut) of the Western Himalaya with almost similar altitude and latitude and comparing the changes in the two time-frames with respect to three parameters, i.e. area, debris cover and area altitude distribution of glaciers. The two time-frames are topographical maps of 1962 and IRS LISS III images of 2001/02. Deglaciation was observed in both the basins with 19% and 9% loss in the glaciated area in Warwan and Bhut respectively. This difference may be due to: (i) the smaller size of the glaciers of the Warwan Basin (e.g. 164 glaciers having <1 sq. km area in comparison to 101 glaciers in the Bhut Basin), (ii) lower percentage of moraine cover in Warwan (18) than in the Bhut Basin (30) and (iii) higher percentage of glaciated area lying below 5100 m (80) in Warwan than in the Bhut Basin (70).

Remote sensing study of snowline altitude at the end of melting season, Chandra-Bhaga basin, Himachal Pradesh, 1980-2007

Glaciers have a direct relation with climate change. The equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is the most useful parameter to study the effect of climate change on glaciers. The ELA is a theoretical snowline at which the glacier mass balance is zero. Snowline altitude (SLA) at the end of melting season is generally regarded as the ELA. Glaciers of Chandra-Bhaga basin in Lahaul-Spiti district of Himachal Pradesh were chosen to study the ELA, using satellite images from 1980 to 2007. A total of 19 glaciers from the Chandra-Bhaga basin were identified and selected to carry out the study of ELA variation over 27 years. This study reveals that the mean SLA of the sub-basin has increased from 5009 +/- 61m to 5401 +/- 21m from 1980 to 2007. The study is in agreement with the reported increase in the temperature and decrease in winter snowfall of North-West Himalaya in the last century.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even-more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 +/- 1 Gta(-1), which decreases about sixfold to -35 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face `eventual disappearance' by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.

Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm.