Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

Reference annual atmospheres for midlatitude and tropics

Many aerospace and scientific applications require the specification of the atmospheric properties at various locations, UT and seasons for a range of solar and geomagnetic activity. The nature and mechanisms of the lower and upper atmospheres are different so also their models. Further there is a need to match these models and this is accomplished here in a simple way. In the revision of CIRA 1972 in 1986, the reference middle atmospheres is not yet complete. Two annual reference atmospheres from sea level up to 2000 km for the midlatitude and the tropics is proposed. Other monthly reference atmospheres as also the structure of the atmospheric tables to be provided in the above document is also indicated.

Long-term effects of Macroternies termites, herbivores and annual early fire on woody undergrowth community in Sudanian woodland, Burkina Faso

Termites, herbivores and fire are recognized as major guilds that structure woody plant communities in African savanna and woodland ecosystems. An understanding of their interaction is crucial to design appropriate management regimes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term impacts of herbivore, fire and termite activities on regeneration of trees. Permanent experimental quadrats were established in 1992 in the Sudanian woodland of Burkina Faso subjected to grazing by livestock and annual early fire and the control. Within the treatment quadrats, an inventory of the woody undergrowth community was conducted on termitaria occupied by Macrotermes subhyalinus, extended termitosphere (within 5 m radius from the mound base) and adjacent area (beyond 5 m from the mound base). Hierarchical analysis was performed to determine significant differences in species richness, abundance and diversity indices among vegetation patches within fire and herbivory treatments. Grazed quadrats had significantly (P < 0.001) more species and stem density of woody undergrowth than non-grazed quadrats but maintained similar level of species richness and stem density of woody undergrowth on termitaria. There were not significant differences (P>0.05) in species richness and stem density between burnt and unburnt quadrats. Termitaria supported a highly diverse woody undergrowth with higher stem density than either the extended termitosphere or rest of quadrats. The density of woody undergrowth was significantly related with mature trees of selected species on termitaria (R-2 = 0.593; P<0.001) than that on the extended termitosphere (R-2 = 0.333; P<0.001) and adjacent area (R-2 = 0.197; P<0.001). It can be concluded that termites facilitate the regeneration of woody species while grazing and annual early fire play a minor role in the regeneration of woody species. The current policy that prohibits grazing should be revised to accommodate the interests of livestock herders. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.