Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

On the Equivalence of Acoustic Impedance and Squeeze Film Impedance in Micromechanical Resonators

In this work, we address the issue of modeling squeeze film damping in nontrivial geometries that are not amenable to analytical solutions. The design and analysis of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) resonators, especially those that use platelike two-dimensional structures, require structural dynamic response over the entire range of frequencies of interest. This response calculation typically involves the analysis of squeeze film effects and acoustic radiation losses. The acoustic analysis of vibrating plates is a very well understood problem that is routinely carried out using the equivalent electrical circuits that employ lumped parameters (LP) for acoustic impedance. Here, we present a method to use the same circuit with the same elements to account for the squeeze film effects as well by establishing an equivalence between the parameters of the two domains through a rescaled equivalent relationship between the acoustic impedance and the squeeze film impedance. Our analysis is based on a simple observation that the squeeze film impedance rescaled by a factor of jx, where x is the frequency of oscillation, qualitatively mimics the acoustic impedance over a large frequency range. We present a method to curvefit the numerically simulated stiffness and damping coefficients which are obtained using finite element analysis (FEA) analysis. A significant advantage of the proposed method is that it is applicable to any trivial/nontrivial geometry. It requires very limited finite element method (FEM) runs within the frequency range of interest, hence reducing the computational cost, yet modeling the behavior in the entire range accurately. We demonstrate the method using one trivial and one nontrivial geometry.

How to be a fig wasp parasite on the fig-fig wasp mutualism

The nursery pollination mutualism between figs and pollinating fig wasps is based on adaptations that allow wasps to enter the enclosed inflorescences of figs, to facilitate seed set, and to have offspring that develop within the nursery and that leave to enter other inflorescences for pollination. This closed mutualistic system is not immune to parasitic fig wasps. Although the life histories and basic biology of the mutualists have been investigated, the biology of the fig wasp parasites has been severely neglected. This review brings together current knowledge of the many different ways in which parasites can enter the system, and also points to the serious lacunae in our understanding of the intricate interactions between gallers, kleptoparasites, seed eaters and parasitoids within this mutualism.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.