120 resultados para Probability of detection


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Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this' region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.

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Strong atmospheric turbulence is a major hindrance in wireless optical communication systems. In this paper, the performance of a wireless optical communication system is analyzed using different modulation formats such as, binary phase shift keying-subcarrier intensity modulation (BPSK-SIM), differential phase shift keying (DPSK), differential phase shift keying-subcarrier intensity modulation (DPSK-SIM), Mary pulse position modulation (M-PPM) and polarization shift keying (PoISK). The atmospheric channel is modeled for strong atmospheric turbulences with combined effect of turbulence and pointing errors. Novel closed-form analytical expressions for average bit error rate (BER), channel capacity and outage probability for the various modulation techniques, viz. BPSK-SIM, DPSK, DPSK-SIM, PoISK and M-PPM are derived. The simulated results for BER, channel capacity and outage probability of various modulation techniques are plotted and analyzed. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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During the early stages of operation, high-tech startups need to overcome the liability of newness and manage high degree of uncertainty. Several high-tech startups fail due to inability to deal with skeptical customers, underdeveloped markets and limited resources in selling an offering that has no precedent. This paper leverages the principles of effectuation (a logic of entrepreneurial decision making under uncertainty) to explain the journey from creation to survival of high-tech startups in an emerging economy. Based on the 99tests.com case study, this paper suggests that early stage high-tech startups in emerging economies can increase their probability of survival by adopting the principles of effectuation.

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Photocatalytic degradation of estriol (E3) in an aqueous medium was investigated in the presence of TiO2 microcrystallized glass plates. To begin with, transparent glasses associated with the composition 0.4BaO-0.4TiO(2)-B2O3 (BTBO) were fabricated by the conventional melt-quench technique and subsequently subjected to controlled heat treatment at an appropriate temperature to grow anatase TiO2 microcrystals in the glass matrix. The fabricated samples were subjected to differential scanning calorimetry. X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy to obtain thermal, structural and microstructural details. The photocatalytic activity of glass samples for estriol degradation was monitored by fluorescence spectroscopy. The limit of detection for estriol using fluorescence spectroscopy was analyzed. The results showed that microcrystallized TiO2 glass composites have more photocatalytic activity than as quenched glass. The degradation rate coefficient of microcrystallized TiO2 glass composite (334.54 min(-1) m(-2)) was found to be ten times larger than that of the as-quenched BTBO glasses (37.74 min(-1) m(-2)) implying that the anatase phase of TiO2 in BTBO glasses was responsible for high photocatalytic activity of estriol degradation. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A simple yet remarkable, electrochemically activated carbon paste electrode (EACPE) was prepared by successive potential cycling of carbon paste in a 0.1 M NaOH solution and was effectively used for the simultaneous determination of catecholamines such as dopamine (DA), epinephrine (E) and Norepinephrine (NE) in presence of uric acid (UA) and ascorbic acid (AA). Taking DA as the ideal catecholamine, the electrochemical behaviors of DA, UA and AA such as scan rate and pH variation was studied by cyclic voltammetry (CV) in phosphate buffer solution (PBS, pH 7.1). This electrochemical sensor exhibited strong electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of a mixture of catecholamines, UA and AA with apparent reduction of overpotentials. Crider optimum conditions, limit of detection (S/N = 3) of DA, E, NE, UA and AA was found to be 0.08, 0.08, 0.07, 0.1 and 6.0 mu M, respectively by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). The analytical performance of this modified electrode as a biosensor was also demonstrated for the determination of DA, UA and AA in dopamine injection, human urine and vitamin C tablets, respectively, in presence of other interfering substances. (C) 2015 The Electrochemical Society. All-rights reserved.

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Self-assembly of nano sized particles during natural drying causes agglomeration and shell formation at the surface of micron sized droplets. The shell undergoes sol-gel transition leading to buckling at the weakest point on the surface and produces different types of structures. Manipulation of the buckling rate with inclusion of surfactant (sodium dodecyl sulphate, SDS) and salt (anilinium hydrochloride, AHC) to the nano-sized particle dispersion (nanosilica) is reported here in an acoustically levitated single droplet. Buckling in levitated droplets is a cumulative, complicated function of acoustic streaming, chemistry, agglomeration rate, porosity, radius of curvature, and elastic energy of shell. We put forward our hypothesis on how buckling occurs and can be suppressed during natural drying of the droplets. Global precipitation of aggregates due to slow drying of surfactant-added droplets (no added salts) enhances the rigidity of the shell formed and hence reduces the buckling probability of the shell. On the contrary, adsorption of SDS aggregates on salt ions facilitates the buckling phenomenon with an addition of minute concentration of the aniline salt to the dispersion. Variation in the concentration of the added particles (SDS/AHC) also leads to starkly different morphologies and transient behaviour of buckling (buckling modes like paraboloid, ellipsoid, and buckling rates). Tuning of the buckling rate causes a transition in the final morphology from ring and bowl shapes to cocoon type of structure. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

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A novel and highly sensitive sensing strategy for the detection of organophosphorus compounds (OPs) based on the catalytic reaction of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and acetylcholine (ATCh) during the modulated synthesis of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) has been developed. The enzymatic hydrolysis of ATCh by AChE yields thiocholine (TCh), which induces the aggregation of AgNPs during synthesis, and the absorption peak at 382 nm corresponding to AgNPs decreases. The enzymatic reaction can be regulated by OPs, which can covalently bind to the active site of AChE and decrease the TCh formation, thereby decreasing the aggregation and significantly enhancing the absorption peak at 382 nm. The proposed system achieved good linearity and limits of detection of 0.078 nM and 2.402 nM for trichlorfon and malathion, respectively, by UV-visible spectroscopy. Further, the sensitivity of the proposed system was demonstrated through the determination of OPs in different spiked real samples. The described work shows the potential application for further development of a colorimetric sensor for other OP pesticide detection during the synthesis of AgNPs using enzyme-based assays.

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UHV power transmission lines have high probability of shielding failure due to their higher height, larger exposure area and high operating voltage. Lightning upward leader inception and propagation is an integral part of lightning shielding failure analysis and need to be studied in detail. In this paper a model for lightning attachment has been proposed based on the present knowledge of lightning physics. Leader inception is modeled based on the corona charge present near the conductor region and the propagation model is based on the correlation between the lightning induced voltage on the conductor and the drop along the upward leader channel. The inception model developed is compared with previous inception models and the results obtained using the present and previous models are comparable. Lightning striking distances (final jump) for various return stroke current were computed for different conductor heights. The computed striking distance values showed good correlation with the values calculated using the equation proposed by the IEEE working group for the applicable conductor heights of up to 8 m. The model is applied to a 1200 kV AC power transmission line and inception of the upward leader is analyzed for this configuration.

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This paper proposes a probabilistic prediction based approach for providing Quality of Service (QoS) to delay sensitive traffic for Internet of Things (IoT). A joint packet scheduling and dynamic bandwidth allocation scheme is proposed to provide service differentiation and preferential treatment to delay sensitive traffic. The scheduler focuses on reducing the waiting time of high priority delay sensitive services in the queue and simultaneously keeping the waiting time of other services within tolerable limits. The scheme uses the difference in probability of average queue length of high priority packets at previous cycle and current cycle to determine the probability of average weight required in the current cycle. This offers optimized bandwidth allocation to all the services by avoiding distribution of excess resources for high priority services and yet guaranteeing the services for it. The performance of the algorithm is investigated using MPEG-4 traffic traces under different system loading. The results show the improved performance with respect to waiting time for scheduling high priority packets and simultaneously keeping tolerable limits for waiting time and packet loss for other services. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

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Nanocrystalline Mn1-xZnxFe2O4 (x = 0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0) were prepared via solution combustion method. Structural and morphology of Mn-Zn ferrites were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Magnetic properties were carried out using vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) at room temperature (RT) up to maximum field of 1.5 T. The room temperature real and imaginary part of permeability(mu' and mu'') has been measured in the frequency range of 1MHz to 1GHz. The room temperature XRD patterns exhibits the spinel cubic (Fm-3m) structure and broad XRD patterns shows the presence of nanoparticles. The imaginary part of the permeability (mu'') gradually increased with the frequency and took a broad maximum at a certain frequency, where the real permeability (mu') rapidly decreases, which is known as natural resonance. The coercive filed values are low, hence probability of domain rotation is also lower and the magnetization decreased with zinc substitution. The values of mu' and mu'' increases sharply, attained a maximum and then decreases with zinc content.

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We study graphene, which has both spin-orbit coupling (SOC), taken to be of the Kane-Mele form, and a Zeeman field induced due to proximity to a ferromagnetic material. We show that a zigzag interface of graphene having SOC with its pristine counterpart hosts robust chiral edge modes in spite of the gapless nature of the pristine graphene; such modes do not occur for armchair interfaces. Next we study the change in the local density of states (LDOS) due to the presence of an impurity in graphene with SOC and Zeeman field, and demonstrate that the Fourier transform of the LDOS close to the Dirac points can act as a measure of the strength of the spin-orbit coupling; in addition, for a specific distribution of impurity atoms, the LDOS is controlled by a destructive interference effect of graphene electrons which is a direct consequence of their Dirac nature. Finally, we study transport across junctions, which separates spin-orbit coupled graphene with Kane-Mele and Rashba terms from pristine graphene both in the presence and absence of a Zeeman field. We demonstrate that such junctions are generally spin active, namely, they can rotate the spin so that an incident electron that is spin polarized along some direction has a finite probability of being transmitted with the opposite spin. This leads to a finite, electrically controllable, spin current in such graphene junctions. We discuss possible experiments that can probe our theoretical predictions.

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We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.

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Human detection is a complex problem owing to the variable pose that they can adopt. Here, we address this problem in sparse representation framework with an overcomplete scale-embedded dictionary. Histogram of oriented gradient features extracted from the candidate image patches are sparsely represented by the dictionary that contain positive bases along with negative and trivial bases. The object is detected based on the proposed likelihood measure obtained from the distribution of these sparse coefficients. The likelihood is obtained as the ratio of contribution of positive bases to negative and trivial bases. The positive bases of the dictionary represent the object (human) at various scales. This enables us to detect the object at any scale in one shot and avoids multiple scanning at different scales. This significantly reduces the computational complexity of detection task. In addition to human detection, it also finds the scale at which the human is detected due to the scale-embedded structure of the dictionary.