123 resultados para Hydrological Modelling


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Social insects provide an excellent platform to investigate flow of information in regulatory systems since their successful social organization is essentially achieved by effective information transfer through complex connectivity patterns among the colony members. Network representation of such behavioural interactions offers a powerful tool for structural as well as dynamical analysis of the underlying regulatory systems. In this paper, we focus on the dominance interaction networks in the tropical social wasp Ropalidia marginata-a species where behavioural observations indicate that such interactions are principally responsible for the transfer of information between individuals about their colony needs, resulting in a regulation of their own activities. Our research reveals that the dominance networks of R. marginata are structurally similar to a class of naturally evolved information processing networks, a fact confirmed also by the predominance of a specific substructure-the `feed-forward loop'-a key functional component in many other information transfer networks. The dynamical analysis through Boolean modelling confirms that the networks are sufficiently stable under small fluctuations and yet capable of more efficient information transfer compared to their randomized counterparts. Our results suggest the involvement of a common structural design principle in different biological regulatory systems and a possible similarity with respect to the effect of selection on the organization levels of such systems. The findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that dominance behaviour has been shaped by natural selection to co-opt the information transfer process in such social insect species, in addition to its primal function of mediation of reproductive competition in the colony.

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The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most prominent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circulation also can be a source of irregularities. We end by pointing out that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation and fluctuations in meridional circulation together can explain the occurrences of grand minima.

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The problem of modelling the transient response of an elastic-perfectly-plastic cantilever beam, carrying an impulsively loaded tip mass, is,often referred to as the Parkes cantilever problem 25]; The permanent deformation of a cantilever struck transversely at its tip, Proc. R. Soc. A., 288, pp. 462). This paradigm for classical modelling of projectile impact on structures is re-visited and updated using the mesh-free method, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). The purpose of this study is to investigate further the behaviour of cantilever beams subjected to projectile impact at its tip, by considering especially physically real effects such as plastic shearing close to the projectile, shear deformation, and the variation of the shear strain along the length and across the thickness of the beam. Finally, going beyond macroscopic structural plasticity, a strategy to incorporate physical discontinuity (due to crack formation) in SPH discretization is discussed and explored in the context of tip-severance of the cantilever beam. Consequently, the proposed scheme illustrates the potency for a more refined treatment of penetration mechanics, paramount in the exploration of structural response under ballistic loading. The objective is to contribute to formulating a computational modelling framework within which transient dynamic plasticity and even penetration/failure phenomena for a range of materials, structures and impact conditions can be explored ab initio, this being essential for arriving at suitable tools for the design of armour systems. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper we present a massively parallel open source solver for Richards equation, named the RichardsFOAM solver. This solver has been developed in the framework of the open source generalist computational fluid dynamics tool box OpenFOAM (R) and is capable to deal with large scale problems in both space and time. The source code for RichardsFOAM may be downloaded from the CPC program library website. It exhibits good parallel performances (up to similar to 90% parallel efficiency with 1024 processors both in strong and weak scaling), and the conditions required for obtaining such performances are analysed and discussed. These performances enable the mechanistic modelling of water fluxes at the scale of experimental watersheds (up to few square kilometres of surface area), and on time scales of decades to a century. Such a solver can be useful in various applications, such as environmental engineering for long term transport of pollutants in soils, water engineering for assessing the impact of land settlement on water resources, or in the study of weathering processes on the watersheds. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We present a survey on different numerical interpolation schemes used for two-phase transient heat conduction problems in the context of interface capturing phase-field methods. Examples are general transport problems in the context of diffuse interface methods with a non-equal heat conductivity in normal and tangential directions to the interface. We extend the tonsorial approach recently published by Nicoli M et al (2011 Phys. Rev. E 84 1-6) to the general three-dimensional (3D) transient evolution equations. Validations for one-dimensional, two-dimensional and 3D transient test cases are provided, and the results are in good agreement with analytical and numerical reference solutions.

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Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

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In the absence of information on species in decline with contracting ranges, management should emphasize remaining populations and protection of their habitats. Threatened by anthropogenic pressure including habitat degradation and loss, sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in India have become limited in range, habitat, and population size. We identified ecological and anthropogenic determinants of occurrence within an occupancy framework to evaluate habitat suitability of non-protected regions (with sloth bears) in northeastern Karnataka, India. We employed a systematic sampling methodology to yield presence absence data to examine a priori hypotheses of determinants that affected occupancy. These covariates were broadly classified as habitat or anthropogenic factors. Mean number of termite mounds and trees positively influenced sloth bear occupancy, and grazing pressure expounded by mean number of livestock dung affected it negatively. Also, mean percentage of shrub coverage had no impact on bear inhabitance. The best fitting model further predicted habitats in Bukkasagara, Agoli, and Benakal reserved forests to have 38%, 75%, and 88%, respectively, of their sampled grid cells with high occupancies (>0.70) albeit little or no legal protection. We recommend a conservation strategy that includes protection of vegetation stand-structure, maintenance of soil moisture, and enrichment of habitat for the long-term welfare of this species.

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Nature has evolved a beautiful design for small-scale vibratory rategyro in the form of dipteran halteres that detect body rotations via Coriolis acceleration. In most Diptera, including soldier fly, Hermetia illucens, halteres are a pair of special organs, located in the space between the thorax and the abdomen. The halteres along with their connecting joint with the fly's body constitute a mechanism that is used for muscle-actuated oscillations of the halteres along the actuation direction. These oscillations lead to bending vibrations in the sensing direction (out of the haltere's actuation plane) upon any impressed rotation due to the resulting Coriolis force. This induced vibration is sensed by the sensory organs at the base of the haltere in order to determine the rate of rotation. In this study, we evaluate the boundary conditions and the stiffness of the anesthetized halteres along the actuation and the sensing direction. We take several cross-sectional SEM (scanning electron microscope) images of the soldier fly haltere and construct its three dimensional model to get the mass properties. Based on these measurements, we estimate the natural frequency along both actuation and sensing directions, propose a finite element model of the haltere's joint mechanism, and discuss the significance of the haltere's asymmetric cross-section. The estimated natural frequency along the actuation direction is within the range of the haltere's flapping frequency. However, the natural frequency along the sensing direction is roughly double the haltere's flapping frequency that provides a large bandwidth for sensing the rate of rotation to the soldier flies.

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This paper develops a fully coupled time domain Reduced Order Modelling (ROM) approach to model unsteady combustion dynamics in a backward facing step combustor The acoustic field equations are projected onto the canonical acoustic eigenmodes of the systems to obtain a coupled system of modal evolution equations. The heat release response of the flame is modelled using the G-equation approach. Vortical velocity fluctuations that arise due to shear layer rollup downstream of the step are modelled using a simplified 1D-advection equation whose phase speed is determined from a linear, local, temporal stability analysis of the shear layer just downstream of the step. The hydrodynamic stability analysis reveals a abrupt change in the value of disturbance phase speed from unity for Re < Re-crit to 0.5 for Re > Re-crit, where Remit for the present geometry was found to be approximate to 10425. The results for self-excited flame response show highly wrinkled flame shapes that are qualitatively similar to those seen in prior experiments of acoustically forced flames. The effect of constructive and destructive interference between the two contributions to flame surface wrinkling results in high amplitude wrinkles for the case when K-c -> 1.

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We present a hybrid finite element based methodology to solve the coupled fluid structure problem of squeeze film effects in vibratory MEMS devices, such as gyroscopes, RF switches, and 2D resonators. The aforementioned devices often have a thin plate like structure vibrating normally to a fixed substrate, and are generally not perfectly vacuum packed. This results in a thin air film being trapped between the vibrating plate and the fixed substrate which behaves like a squeeze film offering both stiffness and damping. For accurate modelling of such devices the squeeze film effects must be incorporated. Extensive literature is available on squeeze film modelling, however only a few studies address the coupled fluid elasticity problem. The majority of the studies that account for the plate elasticity coupled with the fluid equation, either use approximate mode shapes for the plate or use iterative solution strategies. In an earlier work we presented a single step coupled methodology using only one type of displacement based element to solve the coupled problem. The displacement based finite element models suffer from locking issues when it comes to modelling very thin structures with the lateral dimensions much larger than the plate thickness as is typical in MEMS devices with squeeze film effects. In this work we present another coupled formulation where we have used hybrid elements to model the structural domain. The numerical results show a huge improvement in convergence and accuracy with coarse hybrid mesh as compared to displacement based formulations. We further compare our numerical results with experimental data from literature and find them to be in good accordance.

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The high temperature strength of alloys with (gamma +gamma') microstructure is primarily due to the resistance of the ordered precipitate to cutting by matrix dislocations. Such shearing requires higher stresses since it involves the creation of a planar fault. Planar fault energy is known to be dependent on composition. This implies that the composition on the fault may be different from that in the bulk for energetic reasons. Such segregation (or desegregation) of specific alloying elements to the fault may result in Suzuki strengthening which has not been explored extensively in these systems. In this work, segregation (or desegregation) of alloying elements to planar faults was studied computationally in Ni-3(Al, Ti) and Co-3(W, Al) type gamma' precipitates. The composition dependence of APB energy and heat of mixing were evaluated from first principle electronic structure calculations. A phase field model incorporating the first principles results, was used to simulate the motion of an extended superdislocation under stress concurrently with composition evolution. Results reveal that in both systems, significant (de) segregation occurs on equilibration. On application of stress, solutes were dragged along with the APB in some cases. Additionally, it was also noted the velocity of the superdislocation under an applied stress is strongly dependent on atomic mobility (i. e. diffusivity).

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The shearing of ordered gamma' precipitates by matrix dislocations results in the formation of antiphase boundaries (APB) in Ni-base superalloys. The APB energy is an important source of order-strengthening in disk and blade alloys where Ti and Ta substitute for Al in gamma'. While the importance of APB energy is well-acknowledged, the effect of alloying on APB energy is not fully understood. In the present study, the effect of Ti and Ta additions on the {111} and {010} APB energies was probed via electronic structure calculations. Results suggest that at low levels of Ti/Ta, APB energies on either plane increases with alloying. However, at higher Ti/Ta levels, the APB energies decrease with alloying. These trends understood by accounting for nearest neighbour violations about the APB and additionally, invoking the effect of precipitate composition on the energy penalty of the violations. We propose an Environment Dependent Nearest Neighbour Bond (EDNNB) model that predicts APB energies that are in close agreement to calculated values.

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Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

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Sacred groves are patches of forests of special spiritual significance to humans, offering also a diverse range of ecological and environmental services. We have attempted here to understand the local hydrological dynamics of a sacred forest, in terms of the benefits the village community derive, in central Western Ghats region of India. A comparative assessment has been made between two small watersheds in terms of their landscape structure (woody species composition) with soil water properties and availability of water in the respective downstream villages. The result shows that, sacred site with more primeval vegetation has close association with soil moisture in comparison to non-sacred site during dry spell of the year. The higher soil moisture ensures year long availability of water in the downstream village of the sacred site which facilitates farming of commercial crops with higher economic returns to the farmers, unlike the farmers in the other village where they face water crisis during the lean season. The study emphasizes the need for conservation endeavour on sacred groves highlighting its potential for water conservation at local and regional levels.

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Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.