Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Structural and mechanistic investigations on Salmonella typhimurium acetate kinase (AckA): identification of a putative ligand binding pocket at the dimeric interface

Background: Bacteria such as Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium can utilize acetate as the sole source of carbon and energy. Acetate kinase (AckA) and phosphotransacetylase (Pta), key enzymes of acetate utilization pathway, regulate flux of metabolites in glycolysis, gluconeogenesis, TCA cycle, glyoxylate bypass and fatty acid metabolism. Results: Here we report kinetic characterization of S. typhimurium AckA (StAckA) and structures of its unliganded (Form-I, 2.70 angstrom resolution) and citrate-bound (Form-II, 1.90 angstrom resolution) forms. The enzyme showed broad substrate specificity with k(cat)/K-m in the order of acetate > propionate > formate. Further, the K-m for acetyl-phosphate was significantly lower than for acetate and the enzyme could catalyze the reverse reaction (i.e. ATP synthesis) more efficiently. ATP and Mg2+ could be substituted by other nucleoside 5'-triphosphates (GTP, UTP and CTP) and divalent cations (Mn2+ and Co2+), respectively. Form-I StAckA represents the first structural report of an unliganded AckA. StAckA protomer consists of two domains with characteristic beta beta beta alpha beta alpha beta alpha topology of ASKHA superfamily of proteins. These domains adopt an intermediate conformation compared to that of open and closed forms of ligand-bound Methanosarcina thermophila AckA (MtAckA). Spectroscopic and structural analyses of StAckA further suggested occurrence of inter-domain motion upon ligand-binding. Unexpectedly, Form-II StAckA structure showed a drastic change in the conformation of residues 230-300 compared to that of Form-I. Further investigation revealed electron density corresponding to a citrate molecule in a pocket located at the dimeric interface of Form-II StAckA. Interestingly, a similar dimeric interface pocket lined with largely conserved residues could be identified in Form-I StAckA as well as in other enzymes homologous to AckA suggesting that ligand binding at this pocket may influence the function of these enzymes. Conclusions: The biochemical and structural characterization of StAckA reported here provides insights into the biochemical specificity, overall fold, thermal stability, molecular basis of ligand binding and inter-domain motion in AckA family of enzymes. Dramatic conformational differences observed between unliganded and citrate-bound forms of StAckA led to identification of a putative ligand-binding pocket at the dimeric interface of StAckA with implications for enzymatic function.

Relation between the work function and Young's modulus of RhSi and estimate of Schottky-barrier height at RhSi/Si interface: An ab-initio study

Density-functional calculations are performed to explore the relationship between the work function and Young's modulus of RhSi, and to estimate the p-Schottky-barrier height (SBH) at the Si/RhSi(010) interface. It is shown that the Young's modulus and the workfunction of RhSi satisfy the generic sextic relation, proposed recently for elemental metals. The calculated p-SBH at the Si/RhSi interface is found to differ only by 0.04 eV in opposite limits, viz., no-pinning and strong pinning. We find that the p-SBH is reduced as much as by 0.28 eV due to vacancies at the interface. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4761994]

Smart Network Interface Selection for E-DTNs

We implement two energy models that accurately and comprehensively estimates the system energy cost and communication energy cost for using Bluetooth and Wi-Fi interfaces. The energy models running on a system is used to smartly pick the most energy optimal network interface so that data transfer between two end points is maximized.

On the dynamic contact angle in simulation of impinging droplets with sharp interface methods

Effects of dynamic contact angle models on the flow dynamics of an impinging droplet in sharp interface simulations are presented in this article. In the considered finite element scheme, the free surface is tracked using the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach. The contact angle is incorporated into the model by replacing the curvature with the Laplace-Beltrami operator and integration by parts. Further, the Navier-slip with friction boundary condition is used to avoid stress singularities at the contact line. Our study demonstrates that the contact angle models have almost no influence on the flow dynamics of the non-wetting droplets. In computations of the wetting and partially wetting droplets, different contact angle models induce different flow dynamics, especially during recoiling. It is shown that a large value for the slip number has to be used in computations of the wetting and partially wetting droplets in order to reduce the effects of the contact angle models. Among all models, the equilibrium model is simple and easy to implement. Further, the equilibrium model also incorporates the contact angle hysteresis. Thus, the equilibrium contact angle model is preferred in sharp interface numerical schemes.

Interface capturing simulations of acoustically driven bubble dynamics in and near tissue

Tissue injury during therapeutic ultrasound or lithotripsy is thought, in cases, to be due to the action of cavitation bubbles. Assessing this and mitigating it is challenging since bubble dynamics in the complex confinement of tissues or in small blood vessels are challenging to predict. Simulations tools require specialized algorithms to simultaneously represent strong acoustic waves and shocks, topologically complex liquid‐vapor phase boundaries, and the complex viscoelastic material dynamics of tissue. We discuss advances in a simulation tool for such situations. A single‐mesh Eulerian solver is used to solve the governing equations. Special sharpening terms maintain the liquid‐vapor interface in face of the finite numerical dissipation included in the scheme to accurately capture shocks. A recent enhancement to this formulation has significantly improved this interface capturing procedure, which is demonstrated for simulation of the Rayleigh collapse of a bubble. The solver also transports elastic stresses and can thus be used to assess the effects of elastic properties on bubble dynamics. A shock‐induced bubble collapse adjacent to a model elastic tissue is used to demonstrate this and draw some conclusions regarding the injury suppressing role that tissue elasticity might play.

Microscopic dynamics of nanoparticle monolayers at air-water interface

We present results of surface mechanical and particle tracking measurements of nanoparticles trapped at the air-water interface as a function of their areal density. We monitor both the surface pressure (II) and isothermal compression modulus (epsilon) as well as the dynamics of nanoparticle clusters, using fluorescence confocal microscopy while they are compressed to very high density near the two dimensional close packing density Phi similar to 0.82. We observe non-monotonic variation in both epsilon and the dynamic heterogeneity, characterized by the dynamical susceptibility chi(4) with Phi, in such high density monolayers. We provide insight into the underlying nature of such transitions in close packed high density nanoparticle monolayers in terms of the morphology and flexibility of these soft colloidal particles.. We discuss the significance our results in the context of related studies on two dimensional granular or colloidal systems. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Effect of Stress and Interface defects on Photo Luminescence of Si nano-crystals embedded in SiO2

Effect of stress and interface defects on photo luminescence property of a silicon nano-crystal (Si-nc) embedded in amorphous silicon dioxide (a-SiO2) are studied in this paper using a self-consistent quantum-continuum based modeling framework. Si-ncs or quantum dots show photoluminescence at room temperature. Whether its origin is due to Si-nc/a-SiO2 interface defects or quantum confinement of carriers in Si-nc is still an outstanding question. Earlier reports have shown that stresses greater than 12 GPa change the indirect energy band gap structure of bulk Si to a direct energy band gap structure. Such stresses are observed very often in nanostructures and these stresses influence the carrier confinement energy significantly. Hence, it is important to determine the effect of stress in addition to the structure of interface defects on photoluminescence property of Si-nc. In the present work, first a Si-nc embedded in a-SiO2 is constructed using molecular dynamics simulation framework considering the actual conditions they are grown so that the interface and residual stress in the structure evolves naturally during formation. We observe that the structure thus created has an interface of about 1 nm thick consisting of 41.95% of defective states mostly Sin+ (n = 0 to 3) coordination states. Further, both the Si-nc core and the embedding matrix are observed to be under a compressive strain. This residual strain field is applied in an effective mass k.p Hamiltonian formulation to determine the energy states of the carriers. The photo luminescence property computed based on the carrier confinement energy and interface energy states associated with defects will be analysed in details in the paper.

Interface characterization of Co2MnGe/Rh2CuSn Heusler multilayers

To address the amount of disorder and interface diffusion induced by annealing, all-Heusler multilayer structures, consisting of ferromagnetic Co2MnGe and nonmagnetic Rh2CuSn layers of varying thicknesses, have been investigated by means of hard x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and x-ray magnetic circular dichroism. We find evidence for a 4 angstrom thick magnetically dead layer that, together with the identified interlayer diffusion, are likely reasons for the unexpectedly small magnetoresistance found for current-perpendicular-to-plane giant magnetoresistance devices based on this all-Heusler system. We find that diffusion begins already at comparably low temperatures between 200 and 250 degrees C, where Mn appears to be most prone to diffusion.

Near infrared detectors based on HgSe and HgCdSe quantum dots generated at the liquid-liquid interface

HgSe and Hg0.5Cd0.5Se quantum dos (QDs) are synthesized at room temperature by a novel liquid-liquid interface method and their photodetection properties in the near-IR region are investigated. The photodetection properties of our Te-free systems are found to be comparable to those of the previously reported high performance QD vis-IR detectors including HgTe. The present synthesis indicates the cost-effectiveness of selenium based IR detectors owing to the abundance and lower toxicity of selenium compared to tellurium.

An early in-situ stress signature of the AlN-Si pre-growth interface for successful integration of nitrides with (111) Si

The integration of Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) grown group III-A nitride device stacks on Si (111) substrates is critically dependent on the quality of the first AlN buffer layer grown. A Si surface that is both oxide-free and smooth is a primary requirement for nucleating such layers. A single parameter, the AlN layer growth stress, is shown to be an early (within 50 nm), clear (<0.5 GPa versus > 1GPa), and fail-safe indicator of the pre-growth surface, and the AlN quality required for successful epitaxy. Grain coalescence model for stress generation is used to correlate growth stress, the AlN-Si interface, and crystal quality. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

Biodiversity and ecological assessments of Indian sacred groves

Sacred groves are patches of forests preserved for their spiritual and religious significance. The practice gained relevance with the spread of agriculture that caused large-scale deforestation affecting biodiversity and watersheds. Sacred groves may lose their prominence nowadays, but are still relevant in Indian rural landscapes inhabited by traditional communities. The recent rise of interest in this tradition encouraged scientific study that despite its pan-Indian distribution, focused on India's northeast, Western Ghats and east coast either for their global/regional importance or unique ecosystems. Most studies focused on flora, mainly angiosperms, and the faunal studies concentrated on vertebrates while lower life forms were grossly neglected. Studies on ecosystem functioning are few although observations are available. Most studies attributed watershed protection values to sacred groves but hardly highlighted hydrological process or water yield in comparison with other land use types. The grove studies require diversification from a stereotyped path and must move towards creating credible scientific foundations for conservation. Documentation should continue in unexplored areas but more work is needed on basic ecological functions and ecosystem dynamics to strengthen planning for scientifically sound sacred grove management.