Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

GNSS Signal Detection Under Noise Uncertainty

High sensitivity detection techniques are required for indoor navigation using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, and typically, a combination of coherent and non- coherent integration is used as the test statistic for detection. The coherent integration exploits the deterministic part of the signal and is limited due to the residual frequency error, navigation data bits and user dynamics, which are not known apriori. So, non- coherent integration, which involves squaring of the coherent integration output, is used to improve the detection sensitivity. Due to this squaring, it is robust against the artifacts introduced due to data bits and/or frequency error. However, it is susceptible to uncertainty in the noise variance, and this can lead to fundamental sensitivity limits in detecting weak signals. In this work, the performance of the conventional non-coherent integration-based GNSS signal detection is studied in the presence of noise uncertainty. It is shown that the performance of the current state of the art GNSS receivers is close to the theoretical SNR limit for reliable detection at moderate levels of noise uncertainty. Alternate robust post-coherent detectors are also analyzed, and are shown to alleviate the noise uncertainty problem. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to confirm the theoretical predictions.

Non-resonant perturbation formula for interaction impedance measurement for a folded-waveguide SWS

The non-resonant perturbation formula for the measurement of interaction impedance of a folded-waveguide slow-wave structure was derived for the relevant electromagnetic field configuration at the axis of the beam-hole of the structure. Efficacy of the theory was benchmarked through virtual measurement using 3D electromagnetic modeling in CST-studio.

Bubble size measurement in a gas-liquid ejector for a sodium chloride-air system

A high speed photographic technique has been employed to measure the Sauter mean diameter of bubbles experimentally in a gas liquid ejector using a sodium chloride-air system. The measured values are compared with the theoretically predicted maximum bubble size diameter using Sprow's correlation. Bubble size as a function of the liquid flow rate and also of its distance from the throat of the ejector has been reported in this paper. The results obtained for this non-reactive system are also compared with those obtained earlier for the air-water system.

Robust Formulations for Handling Uncertainty in Kernel Matrices

We study the problem of uncertainty in the entries of the Kernel matrix, arising in SVM formulation. Using Chance Constraint Programming and a novel large deviation inequality we derive a formulation which is robust to such noise. The resulting formulation applies when the noise is Gaussian, or has finite support. The formulation in general is non-convex, but in several cases of interest it reduces to a convex program. The problem of uncertainty in kernel matrix is motivated from the real world problem of classifying proteins when the structures are provided with some uncertainty. The formulation derived here naturally incorporates such uncertainty in a principled manner leading to significant improvements over the state of the art. 1.

Health monitoring,of a helicopter rotor in forward flight using fuzzy logic

A fuzzy logic system is developed for helicopter rotor system fault isolation. Inputs to the fuzzy logic system are measurement deviations of blade bending and torsion response and vibration from a "good" undamaged helicopter rotor. The rotor system measurements used are flap and lag bending tip deflections, elastic twist deflection at the tip, and three forces and three moments at the rotor hub. The fuzzy logic system uses rules developed from an aeroelastic model of the helicopter rotor with implanted faults to isolate the fault while accounting for uncertainty in the measurements. The faults modeled include moisture absorption, loss of trim mass, damaged lag damper, damaged pitch control system, misadjusted pitch link, and damaged flap. Tests with simulated data show that the fuzzy system isolates rotor system faults with an accuracy of about 90-100%. Furthermore, the fuzzy system is robust and gives excellent results, even when some measurements are not available. A rule-based expert system based on similar rules from the aeroelastic model performs much more poorly than the fuzzy system in the presence of high levels of uncertainty.

Measurement of 1/f noise and its application in materials science

This is a review of the measurement of I If noise in certain classes of materials which have a wide range of potential applications. This includes metal films, semi-conductors, metallic oxides and inhomogeneous systems such as composites. The review contains a basic introduction to this field, the theories and models and follows it up with a discussion on measurement methods. There are discussions on specific examples of the application of noise spectroscopy in the field of materials science. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of axial dispersion coefficient in a packed bed using X-ray

Dispersion of the liquid in a porous media is of great importance in many areas of engineering and has been studied by several researchers so far. A new experimental method has been developed to measure the dispersion coefficient. X-ray absorption technique provides a better understanding of dispersion that characterizes the mixing phenomenon in the packed beds. This is because the method is non-invasive and also it gives tracer concentration data at every point within the bed. The axial dispersion in a cylindrical bed of non-porous and non-wetting spherical particles has been measured for the flow of water. Aqueous barium chloride solution has been used a as tracer. X-ray images, recorded on a videocassette, have been analyzed using an image processing software to extract the local interstitial velocity and concentration data in the bed. Local dispersion coefficient has been determined with the help of aforementioned data. By using these data, the overall dispersion coefficient in a packed bed can also be estimated.

Methods for making prisms with submultiple or half angles: applications to the measurement of the angles of Pechan and Pellin-Broca prisms

A simple technique is devised for making prisms with submultiple or half angles. As an application of these prisms, methods are suggested to measure the angles of the Pechan and Pellin-Broca prisms without using expensive spectrometers, autocollimators, and angle gauges. (C) 2002 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Precise measurement of hyperfine intervals using avoided crossing of dressed states

We demonstrate a technique for precisely measuring hyperfine intervals in alkali atoms. The atoms form a three-level system in the presence of a strong control laser and a weak probe laser. The dressed states created by the control laser show significant linewidth reduction. We have developed a technique for Doppler-free spectroscopy that enables the separation between the dressed states to be measured with high accuracy even in room temperature atoms. The states go through an avoided crossing as the detuning of the control laser is changed from positive to negative. By studying the separation as a function of detuning, the center of the level-crossing diagram is determined with high precision, which yields the hyperfine interval. Using room temperature Rb vapor, we obtain a precision of 44 kHz. This is a significant improvement over the current precision of similar to1 MHz.

Direct measurement of phase of foreward-scattered light using polarization heterodyne interferometer

We describe direct measurement of phase of ballistic photons transmitted through objects hidden in a turbid medium using a polarization interferometer employing a rotating analyzer. The unwrapped phase difference measurements from interferometry was possible for medium levels of turbidity and accurate phase measurement from the sinusoidal intensity was not detectable when l/l* is increased beyond 4.3. The measured phase on reconstruction using standard tomographic algorithms resulted in the recovery of the refractive index profile of the object hidden in the turbid medium.

Measurement of Heat Transfer Rate on Backward-Facing Steps at Hypersonic Mach Number

Two backward-facing models with step heights of 2 and 3 mm are used to measure the convective surface heat transfer rates by using platinum thin-film gauges, deposited on Macor inserts. Heat transfer rates have been theoretically calculated along the flat plate portion of a model using the Eckert reference temperature method. The experimentally determined surface heat transfer rate distributions are compared with theoretical and numerical estimations. Experimental heat flux distribution over a flat plate model showed good agreement with the reference temperature method at stagnation enthalpy range of 0.8-2 MJ/kg. Theoretical analysis has been used for downstream of a backward-facing step using Gai's nondimensional analysis. It has been found from the present study that approximately 10 and 8 step heights are required for the flow to reattach for 2 and 3 mm step height backward-facing step models, respectively, at a nominal Mach number of 7.6.