Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Can Dufour's gland compounds honestly signal fertility in the primitively eusocial wasp Ropalidia marginata?

Unlike queens of typical primitively eusocial species, Ropalidia marginata queens are docile and non-interactive, and hence cannot be using dominance to maintain their status. It appears that the queen maintains reproductive monopoly through a pheromone, of which the Dufour's gland is at least one source. Here, we reconfirm earlier results showing that queens and workers can be correctly classified on a discriminant function using the compositions of their respective Dufour's glands, and also demonstrate consistent queen-worker differences based on categories of compounds and on single compounds also in some cases. Since the queen pheromone is expected to be an honest signal of the fecundity of a queen, we investigate the correlation of Dufour's gland compounds with ovarian activation of queens. Our study shows that Dufour's gland compounds in R. marginata correlate with the state of ovarian activation of queens, suggesting that such compounds may portray the fecundity of a queen, and may indeed function as honest signals of fertility.

Novel signal demodulation technique to estimate the amount of chirp in fiber Bragg gratings

A novel detection technique to estimate the amount of chirp in fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) is proposed. This method is based on the fact that reflectivity at central wavelength of FBG reflection changes with strain/temperature gradient (linear chirp) applied to the same. Transfer matrix approach was used to vary different grating parameters (length, strength and apodization) to optimize variation of reflectivity with linear chirp. Analysis is done for different sets of `FBG length-refractive index strength' combinations for which reflectivity vary linearly with linear chirp over a decent measurement range. This article acts as a guideline to choose appropriate grating parameters in designing sensing apparatus based on change in reflectivity at central wavelength of FBG reflection.

Chemical communication in Ropalidia marginata: Dufour's gland contains queen signal that is perceived across colonies and does not contain colony signal

Queens of the primitively eusocial wasp Ropalidia marginata appear to maintain reproductive monopoly through pheromone rather than through physical aggression. Upon queen removal, one of the workers (potential queen, PQ) becomes extremely aggressive but drops her aggression immediately upon returning the queen. If the queen is not returned, the PQ gradually drops her aggression and becomes the next queen of the colony. In a previous study, the Dufour's gland was found to be at least one source of the queen pheromone. Queen-worker classification could be done with 100% accuracy in a discriminant analysis, using the compositions of their respective Dufour's glands. In a bioassay, the PQ dropped her aggression in response to the queen's Dufour's gland macerate, suggesting that the queen's Dufour's gland contents mimicked the queen herself. In the present study, we found that the PQ also dropped her aggression in response to the macerate of a foreign queen's Dufour's gland. This suggests that the queen signal is perceived across colonies. This also suggests that the Dufour's gland in R. marginata does not contain information about nestmateship, because queens are attacked when introduced into foreign colonies, and hence PQ is not expected to reduce her aggression in response to a foreign queen's signal. The latter conclusion is especially significant because the Dufour's gland chemicals are adequate to classify individuals correctly not only on the basis of fertility status (queen versus worker) but also according to their colony membership, using discriminant analysis. This leads to the additional conclusion (and precaution) that the ability to statistically discriminate organisms using their chemical profiles does not necessarily imply that the organisms themselves can make such discrimination. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-Signal Model for Independent DG MOSFET

In this paper, we show the limitations of the traditional charge linearization techniques for modeling terminal charges of the independent double-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors. Based on our recent computationally efficient Poisson solution for independent double gate transistors, we propose a new charge linearization technique to model the terminal charges and transcapacitances. We report two different types of quasistatic large-signal models for the long-channel device. In the first type, the terminal charges are expressed as closed-form functions of the source- and drain-end inversion charge densities and found to be accurate when the potential distribution at source end of the channel is hyperbolic in nature. The second type, which is found to be accurate in all regimes of operations, is based on the quadratic spline collocation technique and requires the input voltage equation to be solved two more times, apart from the source and drain ends.

A Sub-Nyquist Sampling Method For Computing The Level-crossing-times Of An Analog Signal: Theory And Applications

We address the problem of computing the level-crossings of an analog signal from samples measured on a uniform grid. Such a problem is important, for example, in multilevel analog-to-digital (A/D) converters. The first operation in such sampling modalities is a comparator, which gives rise to a bilevel waveform. Since bilevel signals are not bandlimited, measuring the level-crossing times exactly becomes impractical within the conventional framework of Shannon sampling. In this paper, we propose a novel sub-Nyquist sampling technique for making measurements on a uniform grid and thereby for exactly computing the level-crossing times from those samples. The computational complexity of the technique is low and comprises simple arithmetic operations. We also present a finite-rate-of-innovation sampling perspective of the proposed approach and also show how exponential splines fit in naturally into the proposed sampling framework. We also discuss some concrete practical applications of the sampling technique.

MOSAICS: Multiplexed Optimal Signal Acquisition Involving Compressed Sensing

It is possible to sample signals at sub-Nyquist rate and still be able to reconstruct them with reasonable accuracy provided they exhibit local Fourier sparsity. Underdetermined systems of equations, which arise out of undersampling, have been solved to yield sparse solutions using compressed sensing algorithms. In this paper, we propose a framework for real time sampling of multiple analog channels with a single A/D converter achieving higher effective sampling rate. Signal reconstruction from noisy measurements on two different synthetic signals has been presented. A scheme of implementing the algorithm in hardware has also been suggested.

Spectral Sensing of Adaptive Frequency Hopping Signal for Cognitive Radio

The issue of dynamic spectrum scene analysis in any cognitive radio network becomes extremely complex when low probability of intercept, spread spectrum systems are present in environment. The detection and estimation become more complex if frequency hopping spread spectrum is adaptive in nature. In this paper, we propose two phase approach for detection and estimation of frequency hoping signals. Polyphase filter bank has been proposed as the architecture of choice for detection phase to efficiently detect the presence of frequency hopping signal. Based on the modeling of frequency hopping signal it can be shown that parametric methods of line spectral analysis are well suited for estimation of frequency hopping signals if the issues of order estimation and time localization are resolved. An algorithm using line spectra parameter estimation and wavelet based transient detection has been proposed which resolves above issues in computationally efficient manner suitable for implementation in cognitive radio. The simulations show promising results proving that adaptive frequency hopping signals can be detected and demodulated in a non cooperative context, even at a very low signal to noise ratio in real time.

Climate change and agricultrue-An Indian perspective

In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.

On generating optimal signal probabilities for random tests: A genetic approach

Genetic Algorithms are robust search and optimization techniques. A Genetic Algorithm based approach for determining the optimal input distributions for generating random test vectors is proposed in the paper. A cost function based on the COP testability measure for determining the efficacy of the input distributions is discussed, A brief overview of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and the specific details of our implementation are described. Experimental results based on ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits are presented. The performance pf our GA-based approach is compared with previous results. While the GA generates more efficient input distributions than the previous methods which are based on gradient descent search, the overheads of the GA in computing the input distributions are larger. To account for the relatively quick convergence of the gradient descent methods, we analyze the landscape of the COP-based cost function. We prove that the cost function is unimodal in the search space. This feature makes the cost function amenable to optimization by gradient-descent techniques as compared to random search methods such as Genetic Algorithms.