187 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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Screening and early identification of primary immunodeficiency disease (PID) genes is a major challenge for physicians. Many resources have catalogued molecular alterations in known PID genes along with their associated clinical and immunological phenotypes. However, these resources do not assist in identifying candidate PID genes. We have recently developed a platform designated Resource of Asian PDIs, which hosts information pertaining to molecular alterations, protein-protein interaction networks, mouse studies and microarray gene expression profiling of all known PID genes. Using this resource as a discovery tool, we describe the development of an algorithm for prediction of candidate PID genes. Using a support vector machine learning approach, we have predicted 1442 candidate PID genes using 69 binary features of 148 known PID genes and 3162 non-PID genes as a training data set. The power of this approach is illustrated by the fact that six of the predicted genes have recently been experimentally confirmed to be PID genes. The remaining genes in this predicted data set represent attractive candidates for testing in patients where the etiology cannot be ascribed to any of the known PID genes.

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The present, paper deals with the CAE-based study Of impact of jacketed projectiles on single- and multi-layered metal armour plates using LS-DYNA. The validation of finite element modelling procedure is mainly based on the mesh convergence study using both shell and solid elements for representing single-layered mild steel target plates. It, is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and the strain rate-dependent material properties are essential for all accurate prediction of projectile residual velocity. The modelling requirements are initially arrived at by correlating against test residual velocities for single-layered mild steel plates of different depths at impact velocities in the ran.-c of approximately 800-870 m/s. The efficacy of correlation is adjudged, in terms of a 'correlation index', defined in the paper: for which values close to unity are desirable. The experience gained for single-layered plates is next; used in simulating projectile impacts on multi-layered mild steel target plates and once again a high degree of correlation with experimental residual velocities is observed. The study is repeated for single- and multi-layered aluminium target plates with a similar level of success in test residual velocity prediction. TO the authors' best knowledge, the present comprehensive study shows in particular for the first time that, with a. proper modelling approach, LS-DYNA can be used with a great degree of confidence in designing perforation-resistant single and multi-layered metallic armour plates.

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A health-monitoring and life-estimation strategy for composite rotor blades is developed in this work. The cross-sectional stiffness reduction obtained by physics-based models is expressed as a function of the life of the structure using a recent phenomenological damage model. This stiffness reduction is further used to study the behavior of measurable system parameters such as blade deflections, loads, and strains of a composite rotor blade in static analysis and forward flight. The simulated measurements are obtained using an aeroelastic analysis of the composite rotor blade based on the finite element in space and time with physics-based damage modes that are then linked to the life consumption of the blade. The model-based measurements are contaminated with noise to simulate real data. Genetic fuzzy systems are developed for global online prediction of physical damage and life consumption using displacement- and force-based measurement deviations between damaged and undamaged conditions. Furthermore, local online prediction of physical damage and life consumption is done using strains measured along the blade length. It is observed that the life consumption in the matrix-cracking zone is about 12-15% and life consumption in debonding/delamination zone is about 45-55% of the total life of the blade. It is also observed that the success rate of the genetic fuzzy systems depends upon the number of measurements, type of measurements and training, and the testing noise level. The genetic fuzzy systems work quite well with noisy data and are recommended for online structural health monitoring of composite helicopter rotor blades.

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The present study examines the shrinkage behaviour of residually derived black cotton (BC) soil and red soil compacted specimens that were subjected to air-drying from the swollen state. The soil specimens were compacted at varying dry density and moisture contents to simulate varied field conditions. The void ratio and moisture content of the swollen specimens were monitored during the drying process and relationship between them is analyzed. Shrinkage is represented as reduction in void ratio with decrease in water content of soil specimens. It is found to occur in three distinct stages. Total shrinkage magnitude depends on the type of clay mineral present. Variation in compaction conditions effect marginally total shrinkage magnitudes of BC soil specimens but have relatively more effect on red soil specimens. A linear relation is obtained between total shrinkage magnitude and volumetric water content of soil specimens in swollen state and can be used to predict the shrinkage magnitude of soils.

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The determination of the overconsolidation ratio (OCR) of clay deposits is an important task in geotechnical engineering practice. This paper examines the potential of a support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the OCR of clays from piezocone penetration test data. SVM is a statistical learning theory based on a structural risk minimization principle that minimizes both error and weight terms. The five input variables used for the SVM model for prediction of OCR are the corrected cone resistance (qt), vertical total stress (sigmav), hydrostatic pore pressure (u0), pore pressure at the cone tip (u1), and the pore pressure just above the cone base (u2). Sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the relative importance of each of the input parameters. From the sensitivity analysis, it is clear that qt=primary in situ data influenced by OCR followed by sigmav, u0, u2, and u1. Comparison between SVM and some of the traditional interpretation methods is also presented. The results of this study have shown that the SVM approach has the potential to be a practical tool for determination of OCR.

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We explore the fuse of information on co-occurrence of domains in multi-domain proteins in predicting protein-protein interactions. The basic premise of our work is the assumption that domains co-occurring in a polypeptide chain undergo either structural or functional interactions among themselves. In this study we use a template dataset of domains in multidomain proteins and predict protein-protein interactions in a target organism. We note that maximum number of correct predictions of interacting protein domain families (158) is made in S. cerevisiae when the dataset of closely related organisms is used as the template followed by the more diverse dataset of bacterial proteins (48) and a dataset of randomly chosen proteins (23). We conclude that use of multi-domain information from organisms closely-related to the target can aid prediction of interacting protein families.

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In this article, a new flame extinction model based on the k/epsilon turbulence time scale concept is proposed to predict the flame liftoff heights over a wide range of coflow temperature and O-2 mass fraction of the coflow. The flame is assumed to be quenched, when the fluid time scale is less than the chemical time scale ( Da < 1). The chemical time scale is derived as a function of temperature, oxidizer mass fraction, fuel dilution, velocity of the jet and fuel type. The present extinction model has been tested for a variety of conditions: ( a) ambient coflow conditions ( 1 atm and 300 K) for propane, methane and hydrogen jet flames, ( b) highly preheated coflow, and ( c) high temperature and low oxidizer concentration coflow. Predicted flame liftoff heights of jet diffusion and partially premixed flames are in excellent agreement with the experimental data for all the simulated conditions and fuels. It is observed that flame stabilization occurs at a point near the stoichiometric mixture fraction surface, where the local flow velocity is equal to the local flame propagation speed. The present method is used to determine the chemical time scale for the conditions existing in the mild/ flameless combustion burners investigated by the authors earlier. This model has successfully predicted the initial premixing of the fuel with combustion products before the combustion reaction initiates. It has been inferred from these numerical simulations that fuel injection is followed by intense premixing with hot combustion products in the primary zone and combustion reaction follows further downstream. Reaction rate contours suggest that reaction takes place over a large volume and the magnitude of the combustion reaction is lower compared to the conventional combustion mode. The appearance of attached flames in the mild combustion burners at low thermal inputs is also predicted, which is due to lower average jet velocity and larger residence times in the near injection zone.

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A fatigue crack propagation model for concrete is proposed based on the concepts of fracture mechanics. This model takes into account the loading history, frequency of applied load, and size, effect parameters. Using this model, a method is described based on linear elastic fracture mechanics to assess the residual strength of cracked plain and reinforced concrete (RC) beams. This could be used to predict the residual strength (load carrying capacity) of cracked or damaged plain and reinforced concrete beams at a given level of damage. It has been seen that the fatigue crack propagation rate increases as. the size of plain concrete, beam increases indicating an increase in brittleness. In reinforced concrete (RC) beams, the fracture process becomes stable only when the beam is sufficiently reinforced.

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The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Asian elephants (Dephas maximus), prominent ``flagship species'', arelisted under the category of endangered species (EN - A2c, ver. 3.1, IUCN Red List 2009) and there is a need for their conservation This requires understanding demographic and reproductive dynamics of the species. Monitoring reproductive status of any species is traditionally being carried out through invasive blood sampling and this is restrictive for large animals such as wild or semi-captive elephants due to legal. ethical, and practical reasons Hence. there is a need for a non-invasive technique to assess reproductive cyclicity profiles of elephants. which will help in the species' conservation strategies In this study. we developed an indirect competitive enzyme linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA) to estimate the concentration of one of the progesterone-metabolites i.e, allopregnanolone (5 alpha-P-3OH) in fecal samples of As elephants We validated the assay which had a sensitivity of 0.25 mu M at 90% binding with an EC50 value of 1 37 mu M Using female elephants. kept under semi-captive conditions in the forest camps of Mudumalar Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu and Bandipur National Park, Karnataka, India. we measured fecal progesterone-metabolite (5 alpha-P-3OH) concentrations in six an and showed their clear correlation with those of scrum progesterone measured by a standard radio-immuno assay. Statistical analyses using a Linear Mixed Effect model showed a positive correlation (P < 0 1) between the profiles of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH (range 0 5-10 mu g/g) and serum progesterone (range: 0 1-1 8 ng/mL) Therefore, our studies show, for the first time, that the fecal progesterone-metabolite assay could be exploited to predict estrus cyclicity and to potentially assess the reproductive status of captive and free-ranging female Asian elephants, thereby helping to plan their breeding strategy (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc.All rights reserved.

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Background: MHC/HLA class II molecules are important components of the immune system and play a critical role in processes such as phagocytosis. Understanding peptide recognition properties of the hundreds of MHC class II alleles is essential to appreciate determinants of antigenicity and ultimately to predict epitopes. While there are several methods for epitope prediction, each differing in their success rates, there are no reports so far in the literature to systematically characterize the binding sites at the structural level and infer recognition profiles from them. Results: Here we report a new approach to compare the binding sites of MHC class II molecules using their three dimensional structures. We use a specifically tuned version of our recent algorithm, PocketMatch. We show that our methodology is useful for classification of MHC class II molecules based on similarities or differences among their binding sites. A new module has been used to define binding sites in MHC molecules. Comparison of binding sites of 103 MHC molecules, both at the whole groove and individual sub-pocket levels has been carried out, and their clustering patterns analyzed. While clusters largely agree with serotypic classification, deviations from it and several new insights are obtained from our study. We also present how differences in sub-pockets of molecules associated with a pair of autoimmune diseases, narcolepsy and rheumatoid arthritis, were captured by PocketMatch(13). Conclusion: The systematic framework for understanding structuralvariations in MHC class II molecules enables large scale comparison of binding grooves and sub-pockets, which is likely to have direct implications towards predicting epitopes and understanding peptide binding preferences.

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Background: MHC/HLA class II molecules are important components of the immune system and play a critical role in processes such as phagocytosis. Understanding peptide recognition properties of the hundreds of MHC class II alleles is essential to appreciate determinants of antigenicity and ultimately to predict epitopes. While there are several methods for epitope prediction, each differing in their success rates, there are no reports so far in the literature to systematically characterize the binding sites at the structural level and infer recognition profiles from them. Results: Here we report a new approach to compare the binding sites of MHC class II molecules using their three dimensional structures. We use a specifically tuned version of our recent algorithm, PocketMatch. We show that our methodology is useful for classification of MHC class II molecules based on similarities or differences among their binding sites. A new module has been used to define binding sites in MHC molecules. Comparison of binding sites of 103 MHC molecules, both at the whole groove and individual sub-pocket levels has been carried out, and their clustering patterns analyzed. While clusters largely agree with serotypic classification, deviations from it and several new insights are obtained from our study. We also present how differences in sub-pockets of molecules associated with a pair of autoimmune diseases, narcolepsy and rheumatoid arthritis, were captured by PocketMatch(13). Conclusion: The systematic framework for understanding structural variations in MHC class II molecules enables large scale comparison of binding grooves and sub-pockets, which is likely to have direct implications towards predicting epitopes and understanding peptide binding preferences.

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Masonry strength is dependent upon characteristics of the masonry unit,the mortar and the bond between them. Empirical formulae as well as analytical and finite element (FE) models have been developed to predict structural behaviour of masonry. This paper is focused on developing a three dimensional non-linear FE model based on micro-modelling approach to predict masonry prism compressive strength and crack pattern. The proposed FE model uses multi-linear stress-strain relationships to model the non-linear behaviour of solid masonry unit and the mortar. Willam-Warnke's five parameter failure theory developed for modelling the tri-axial behaviour of concrete has been adopted to model the failure of masonry materials. The post failure regime has been modelled by applying orthotropic constitutive equations based on the smeared crack approach. Compressive strength of the masonry prism predicted by the proposed FE model has been compared with experimental values as well as the values predicted by other failure theories and Eurocode formula. The crack pattern predicted by the FE model shows vertical splitting cracks in the prism. The FE model predicts the ultimate failure compressive stress close to 85 of the mean experimental compressive strength value.

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The swelling pressure of soil depends upon various soil parameters such as mineralogy, clay content, Atterberg's limits, dry density, moisture content, initial degree of saturation, etc. along with structural and environmental factors. It is very difficult to model and analyze swelling pressure effectively taking all the above aspects into consideration. Various statistical/empirical methods have been attempted to predict the swelling pressure based on index properties of soil. In this paper, the computational intelligence techniques artificial neural network and support vector machine have been used to develop models based on the set of available experimental results to predict swelling pressure from the inputs; natural moisture content, dry density, liquid limit, plasticity index, and clay fraction. The generalization of the model to new set of data other than the training set of data is discussed which is required for successful application of a model. A detailed study of the relative performance of the computational intelligence techniques has been carried out based on different statistical performance criteria.

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The swelling pressure of soil depends upon various soil parameters such as mineralogy, clay content, Atterberg's limits, dry density, moisture content, initial degree of saturation, etc. along with structural and environmental factors. It is very difficult to model and analyze swelling pressure effectively taking all the above aspects into consideration. Various statistical/empirical methods have been attempted to predict the swelling pressure based on index properties of soil. In this paper, the computational intelligence techniques artificial neural network and support vector machine have been used to develop models based on the set of available experimental results to predict swelling pressure from the inputs; natural moisture content, dry density, liquid limit, plasticity index, and clay fraction. The generalization of the model to new set of data other than the training set of data is discussed which is required for successful application of a model. A detailed study of the relative performance of the computational intelligence techniques has been carried out based on different statistical performance criteria.