Towards building an intelligent decision support system for project management

Management of large projects, especially the ones in which a major component of R&D is involved and those requiring knowledge from diverse specialised and sophisticated fields, may be classified as semi-structured problems. In these problems, there is some knowledge about the nature of the work involved, but there are also uncertainties associated with emerging technologies. In order to draw up a plan and schedule of activities of such a large and complex project, the project manager is faced with a host of complex decisions that he has to take, such as, when to start an activity, for how long the activity is likely to continue, etc. An Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) which aids the manager in decision making and drawing up a feasible schedule of activities while taking into consideration the constraints of resources and time, will have a considerable impact on the efficient management of the project. This report discusses the design of an IDSS that helps in project planning phase through the scheduling phase. The IDSS uses a new project scheduling tool, the Project Influence Graph (PIG).

Strategies for Rescheduling Tightly-Coupled Parallel Applications in Multi-Cluster Grids

As computational Grids are increasingly used for executing long running multi-phase parallel applications, it is important to develop efficient rescheduling frameworks that adapt application execution in response to resource and application dynamics. In this paper, three strategies or algorithms have been developed for deciding when and where to reschedule parallel applications that execute on multi-cluster Grids. The algorithms derive rescheduling plans that consist of potential points in application execution for rescheduling and schedules of resources for application execution between two consecutive rescheduling points. Using large number of simulations, it is shown that the rescheduling plans developed by the algorithms can lead to large decrease in application execution times when compared to executions without rescheduling on dynamic Grid resources. The rescheduling plans generated by the algorithms are also shown to be competitive when compared to the near-optimal plans generated by brute-force methods. Of the algorithms, genetic algorithm yielded the most efficient rescheduling plans with 9-12% smaller average execution times than the other algorithms.

Solar energy potential assessment using GIS

Renewable energy resources are those having a cycling time less than 100 years and are renewed by the nature and their supply exceeds the rate of consumption. Renewable energy systems use resources that are constantly replaced in nature and are usually less polluting. In order to tap the potential of renewable energy sources, there is a need to assess the availability of resources spatially as well as temporally. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) along with Remote Sensing (RS) helps in mapping on spatial and temporal scales of the resources and demand. The spatial database of resource availability and the demand would help in the regional energy planning. This paper discusses the application of geographical information system (GIS) to map the solar potential in Karnataka state, India. Regions suitable for tapping solar energy are mapped on the basis of global solar radiation data, and this analysis provides a picture of the potential. The study identifies that Coastal parts of Karnataka with the higher global solar radiation is ideally suited for harvesting solar energy. The potential analysis reveals that, maximum global solar radiation is in districts such as Uttara Kannada and Dakshina Kannada. Global solar radiation in Uttara Kannada during summer, monsoon and winter are 6.31, 4.40 and 5.48 kWh/sq.m, respectively. Similarly, Dakshina Kannada has 6.16, 3.89 and 5.21 kWh/sq.m during summer, monsoon and winter.

Community-based Natural Resource Management: Issues and Cases from South Asia

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is the joint management of natural resources by a community based on a community strategy, through a participatory mechanism involving all legitimate stakeholders. The approach is community-based in that the communities managing the resources have the legal rights, the local institutions and the economic incentives to take substantial responsibility for sustained use of these resources. This implies that the community plays an active role in the management of natural resources, not because it asserts sole ownership over them, but because it can claim participation in their management and benefits for practical and technical reasons1–4. This approach emerged as the dominant conservation concept in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the disillusionment with the developmental state. Governments across South and South East Asia, Africa and Latin America have adopted and implemented CBNRM in various ways, viz. through sectoral programmes such as forestry, irrigation or wildlife management, multisectoral programmes such as watershed development and efforts towards political devolution. In India, the principle of decentralization through ‘gram swaraj’ was introduced by Mahatma Gandhi. The 73rd and 74th constitution amendments in 1992 gave impetus to the decentralized planning at panchayat levels through the creation of a statutory three-level local self-government structure5,6. The strength of this book is that it includes chapters by CBNRM advocates based on six seemingly innovative initiatives being implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in ecologically vulnerable regions of South Asia: two in the Himalayas (watershed development programme in Lingmutechhu, Bhuthan and Thalisain tehsil, Paudi Grahwal District, Uttarakhand), three in semi-arid parts of western India (watershed development in Hivre Bazar, Maharashtra and Nathugadh village, Gujarat and water-harvesting structures in Gopalapura, Rajasthan) and one in the flood-plains of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna (Char land, Galibanda and Jamalpur districts, Bangladesh). Watersheds in semi-arid regions fall in the low-rainfall region (500–700 mm) and suffer the vagaries of drought 2–3 years in every five-year cycle. In all these locations, the major occupation is agriculture, most of which is rainfed or dry. The other two cases (in Uttarakhand) fall in the Himalayan region (temperate/sub-temperate climate), which has witnessed extensive deforestation in the last century and is now considered as one of the most vulnerable locations in South Asia. Terraced agriculture is being practised in these locations for a long time. The last case (Gono Chetona) falls in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna charlands which are the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the sub-continent with constantly changing landscape. Agriculture and livestock rearing are the main occupations, and there is substantial seasonal emigration for wage labour by the adult males. River erosion and floods force the people to adopt a semi-migratory lifestyle. The book attempts to analyse the potential as well as limitations of NGOdriven CBNRM endeavours across agroclimatic regions of South Asia with emphasis on four intrinsically linked normative concerns, namely sustainability, livelihood enhancement, equity and demographic decentralization in chapters 2–7. Comparative analysis of these case studies done in chapter 8, highlights the issues that require further research while portraying the strengths and limits of NGO-driven CBNRM. In Hivre Bazar, the post-watershed intervention scenario is such that farmers often grow three crops in a year – kharif bajra, rabi jowar and summer vegetable crops. Productivity has increased in the dry lands due to improvement in soil moisture levels. The revival of johads in Gopalpura has led to the proliferation of wheat and increased productivity. In Lingmuteychhu, productivity gains have also arisen, but more due to the introduction of both local and high-yielding, new varieties as opposed to increased water availability. In the case of Gono Chetona, improvements have come due to diversification of agriculture; for example, the promotion of vegetable gardens. CBNRM interventions in most cases have also led to new avenues of employment and income generation. The synthesis shows that CBNRM efforts have made significant contributions to livelihood enhancement and only limited gains in terms of collective action for sustainable and equitable access to benefits and continuing resource use, and in terms of democratic decentralization, contrary to the objectives of the programme. Livelihood benefits include improvements in availability of livelihood support resources (fuelwood, fodder, drinking water), increased productivity (including diversification of cropping pattern) in agriculture and allied activities, and new sources of livelihood. However, NGO-driven CBNRM has not met its goal of providing ‘alternative’ forms of ‘development’ due to impediments of state policy, short-sighted vision of implementers and confrontation with the socio-ecological reality of the region, which almost always are that of fragmented communities (or communities in flux) with unequal dependence and access to land and other natural resources along with great gender imbalances. Appalling, however, is the general absence of recognition of the importance of and the will to explore practical ways to bring about equitable resource transfer or benefit-sharing and the consequent innovations in this respect that are evident in the pioneering community initiatives such as pani panchayat, etc. Pertaining to the gains on the ecological sustainability front, Hivre Bazar and Thalisain initiatives through active participation of villagers have made significant regeneration of the water table within the village, and mechanisms such as ban on number of bore wells, the regulation of cropping pattern, restrictions on felling of trees and free grazing to ensure that in the future, the groundwater is neither over-exploited nor its recharge capability impaired. Nevertheless, the longterm sustainability of the interventions in the case of Ghoga and Gopalpura initiatives as the focus has been mostly on regeneration of resources, and less on regulating the use of regenerated resources. Further, in Lingmuteychhu and Gono Chetona, the interventions are mainly household-based and the focus has been less explicit on ecological components. The studies demonstrate the livelihood benefits to all of the interventions and significant variation in achievements with reference to sustainability, equity and democratic decentralization depending on the level and extent of community participation apart from the vision of implementers, strategy (or nature of intervention shaped by the question of community formation), the centrality of community formation and also the State policy. Case studies show that the influence of State policy is multi-faceted and often contradictory in nature. This necessitates NGOs to engage with the State in a much more purposeful way than in an ‘autonomous space’. Thus the role of NGOs in CBNRM is complementary, wherein they provide innovative experiments that the State can learn. This helps in achieving the goals of CBNRM through democratic decentralization. The book addresses the vital issues related to natural resource management and interests of the community. Key topics discussed throughout the book are still at the centre of the current debate. This compilation consists of well-written chapters based on rigorous synthesis of CBNRM case studies, which will serve as good references for students, researchers and practitioners in the years to come.

A resource based game theoretical model for military conflicts

A resource interaction based game theoretical model for military conflicts is presented in this paper. The model includes both the spatial decision capability of adversaries (decision regarding movement and subsequent distribution of resources) as well as their temporal decision capability (decision regarding level of allocation of resources for conflict with adversary’s resources). Attrition is decided at present by simple deterministic models. An additional feature of this model is the inclusion of the possibility of a given resource interacting with several resources of the adversary.The decisions of the adversaries is determined by solving for the equilibrium Nash strategies given that the objectives of the adversaries may not be in direct conflict. Examples are given to show the applicability of these models and solution concepts.

Fuzzy inference based data preprocessing for VBR video traffic prediction

Prediction of variable bit rate compressed video traffic is critical to dynamic allocation of resources in a network. In this paper, we propose a technique for preprocessing the dataset used for training a video traffic predictor. The technique involves identifying the noisy instances in the data using a fuzzy inference system. We focus on three prediction techniques, namely, linear regression, neural network and support vector regression and analyze their performance on H.264 video traces. Our experimental results reveal that data preprocessing greatly improves the performance of linear regression and neural network, but is not effective on support vector regression.

Renewable energy and energy conservation technologies

Energy systems should be consistent with environmental, economic and social sustainability in order to ensure regional sustainable development. This enhances both current and future potential to meet the human needs and aspirations. Sustainable development, a process of change, in which, the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments , the orientation of technological development and institutional change are in harmony. National energy programme should prioritize the development of renewable energy sources, which offer the potentially huge sources of primary energy. The path for sustainability in the next millennium is the low energy path through wise use of energy. Energy conservation and energy efficiency measures would certainly result in meeting the energy demand with as little as half the primary supply at current levels. This requires profound structural changes in socio-economic and institutional arrangements. Environmentally sound, technically and economically viable energy pathways will sustain human progress in the long term future giving a fair and equitable share of the underprivileged and poor of the developing countries. Renewable energy is considered by some as the only hope for the survival of planet yet by others it is viewed as a marginal resource with limited resource. All too often, however, the facts behind the role that renewable energy can, and will, play in the regional energy scene are disguised or ignored as rival camps distort the evidence to suit their own objectives. It was in the light of this confusion that the Energy Research Group at Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science undertook investigation in Kolar and Uttara Kannada Districts in Karnataka State, India to identify the potential contribution of several types of renewable energy sources: Solar, Wind, Hydro, Bioenergy, etc.

Cooperative Profit Sharing in Coalition-Based Resource Allocation in Wireless Networks

We consider a network in which several service providers offer wireless access to their respective subscribed customers through potentially multihop routes. If providers cooperate by jointly deploying and pooling their resources, such as spectrum and infrastructure (e.g., base stations) and agree to serve each others' customers, their aggregate payoffs, and individual shares, may substantially increase through opportunistic utilization of resources. The potential of such cooperation can, however, be realized only if each provider intelligently determines with whom it would cooperate, when it would cooperate, and how it would deploy and share its resources during such cooperation. Also, developing a rational basis for sharing the aggregate payoffs is imperative for the stability of the coalitions. We model such cooperation using the theory of transferable payoff coalitional games. We show that the optimum cooperation strategy, which involves the acquisition, deployment, and allocation of the channels and base stations (to customers), can be computed as the solution of a concave or an integer optimization. We next show that the grand coalition is stable in many different settings, i.e., if all providers cooperate, there is always an operating point that maximizes the providers' aggregate payoff, while offering each a share that removes any incentive to split from the coalition. The optimal cooperation strategy and the stabilizing payoff shares can be obtained in polynomial time by respectively solving the primals and the duals of the above optimizations, using distributed computations and limited exchange of confidential information among the providers. Numerical evaluations reveal that cooperation substantially enhances individual providers' payoffs under the optimal cooperation strategy and several different payoff sharing rules.

Resource Usage Monitoring in Clouds

Monitoring of infrastructural resources in clouds plays a crucial role in providing application guarantees like performance, availability, and security. Monitoring is crucial from two perspectives - the cloud-user and the service provider. The cloud user’s interest is in doing an analysis to arrive at appropriate Service-level agreement (SLA) demands and the cloud provider’s interest is to assess if the demand can be met. To support this, a monitoring framework is necessary particularly since cloud hosts are subject to varying load conditions. To illustrate the importance of such a framework, we choose the example of performance being the Quality of Service (QoS) requirement and show how inappropriate provisioning of resources may lead to unexpected performance bottlenecks. We evaluate existing monitoring frameworks to bring out the motivation for building much more powerful monitoring frameworks. We then propose a distributed monitoring framework, which enables fine grained monitoring for applications and demonstrate with a prototype system implementation for typical use cases.

Mobile agent based node monitoring protocol for MANETs

Mobile ad-hoc network is a wireless ad-hoc network with dynamic network topology. The Dynamicity, due to the random node movement, and scarcity of resources lead to a challenge in monitoring the nodes in a MANET. Monitoring the lack of resources (bandwidth, buffer, and energy), misbehavior, and mobility at node level remains, a challenge. In a MANET the proposed protocol uses both static as well as mobile agents, where the mobile agents migrate to different clusters of the zones respectively, collect the node status information periodically, and provide a high level information to the static agent (which resides at the central node) by analyzing the raw information at the nodes. This, in turn, reduces the network traffic and conserves the workload of the central node, where a static agent is available with high level information and in coordination with other modules. The protocol has been tested in different size MANETs with variable number of nodes and applications. The results shown in the simulation indicates the effectiveness of the protocol.

Improving GPGPU Concurrency with Elastic Kernels

Each new generation of GPUs vastly increases the resources available to GPGPU programs. GPU programming models (like CUDA) were designed to scale to use these resources. However, we find that CUDA programs actually do not scale to utilize all available resources, with over 30% of resources going unused on average for programs of the Parboil2 suite that we used in our work. Current GPUs therefore allow concurrent execution of kernels to improve utilization. In this work, we study concurrent execution of GPU kernels using multiprogram workloads on current NVIDIA Fermi GPUs. On two-program workloads from the Parboil2 benchmark suite we find concurrent execution is often no better than serialized execution. We identify that the lack of control over resource allocation to kernels is a major serialization bottleneck. We propose transformations that convert CUDA kernels into elastic kernels which permit fine-grained control over their resource usage. We then propose several elastic-kernel aware concurrency policies that offer significantly better performance and concurrency compared to the current CUDA policy. We evaluate our proposals on real hardware using multiprogrammed workloads constructed from benchmarks in the Parboil 2 suite. On average, our proposals increase system throughput (STP) by 1.21x and improve the average normalized turnaround time (ANTT) by 3.73x for two-program workloads when compared to the current CUDA concurrency implementation.

Flexibility in Food Extraction Techniques in Urban Free-Ranging Bonnet Macaques, Macaca radiata

Non-human primate populations, other than responding appropriately to naturally occurring challenges, also need to cope with anthropogenic factors such as environmental pollution, resource depletion, and habitat destruction. Populations and individuals are likely to show considerable variations in food extraction abilities, with some populations and individuals more efficient than others at exploiting a set of resources. In this study, we examined among urban free-ranging bonnet macaques, Macaca radiata (a) local differences in food extraction abilities, (b) between-individual variation and within-individual consistency in problem-solving success and the underlying problem-solving characteristics, and (c) behavioral patterns associated with higher efficiency in food extraction. When presented with novel food extraction tasks, the urban macaques having more frequent exposure to novel physical objects in their surroundings, extracted food material from PET bottles and also solved another food extraction task (i.e., extracting an orange from a wire mesh box), more often than those living under more natural conditions. Adults solved the tasks more frequently than juveniles, and females more frequently than males. Both solution-technique and problem-solving characteristics varied across individuals but remained consistent within each individual across the successive presentations of PET bottles. The macaques that solved the tasks showed lesser within-individual variation in their food extraction behavior as compared to those that failed to solve the tasks. A few macaques appropriately modified their problem-solving behavior in accordance with the task requirements and solved the modified versions of the tasks without trial-and-error learning. These observations are ecologically relevant - they demonstrate considerable local differences in food extraction abilities, between-individual variation and within-individual consistency in food extraction techniques among free-ranging bonnet macaques, possibly affecting the species' local adaptability and resilience to environmental changes.

PriDyn: Enabling Differentiated I/O Services in Cloud Using Dynamic Priorities

Virtualization is one of the key enabling technologies for Cloud computing. Although it facilitates improved utilization of resources, virtualization can lead to performance degradation due to the sharing of physical resources like CPU, memory, network interfaces, disk controllers, etc. Multi-tenancy can cause highly unpredictable performance for concurrent I/O applications running inside virtual machines that share local disk storage in Cloud. Disk I/O requests in a typical Cloud setup may have varied requirements in terms of latency and throughput as they arise from a range of heterogeneous applications having diverse performance goals. This necessitates providing differential performance services to different I/O applications. In this paper, we present PriDyn, a novel scheduling framework which is designed to consider I/O performance metrics of applications such as acceptable latency and convert them to an appropriate priority value for disk access based on the current system state. This framework aims to provide differentiated I/O service to various applications and ensures predictable performance for critical applications in multi-tenant Cloud environment. We demonstrate through experimental validations on real world I/O traces that this framework achieves appreciable enhancements in I/O performance, indicating that this approach is a promising step towards enabling QoS guarantees on Cloud storage.

Regional research priorities in brain and nervous system disorders

The characteristics of neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders in low-and middle-income countries are unique and the burden that they have will be different from country to country. Many of the differences are explained by the wide variation in population demographics and size, poverty, conflict, culture, land area and quality, and genetics. Neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders that result from, or are worsened by, a lack of adequate nutrition and infectious disease still afflict much of sub-Saharan Africa, although disorders related to increasing longevity, such as stroke, are on the rise. In the Middle East and North Africa, major depressive disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder are a primary concern because of the conflict-ridden environment. Consanguinity is a serious concern that leads to the high prevalence of recessive disorders in the Middle East and North Africa and possibly other regions. The burden of these disorders in Latin American and Asian countries largely surrounds stroke and vascular disease, dementia and lifestyle factors that are influenced by genetics. Although much knowledge has been gained over the past 10 years, the epidemiology of the conditions in low-and middle-income countries still needs more research. Prevention and treatments could be better informed with more longitudinal studies of risk factors. Challenges and opportunities for ameliorating nervous-system disorders can benefit from both local and regional research collaborations. The lack of resources and infrastructure for health-care and related research, both in terms of personnel and equipment, along with the stigma associated with the physical or behavioural manifestations of some disorders have hampered progress in understanding the disease burden and improving brain health. Individual countries, and regions within countries, have specific needs in terms of research priorities.