CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Distribution, relative abundance, and conservation status of Asian elephants in Karnataka, southern India

Karnataka state in southern India supports a globally significant and the country's largest population of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus. A reliable map of Asian elephant distribution and measures of spatial variation in their abundance, both vital needs for conservation and management action, are unavailable not only in Karnataka, but across its global range. Here, we use various data gathered between 2000 and 2015 to map the distribution of elephants in Karnataka at the scale of the smallest forest management unit, the `beat', while also presenting data on elephant dung density for a subset of `elephant beats.' Elephants occurred in 972 out of 2855 forest beats of Karnataka. Sixty percent of these 972 beats and 55% of the forest habitat lay outside notified protected areas (PM), and included lands designated for agricultural production and human dwelling. While median elephant dung density inside protected areas was nearly thrice as much as outside, elephants routinely occurred in or used habitats outside PM where human density, land fraction under cultivation, and the interface between human-dominated areas and forests were greater. Based on our data, it is clear that India's framework for elephant conservation which legally protects the species wherever it occurs, but protects only some of its habitats while being appropriate in furthering their conservation within PM, seriously falters in situations where elephants reside in and/or seasonally use areas outside PAs. Attempts to further elephant conservation in production and dwelling areas have extracted high costs in human, elephant, material and monetary terms in Karnataka. In such settings, conservation planning exercises are necessary to determine where the needs of elephants or humans must take priority over the other, and to achieve that in a manner that is based not only on reliable scientific data but also on a process of public reasoning. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.

How much Dillenia indica seed predation occurs from Asian elephant dung?

Elephants are thought to be effective seed dispersers, but research on whether elephant dung effectively protects seeds from seed predation is lacking. Quantifying rates of seed predation from elephant dung will facilitate comparisons between elephants and alternative dispersers, helping us understand the functional role of megaherbivores in ecosystems. We conducted an experiment to quantify the predation of Dillenia indica seeds from elephant dung in Buxa Reserve, India from December 2012 to April 2013. Using dung boluses from the same dung pile, we compared the number of seeds in boluses that are a) opened immediately upon detection (control boluses), b) made available only to small seed predators (<= 3 mm wide) for 1-4 months, and c) made available to all seed predators and secondary dispersers for 1-4 months. Using a model built on this experiment, we estimated that seed predation by small seed predators (most likely ants and termites) destroys between 82.9% and 96.4% of seeds in elephant dung between the time of defecation and the median germination date for D. indica. Exposure to larger seed predators and secondary dispersers did not lead to a significant additional reduction in the number of seeds per dung bolus. Our findings suggest that post-dispersal seed predation by small insects (<3 mm) substantially reduces but does not eliminate the success of elephants as dispersers of D. indica in a tropical moist forest habitat. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Strength reliability and in vitro degradation of three-dimensional powder printed strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds

Strontium ions (Sr2+) are known to prevent osteoporosis and also encourage bone formation. Such twin requirements have motivated researchers to develop Sr-substituted biomaterials for orthopaedic applications. The present study demonstrates a new concept of developing Sr-substituted Mg-3(PO4)(2) - based biodegradable scaffolds. In particular, this work reports the fabrication, mechanical properties with an emphasis on strength reliability as well as in vitro degradation of highly biodegradable strontium-incorporated magnesium phosphate cements. These implantable scaffolds were fabricated using three-dimensional powder printing, followed by high temperature sintering and/or chemical conversion, a technique adaptable to develop patient-specific implants. A moderate combination of strength properties of 36.7 MPa (compression), 242 MPa (bending) and 10.7 MPa (tension) were measured. A reasonably modest Weibull modulus of up to 8.8 was recorded after uniaxial compression or diametral tensile tests on 3D printed scaffolds. A comparison among scaffolds with varying compositions or among sintered or chemically hardened scaffolds reveals that the strength reliability is not compromised in Sr-substituted scaffolds compared to baseline Mg-3(PO4)(2). The micro-computed tomography analysis reveals the presence of highly interconnected porous architecture in three-dimension with lognormal pore size distribution having median in the range of 17.74-26.29 mu m for the investigated scaffolds. The results of extensive in vitro ion release study revealed passive degradation with a reduced Mg2+ release and slow but sustained release of Sr2+ from strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds. Taken together, the present study unequivocally illustrates that the newly designed Sr-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds with good strength reliability could be used for biomedical applications requiring consistent Sr2+-release, while the scaffold degrades in physiological medium. Statement of significance The study investigates the additive manufacturing of scaffolds based on different strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate bone cements by means of three-dimensional powder printing technique (3DPP). Magnesium phosphates were chosen due to their higher biodegradability compared to calcium phosphates, which is due to both a higher solubility as well as the absence of phase changes (to low soluble hydroxyapatite) in vivo. Since strontium ions are known to promote bone formation by stimulating osteoblast growth, we aimed to establish such a highly degradable magnesium phosphate ceramic with an enhanced bioactivity for new bone ingrowth. After post-processing, mechanical strengths of up to 36.7 MPa (compression), 24.2 MPa (bending) and 10.7 MPa (tension) could be achieved. Simultaneously, the failure reliability of those bioceramic implant materials, measured by Weibull modulus calculations, were in the range of 4.3-8.8. Passive dissolution studies in vitro proved an ion release of Mg2+ and PO43- as well as Sr2+, which is fundamental for in vivo degradation and a bone growth promoting effect. In our opinion, this work broadens the range of bioceramic bone replacement materials suitable for additive manufacturing processing. The high biodegradability of MPC ceramics together with the anticipated promoting effect on osseointegration opens up the way for a patient-specific treatment with the prospect of a fast and complete healing of bone fractures. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of particle size of sand and surface asperities of reinforcement on their interface shear behaviour

This paper investigates the effect of particle size of sand and the surface asperities of reinforcing material on their interlocking mechanism and its influence on the interfacial shear strength under direct sliding condition. Three sands of different sizes with similar morphological characteristics and four different types of reinforcing materials with different surface features were used in this study. Interface direct shear tests on these materials were performed in a specially developed symmetric loading interface direct shear test setup. Morphological characteristics of sand particles were determined from digital image analysis and the surface roughness of the reinforcing materials was measured using an analytical expression developed for this purpose. Interface direct shear tests at three different normal stresses were carried out by shearing the sand on the reinforcing material fixed to a smooth surface. Test results revealed that the peak interfacial friction and dilation angles are hugely dependent upon the interlocking between the sand particles and the asperities of reinforcing material, which in turn depends on the relative size of sand particles and asperities. Asperity ratio (AS/D-50) of interlocking materials, which is defined as the ratio of asperity spacing of the reinforcing material and the mean particle size of sand was found to govern the interfacial shear strength with highest interfacial strength measured when the asperity ratio was equal to one, which represents the closest fitting of sand particles into the asperities. It was also understood that the surface roughness of the reinforcing material influences the shear strength to an extent, the influence being more pronounced in coarser particles. Shear bands in the interface shear tests were analysed through image segmentation technique and it was observed that the ratio of shear band thickness (t) to the median particle size (D-50) was maximum when the AS/D-50 was equal to one. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.