Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Time-Domain Measurement of Voltage Induction by Transient EM Fields

An efficient measurement technique for studying the effect of transient electromagnetic fields under controlled conditions has been described. Broad-band TEM fields with a rise-time of a few nanoseconds were generated using a stripline method. Theoretical results are obtained and experimental measurements which confirm these results are described. The work will form the basis for a study of the susceptibility of digital integrated circuits and their interconnections to transient electromagnetic fields.

Measurement of the acoustical impedance of a black box at low frequencies using a shorter impedance tube

For the experimental evaluation of the acoustical impedance of a termination by the impedance-tube method at low frequencies, the length of the impedance tube is a problem. In the present paper, the method of exact analysis of standing waves developed by the authors for the stationary medium as well as for mean flow, has been extended for measurement of the acoustical impedance of a termination at low frequencies. The values of the tube attenuation factor and the wave number at the low frequency of interest are established from the experiment conducted, with the given impedance tube, at a higher frequency. Then, exciting the tube at the desired low frequency it is sufficient to measure sound pressure at three differenct locations (not necessarily the minima) in order to evaluate reflection coefficient and hence the impedance of the termination at that frequency.

Compact fiber Bragg grating dynamic strain sensor cum broadband thermometer for thermally unstable ambience

An instrument for simultaneous measurement of dynamic strain and temperature in a thermally unstable ambience has been proposed, based on fiber Bragg grating technology. The instrument can function as a compact and stand-alone broadband thermometer and a dynamic strain gauge. It employs a source wavelength tracking procedure for linear dependence of the output on the measurand, offering high dynamic range. Two schemes have been demonstrated with their relative merits. As a thermometer, the present instrumental configuration can offer a linear response in excess of 500 degrees C that can be easily extended by adding a suitable grating and source without any alteration in the procedure. Temperature sensitivity is about 0.06 degrees C for a bandwidth of 1 Hz. For the current grating, the upper limit of strain measurement is about 150 mu epsilon with a sensitivity of about 80 n epsilon Hz(-1/2). The major source of uncertainty associated with dynamic strain measurement is the laser source intensity noise, which is of broad spectral band. A low noise source device or the use of optical power regulators can offer improved performance. The total harmonic distortion is less than 0.5% up to about 50 mu epsilon, 1.2% at 100 mu epsilon and about 2.3% at 150 mu epsilon. Calibrated results of temperature and strain measurement with the instrument have been presented. Traces of ultrasound signals recorded by the system at 200 kHz, in an ambience of 100-200 degrees C temperature fluctuation, have been included. Also, the vibration spectrum and engine temperature of a running internal combustion engine has been recorded as a realistic application of the system.

Effect of pulse profile variations on measurement of eccentricity in orbits of Cen X-3 and SMC X-1

It has long been argued that better timing precision allowed by satellites like Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) will allow us to measure the orbital eccentricity and the angle of periastron of some of the bright persistent high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) and hence a possible measurement of apsidal motion in these system. Measuring the rate of apsidal motion allows one to estimate the apsidal motion constant of the mass losing companion star and hence allows for the direct testing of the stellar structure models for these giant stars present in the HMXBs. In the present paper, we use the archival RXTE data of two bright persistent sources, namely Cen X-3 and SMC X-1, to measure the very small orbital eccentricity and the angle of periastron. We find that the small variations in the pulse profiles of these sources, rather than the intrinsic time resolution provided by RXTE, limit the accuracy with which we can measure arrival time of the pulses from these sources. This influences the accuracy with which one can measure the orbital parameters, especially the very small eccentricity and the angle of periastron in these sources. The observations of SMC X-1 in the year 2000 were taken during the high-flux state of the source and we could determine the orbital eccentricity and omega using this data set.

Measurement of shock stand-off distance on a 120 degrees blunt cone model at hypersonic Mach number in Argon

The flow around a 120 degrees blunt cone model with a base radius of 60mm has been visualised at Mach 14.8 and 9.1 using argon as the test gas, at the newly established high speed schlieren facility in the IISc hypersonic shock tunnel HST2. The experimental shock stand off distance around the blunt cone is compared with that obtained using a commercial CFD package. The computed values of shock stand off distance of the blunt cone is found to agree reasonably well with the experimental data.

High-precision measurement of hyperfine structure in the D lines of alkali atoms

We have measured hyperfine structure in the first-excited P state (D lines) of all the naturally occurring alkali atoms. We use high-resolution laser spectroscopy to resolve hyperfine transitions, and measure intervals by locking the frequency shift produced by an acousto-optic modulator to the difference between two transitions. In most cases, the hyperfine coupling constants derived from our measurements improve previous values significantly.

Stability Training and Measurement System for Sportsperson (P84)

Balance and stability are very important for everybody and especially for sports-person who undergo extreme physical activities. Balance and stability exercises not only have a great impact on the performance of the sportsperson but also play a pivotal role in their rehabilitation. Therefore, it is very essential to have knowledge about a sportsperson’s balance and also to quantify the same. In this work, we propose a system consisting of a wobble board, with a gyro enhanced orientation sensor and a motion display for visual feedback to help the sportsperson improve their stability. The display unit gives in real time the orientation of the wobble board, which can help the sportsperson to apply necessary corrective forces to maintain neutral position. The system is compact and portable. We also quantify balance and stability using power spectral density. The sportsperson is made stand on the wobble board and the angular orientation of the wobble board is recorded for each 0.1 second interval. The signal is analized using discrete Fourier transforms. The power of this signal is related to the stability of the subject. This procedure is used to measure the balance and stability of an elite cricket team. Representative results are shown below: Table 1 represents power comparison of two subjects and Table 2 represents power comparison of left leg and right leg of one subject. This procedure can also be used in clinical practice to monitor improvement in stability dysfunction of sportsperson with injuries or other related problems undergoing rehabilitation.

Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible futurescenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India,which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response time measurement in flow induced signal generation on semiconductors

Measurable electrical signal is generated when a gas flows over a variety of solids, including doped semiconductors, even at the modest speed of a few meters per second. The underlying mechanism is an interesting interplay of Bernoulli's principle and the Seebeck effect. The electrical signal depends on the square of Mach number (M) and is proportional to the Seebeck coefficient (S) of the solids. Here we present experimental estimate of the response time of the signal rise and fall process, i.e. how fast the semiconductor materials respond to a steady flow as soon as it is set on or off. A theoretical model is also presented to understand the process and the dependence of the response time on the nature and physical dimensions of the semiconductor material used and they are compared with the experimental observations. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new approach for simple and rapid shape measurement of objects with surface discontinuities

A new approach for unwrapping phase maps, obtained during the measurement of 3-D surfaces using sinusoidal structured light projection technique, is proposed. "Takeda's method" is used to obtain the wrapped phase map. Proposed method of unwrapping makes use of an additional image of the object captured under the illumination of a specifically designed color-coded pattern. The new approach demonstrates, for the first time, a method of producing reliable unwrapping of objects even with surface discontinuities from a single-phase map. It is shown to be significantly faster and reliable than temporal phase unwrapping procedure that uses a complete exponential sequence. For example, if a measurement with the accuracy obtained by interrogating the object with S fringes in the projected pattern is carried out with both the methods, new method requires only 2 frames as compared to (log(2)S +1) frames required by the later method.

Measurement of air leakage in air-handling units and air conditioning ducts

The purpose of this article is to report the experience of design and testing of orifice plate-based flow measuring systems for evaluation of air leakages in components of air conditioning systems. Two of the flow measuring stations were designed with a beta value of 0.405 and 0.418. The third was a dual path unit with orifice plates of beta value 0.613 and 0.525. The flow rates covered with all the four were from 4-94 l/s and the range of Reynolds numbers is from 5600 to 76,000. The coefficients of discharge were evaluated and compared with the Stolz equation. Measured C-d values are generally higher than those obtained from the equation, the deviations being larger in the low Reynolds number region. Further, it is observed that a second-degree polynomial is inadequate to relate the pressure drop and flow rate. The lower Reynolds number limits set by standards appear to be somewhat conservative.

Hall thruster sequencer using Intel-8051 microcontroller for ion thrust measurement

Hall thrusters, such as Stationary Plasma Thruster (SPT), have been widely used on board modern satellites placed in geo-synchronows orbits for reasons such as orbit maintenance, repositioning and attitude control. In order to study the performance of the stationary plasma thruster, the thrust produced by it has been measured, using a thrust balance with strain gauge sensors under vacuum conditions, by activating the thruster. This activation of thruster has been carried out by switching ON and switching OFF of the necessary power supplies and control of other feed system such as the propellant flow in a particular sequence. Hitherto, these operations were done manually in the required sequence. This paper reports the attempt made to automate the sequential operation of the power supplies and the necessary control valves of the feed system using Intel 8051 microcontroller. This automation has made thrust measurements easier and more sophisticated.

On the theory of the indentation test for the measurement of tensile strength of brittle materials

A theoretical solution has been obtained for the state of stress in a rectangular plate under a pair of symmetrically placed rigid indenters. The stress distributions along the two central axes have been calculated for a square plate assuming the pressure distribution under the indenters as uniform, parabolic and one resulting from 'constant displacement' on a semiinfinite boundary, for different ratios of indenter-width to side of square. The results are compared with those of photoelastic analysis of Berenbaum and Brodie and the validity of the solution is discussed. The solution has been extended to orthotropic materials and numerical results for one type of coal are given.