Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Identification of Early Biomarkers during Acetaminophen-Induced Hepatotoxicity by Fourier Transform Infrared Microspectroscopy

Acetaminophen is a widely prescribed drug used to relieve pain and fever; however, it is a leading cause of drug-induced liver injury and a burden on public healthcare. In this study, hepatotoxicity in mice post oral dosing of acetaminophen was investigated using liver and sera samples with Fourier Transform Infrared microspectroscopy. The infrared spectra of acetaminophen treated livers in BALB/ mice show decrease in glycogen, increase in amounts of cholesteryl esters and DNA respectively. Rescue experiments using L-methionine demonstrate that depletion in glycogen and increase in DNA are abrogated with pre-treatment, but not post-treatment, with L-methionine. This indicates that changes in glycogen and DNA are more sensitive to the rapid depletion of glutathione. Importantly, analysis of sera identified lowering of glycogen and increase in DNA and chlolesteryl esters earlier than increase in alanine aminotransferase, which is routinely used to diagnose liver damage. In addition, these changes are also observed in C57BL/6 and Nos2(-/-) mice. There is no difference in the kinetics of expression of these three molecules in both strains of mice, the extent of damage is similar and corroborated with ALT and histological analysis. Quantification of cytokines in sera showed increase upon APAP treatment. Although the levels of Tnf alpha and Ifn gamma in sera are not significantly affected, Nos2(-/-) mice display lower Il6 but higher Il10 levels during this acute model of hepatotoxicity. Overall, this study reinforces the growing potential of Fourier Transform Infrared microspectroscopy as a fast, highly sensitive and label-free technique for non-invasive diagnosis of liver damage. The combination of Fourier Transform Infrared microspectroscopy and cytokine analysis is a powerful tool to identify multiple biomarkers, understand differential host responses and evaluate therapeutic regimens during liver damage and, possibly, other diseases.

A LOWER INITIAL ABUNDANCE OF SHORT-LIVED Ca-41 IN THE EARLY SOLAR SYSTEM AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR SOLAR SYSTEM FORMATION

The short-lived radionuclide Ca-41 plays an important role in constraining the immediate astrophysical environment and the formation timescale of the nascent solar system due to its extremely short half-life (0.1 Myr). Nearly 20 years ago, the initial ratio of Ca-41/Ca-40 in the solar system was determined to be (1.41 +/- 0.14) x 10(-8), primarily based on two Ca-Al-rich Inclusions (CAIs) from the CV chondrite Efremovka. With an advanced analytical technique for isotopic measurements, we reanalyzed the potassium isotopic compositions of the two Efremovka CAIs and inferred the initial ratios of Ca-41/Ca-40 to be (2.6 +/- 0.9) x 10(-9) and (1.4 +/- 0.6) x 10(-9) (2 sigma), a factor of 7-10 lower than the previously inferred value. Considering possible thermal processing that led to lower Al-26/Al-27 ratios in the two CAIs, we propose that the true solar system initial value of Ca-41/Ca-40 should have been similar to 4.2 x 10(-9). Synchronicity could have existed between Al-26 and Ca-41, indicating a uniform distribution of the two radionuclides at the time of CAI formation. The new initial Ca-41 abundance is 4-16 times lower than the calculated value for steady-state galactic nucleosynthesis. Therefore, Ca-41 could have originated as part of molecular cloud materials with a free decay time of 0.2-0.4 Myr. Alternative possibilities, such as a last-minute input from a stellar source and early solar system irradiation, could not be definitively ruled out. This underscores the need for more data from diverse CAIs to determine the true astrophysical origin of Ca-41.

All flavours of El Nino have similar early subsurface origins

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, characterized by anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific, affects climate across the globe(1). El Ninos occur every 2-7 years, whereas the El Nino/Southern Oscillation itself varies on decadal timescales in frequency and amplitude, with a different spatial pattern of surface anomalies(2) each time the tropical Pacific undergoes a regime shift. Recent work has shown that Bjerknes feedback(3,4) (coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean through changes in equatorial winds driven by changes in sea surface temperature owing to suppression of equatorial upwelling in the east Pacific) is not necessary(5) for the development of an El Nino. Thus it is unclear what remains constant through regimes and is crucial for producing the anomalies recognized as El Nino. Here we show that the subsurface process of discharging warm waters always begins in the boreal summer/autumn of the year before the event (up to 18 months before the peak) independent of regimes, identifying the discharge process as fundamental to the El Nino onset. It is therefore imperative that models capture this process accurately to further our theoretical understanding, improve forecasts and predict how the El Nino/Southern Oscillation may respond to climate change.

Full Chemical Kinetic Simulation of Biogas Early Phase Combustion in SI Engines

This paper presents computational work on the biogas early phase combustion in spark ignition (SI) engines using detailed chemical kinetics. Specifically, the early phase combustion is studied to assess the effect of various ignition parameters such as spark plug location, spark energy, and number of spark plugs. An integrated version of the KIVA-3V and CHEMKIN codes was developed and used for the simulations utilizing detailed kinetics involving 325 reactions and 53 species The results show that location of the spark plug and local flow field play an important role. A central plug configuration, which is associated with higher local flow velocities in the vicinity of the spark plug, showed faster initial combustion. Although a dual plug configuration shows the highest rate of fuel consumption, it is comparable to the rate exhibited by the central plug case. The radical species important in the initiation of combustion are identified, and their concentrations are monitored during the early phase of combustion. The concentration of these radicals is also observed to correlate very well with the above-mentioned trend.Thus, the role of these radicals in promoting faster combustion has been clearly established. It is also observed that the minimum ignition energy required to initiate a self-sustained flame depends on the flow field condition in the vicinity of the spark plug.Increasing the methane content in the biogas has shown improved combustion.

Loss ratio of the EDF scheduling policy with early discarding technique

This paper considers a firm real-time M/M/1 system, where jobs have stochastic deadlines till the end of service. A method for approximately specifying the loss ratio of the earliest-deadline-first scheduling policy along with exit control through the early discarding technique is presented. This approximation uses the arrival rate and the mean relative deadline, normalized with respect to the mean service time, for exponential and uniform distributions of relative deadlines. Simulations show that the maximum approximation error is less than 4% and 2% for the two distributions, respectively, for a wide range of arrival rates and mean relative deadlines. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Constraints on Be-10 and Ca-41 distribution in the early solar system from Al-26 and Be-10 studies of Efremovka CAIs

Three refractory coarse grained CAIs from the Efremovka CV3 chondrite, one (E65) previously shown to have formed with live Ca-41, were studied by ion microprobe for their Al-26-Mg-26 and Be-10-B-10 systematic in order to better understand the origin of Be-10. The high precision Al-Mg data and the inferred Al-26/Al-27 values attest that the precursors of the three CAIs evolved in the solar nebula over a period of few hundred thousand years before last melting-crystallization events. The initial Be-10/Be-9 ratios and delta B-10 values defined by the Be-10 isochrons for the three Efremovka CAIs are similar within errors. The CAI Be-10 abundance in published data underscores the large range for initial Be-10/Be-9 ratios. This is contrary to the relatively small range of Al-26/Al-27 variations in CAIs around the canonical ratio. Two models that could explain the origin of this large Be-10/Be-9 range are assessed from the collateral variations predicted for the initial delta B-10 values: (i) closed system decay of Be-10 from a ``canonical'' Be-10/Be-9 ratio and (ii) formation of CAIs from a mixture of solid precursors and nebula gas irradiated during up to a few hundred thousand years. The second scenario is shown to be the most consistent with the data. This shows that the major fraction of Be-10 in CAIs was produced by irradiation of refractory grains, while contributions of galactic cosmic rays trapping and early solar wind irradiation are less dominant. The case for Be-10 production by solar cosmic rays irradiation of solid refractory precursors poses a conundrum for Ca-41 because the latter is easily produced by irradiation and should be more abundant than what is observed in CAIs. Be-10 production by irradiation from solar energetic particles requires high Ca-41 abundance in early solar system, however, this is not observed in CAIs. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early osseointegration of a strontium containing glass ceramic in a rabbit model

The most important property of a bone cement or a bone substitute in load bearing orthopaedic implants is good integration with host bone with reduced bone resorption and increased bone regeneration at the implant interface. Long term implantation of metal-based joint replacements often results in corrosion and particle release, initiating chronic inflammation leading onto osteoporosis of host bone. An alternative solution is the coating of metal implants with hydroxyapatite (HA) or bioglass or the use of bulk bioglass or HA-based composites. In the above perspective, the present study reports the in vivo biocompatibility and bone healing of the strontium (Sr)-stabilized bulk glass ceramics with the nominal composition of 4.5SiO(2)-3Al(2)O(3)-1.5P(2)O(5)-3SrO-2SrF(2) during short term implantation of up to 12 weeks in rabbit animal model. The progression of healing and bone regeneration was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed using fluorescence microscopy, histological analysis and micro-computed tomography. The overall assessment of the present study establishes that the investigated glass ceramic is biocompatible in vivo with regards to local effects after short term implantation in rabbit animal model. Excellent healing was observed, which is comparable to that seen in response to a commercially available implant of HA-based bioglass alone. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An early in-situ stress signature of the AlN-Si pre-growth interface for successful integration of nitrides with (111) Si

The integration of Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) grown group III-A nitride device stacks on Si (111) substrates is critically dependent on the quality of the first AlN buffer layer grown. A Si surface that is both oxide-free and smooth is a primary requirement for nucleating such layers. A single parameter, the AlN layer growth stress, is shown to be an early (within 50 nm), clear (<0.5 GPa versus > 1GPa), and fail-safe indicator of the pre-growth surface, and the AlN quality required for successful epitaxy. Grain coalescence model for stress generation is used to correlate growth stress, the AlN-Si interface, and crystal quality. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Better early osteogenesis of electroconductive hydroxyapatite-calcium titanate composites in a rabbit animal model

In view of the fact that bone healing can be enhanced due to external electric field application, it is important to assess the influence of the implant conductivity on the bone regeneration in vivo. To address this issue, this study reports the in vivo biocompatibility property of multistage spark plasma sintered hydroxyapatite (HA)-80 wt % calcium titanate (CaTiO3) composites and monolithic HA, which have widely different conductivity property (14 orders of magnitude difference). The ability of bone regeneration was assessed by implantation in cylindrical femoral bone defects of rabbit animal model for varying time period of 1, 4, and 12 weeks. The overall assessment of the histology results suggests that the progressive healing of bone defects around HA-80 wt % CaTiO3 is associated with a better efficacy with respect to (w.r.t) early stage neobone formation, which is histomorphometrically around 140% higher than monolithic HA. Overall, this study demonstrates that the in vivo biocompatibility property of HA-80 wt % CaTiO3 with respect to local effects after 12 weeks of implantation is not compromised both qualitatively and quantitatively, and a comparison with control implant (HA) points toward the critical role of electrical conductivity on better early stage bone regeneration. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 102A: 842-851, 2014.

A Study of Early Afterdepolarizations in a Model for Human Ventricular Tissue

Sudden cardiac death is often caused by cardiac arrhythmias. Recently, special attention has been given to a certain arrhythmogenic condition, the long-QT syndrome, which occurs as a result of genetic mutations or drug toxicity. The underlying mechanisms of arrhythmias, caused by the long-QT syndrome, are not fully understood. However, arrhythmias are often connected to special excitations of cardiac cells, called early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are depolarizations during the repolarizing phase of the action potential. So far, EADs have been studied mainly in isolated cardiac cells. However, the question on how EADs at the single-cell level can result in fibrillation at the tissue level, especially in human cell models, has not been widely studied yet. In this paper, we study wave patterns that result from single-cell EAD dynamics in a mathematical model for human ventricular cardiac tissue. We induce EADs by modeling experimental conditions which have been shown to evoke EADs at a single-cell level: by an increase of L-type Ca currents and a decrease of the delayed rectifier potassium currents. We show that, at the tissue level and depending on these parameters, three types of abnormal wave patterns emerge. We classify them into two types of spiral fibrillation and one type of oscillatory dynamics. Moreover, we find that the emergent wave patterns can be driven by calcium or sodium currents and we find phase waves in the oscillatory excitation regime. From our simulations we predict that arrhythmias caused by EADs can occur during normal wave propagation and do not require tissue heterogeneities. Experimental verification of our results is possible for experiments at the cell-culture level, where EADs can be induced by an increase of the L-type calcium conductance and by the application of I-Kr blockers, and the properties of the emergent patterns can be studied by optical mapping of the voltage and calcium.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Long-term effects of Macroternies termites, herbivores and annual early fire on woody undergrowth community in Sudanian woodland, Burkina Faso

Termites, herbivores and fire are recognized as major guilds that structure woody plant communities in African savanna and woodland ecosystems. An understanding of their interaction is crucial to design appropriate management regimes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term impacts of herbivore, fire and termite activities on regeneration of trees. Permanent experimental quadrats were established in 1992 in the Sudanian woodland of Burkina Faso subjected to grazing by livestock and annual early fire and the control. Within the treatment quadrats, an inventory of the woody undergrowth community was conducted on termitaria occupied by Macrotermes subhyalinus, extended termitosphere (within 5 m radius from the mound base) and adjacent area (beyond 5 m from the mound base). Hierarchical analysis was performed to determine significant differences in species richness, abundance and diversity indices among vegetation patches within fire and herbivory treatments. Grazed quadrats had significantly (P < 0.001) more species and stem density of woody undergrowth than non-grazed quadrats but maintained similar level of species richness and stem density of woody undergrowth on termitaria. There were not significant differences (P>0.05) in species richness and stem density between burnt and unburnt quadrats. Termitaria supported a highly diverse woody undergrowth with higher stem density than either the extended termitosphere or rest of quadrats. The density of woody undergrowth was significantly related with mature trees of selected species on termitaria (R-2 = 0.593; P<0.001) than that on the extended termitosphere (R-2 = 0.333; P<0.001) and adjacent area (R-2 = 0.197; P<0.001). It can be concluded that termites facilitate the regeneration of woody species while grazing and annual early fire play a minor role in the regeneration of woody species. The current policy that prohibits grazing should be revised to accommodate the interests of livestock herders. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.