Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

A quinazoline derivative as quick-response red-shifted reporter for nanomolar Al3+ and applicable to living cell staining

A newly synthesized and structurally characterized quinazoline derivative (L) has been shown to act as a quick-response chemosensor for Al3+ with a high selectivity over other metal ions in water-DMSO. In the presence of Al3+, L shows a red-shifted ratiometric enhancement in fluorescence as a result of internal charge transfer and chelation-enhanced fluorescence through the inhibition of a photo-induced electron transfer mechanism. This probe detects Al3+ at concentrations as low as 1.48 nM in 100 mM HEPES buffer (DMSO-water, 1 : 9 v/v) at biological pH with a very short response time (15-20 s). L was applied to biological imaging to validate its utility as a fluorescent probe for monitoring Al3+ ions in living cells, illustrating its value in practical environmental and biological systems.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

A rhodamine-based `turn-on' Al3+ ion-selective reporter and the resultant complex as a secondary sensor for F- ion are applicable to living cell staining

A newly designed fluorescent aluminum(III) complex (L'-Al; 2) of a structurally characterized non-fluorescent rhodamine Schiff base (L) has been isolated in pure form and characterized using spectroscopic and physico-chemical methods with theoretical density functional theory (DFT) support. On addition of Al(III) ions to a solution of L in HEPES buffer (1 mM, pH 7.4; EtOH-water, 1 : 3 v/v) at 25 degrees C, the systematic increase in chelation-enhanced fluorescence (CHEF) enables the detection of Al(III) ions as low as 60 nM with high selectivity, unaffected by the presence of competitive ions. Interestingly, the Al(III) complex (L'-Al; 2) is specifically able to detect fluoride ions by quenching the fluorescence in the presence of large amounts of other anions in the HEPES buffer (1 mM, pH 7.4) at 25 degrees C. On the basis of our experimental and theoretical findings, the addition of Al3+ ions to a solution of L helps to generate a new fluorescence peak at 590 nm, due to the selective binding of Al3+ ions with L in a 1 : 1 ratio with a binding constant (K) of 8.13 x 10(4) M-1. The Schiff base L shows no cytotoxic effect, and it can therefore be employed for determining the intracellular concentration of Al3+ and F-ions by 2 in living cells using fluorescence microscopy.