Ship-Mounted Real-Time Surface Observational System on board Indian Vessels for Validation and Refinement of Model Forcing Fields

A network of ship-mounted real-time Automatic Weather Stations integrated with Indian geosynchronous satellites Indian National Satellites (INSATs)] 3A and 3C, named Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services Real-Time Automatic Weather Stations (I-RAWS), is established. The purpose of I-RAWS is to measure the surface meteorological-ocean parameters and transmit the data in real time in order to validate and refine the forcing parameters (obtained from different meteorological agencies) of the Indian Ocean Forecasting System (INDOFOS). Preliminary validation and intercomparison of analyzed products obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using the data collected from I-RAWS were carried out. This I-RAWS was mounted on board oceanographic research vessel Sagar Nidhi during a cruise across three oceanic regimes, namely, the tropical Indian Ocean, the extratropical Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean. The results obtained from such a validation and intercomparison, and its implications with special reference to the usage of atmospheric model data for forcing ocean model, are discussed in detail. It is noticed that the performance of analysis products from both atmospheric models is similar and good; however, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts air temperature over the extratropical Indian Ocean and wind speed in the Southern Ocean are marginally better.

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO2 using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO2-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (285-570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO2 and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO2-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO2-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.

Physiological and subjective thermal response from Indians

A controlled laboratory experiment was carried out on forty Indian male college students for evaluating the effect of indoor thermal environment on occupants' response and thermal comfort. During experiment, indoor temperature varied from 21 degrees C to 33 degrees C, and the variables like relative humidity, airflow, air temperature and radiant temperature were recorded along with skin (T-sk) and oral temperature (T-core) from the subjects. From T-sk and T-c, body temperature (T-b) was evaluated. Subjective Thermal Sensation Vote (TSV) was recorded using ASHRAE 7-point scale. In PMV model, Fanger's T-sk equation was used to accommodate adaptive response. Stepwise regression analysis result showed T-b was better predictor of TSV than T-sk and T-core. Regional skin temperature response, lower sweat threshold temperature with no dipping sweat and higher cutaneous sweating threshold temperature were observed as thermal adaptive responses. Using PMV model, thermal comfort zone was evaluated as (22.46-25.41) degrees C with neutral temperature of 23.91 degrees C, whereas using TSV response, wider comfort zone was estimated as (23.25-2632) degrees C with neutral temperature at 24.83 degrees C. It was observed that PMV-model overestimated the actual thermal response. Interestingly, these subjects were found to be less sensitive to hot but more sensitive to cold. A new TSV-PPD relation (PPDnew) was obtained with an asymmetric distribution of hot-cold thermal sensation response in Indians. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PMV model is insufficient to capture subjective thermal response from Indians

A controlled laboratory experiment was carried out on forty Indian male college students for evaluating the effect of indoor thermal environment on occupants' response and thermal comfort. During experiment, indoor temperature varied from 21 degrees C to 33 degrees C, and the variables like relative humidity, airflow, air temperature and radiant temperature were recorded along with subject's physiological parameters (skin (T-sk) and oral temperature (T-c)) and subjective thermal sensation responses (TSV). From T-sk and T-c, body temperature (T-b) was evaluated. Subjective Thermal Sensation Vote (TSV) was recorded using ASHRAE 7-point scale. In PMV model, Fanger's T-sk equation was used to accommodate adaptive response. Step-wise regression analysis result showed T-b was better predictor of TSV than T-sk and T-c. Regional skin temperature response, suppressed sweating without dipping, lower sweating threshold temperature and higher cutaneous threshold for sweating were observed as thermal adaptive responses. These adaptive responses cannot be considered in PMV model. To incorporate subjective adaptive response, mean skin temperature (T-sk) is considered in dry heat loss calculation. Along with these, PMV-model and other two methodologies are adopted to calculate PMV values and results are compared. However, recent literature is limited to measure the sweat rate in Indians and consideration of constant Ersw in PMV model needs to be corrected. Using measured T-sk in PMV model (Method(1)), thermal comfort zone corresponding to 0.5 <= PMV <= 0.5 was evaluated as (22.46-25.41) degrees C with neutral temperature of 23.91 degrees C, similarly while using TSV response, wider comfort zone was estimated as (23.25-26.32) degrees C with neutral temperature at 24.83 degrees C, which was further increased to with TSV-PPDnew, relation. It was observed that PMV-model overestimated the actual thermal response. Interestingly, these subjects were found to be less sensitive to hot but more sensitive to cold. A new TSV-PPD relation (PPDnew) was obtained from the population distribution of TSV response with an asymmetric distribution of hot-cold thermal sensation response from Indians. The calculations of human thermal stress according to steady state energy balance models used on PMV model seem to be inadequate to evaluate human thermal sensation of Indians. Relevance to industry: The purpose of this paper is to estimate thermal comfort zone and optimum temperature for Indians. It also highlights that PMV model seems to be inadequate to evaluate subjective thermal perception in Indians. These results can be used in feedback control of HVAC systems in residential and industrial buildings. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm.